Hard News: Why we thought what we thought
287 Responses
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
So if a right-leaning voter such at Matthew Hooten were to defect from National, where’s he going to go? He’s not likely to cross the fence to Labour or the Greens, is he?
When Mark Sainsbury asked Hooten why he'd be voting National despite his having just clobbered Michelle Boag with his insistence that Key was corrupt, Hooten went all hand on heart about it coming down to the economy.
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mccx, in reply to
Hooten specifically? It's either National or ACT. As he says, his ideological preferences outweigh Dirty Politics and related issues.
Other right-leaning voters? Some could move to the Conservatives and some to NZ First, but for many it's National or nothing, which may be why polls haven't moved drastically.
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"personal statement from Matthew Hooten"
ahem - Hooton
"personal statement from Matthew Hooton"
in the interests of posterity... -
Michael Meyers, in reply to
The economy thing annoys me. National has claimed credit for all the good things in the past 6 years, blamed all the bad things on the GFC, and conveniently everything before the 2008 election was Labour's fault rather than the GFC. I'm surprised they have got away with that spin.
I'm not saying that National have handled the economy badly but it feels like any muppet could've take the NZ economy out of recession following global financial crisis.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Hooton
Thank you.
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Michael Meyers, in reply to
Hooton ahem... oops. Won't get that one wrong again.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
The economy thing annoys me. ...
I’m not saying that National have handled the economy badly but it feels like any muppet could’ve take the NZ economy out of recession following global financial crisis.Hooton et al will quote figures when it suits, but the persistent mantra, whether it's him, Boag, or Odgers, is lower taxes. The orthodoxy seems to be straight from the "deficits don't matter" 90s Bush era. Bugger the debt, it's lower taxes, and the sacrosanct nature of the grammar zone.
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Angela Hart, in reply to
I'm not saying that National have handled the economy badly but
I can't get over the frequent references to the state Labour left the economy in when we've gone from paying down debt and being indebted to the tune of (I haven't checked exactly) something like 10 billion, to constantly borrowing and owing about 60 billion. How is that good handling of the economy when there hasn't been employment growth either? Someone please correct my figures if they are badly out.
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I think people need to say national have done a terrible job of managing the economy - lets not beat about the bush or rely on a natural disaster to make the books look better than they would
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nzlemming, in reply to
No – this is a very widespread misconception. The conversation is quoted in Hager’s book, on page 46. It’s noted as “Cameron Slater, Facebook messaging to and from Judith Collins, 11 September 2011.”
Correct, and the timestamp information is important if you remember that FB stamps everything with UTC which is 11-13 hours different (depending on BST and DST)
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BenWilson, in reply to
Although it got me thinking: it feels like there just aren’t enough credible centre-right parties around.
I think the problem is more that there aren't any credible far right parties. So National is actually stuck there, and it's not to their advantage. It's hard to even claim to be center right when there is only one crooked wingnut to the right of you, and between you and the center left are 3 other parties.
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Greg Dawson, in reply to
No – this is a very widespread misconception. The conversation is quoted in Hager’s book, on page 46. It’s noted as “Cameron Slater, Facebook messaging to and from Judith Collins, 11 September 2011.”
Ah, thankyou for clarifying. Also to nzlemming for telling me its UTC not localised time :)
I’m not going to start throwing stones at people messaging each other in their lunch breaks, on account of my silica based residence.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Oh woops ,guess I didn't care enough. Hoot on
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
The economy thing annoys me
Peter Lyons at the Harold puts things in perspective.
ETA The comments section suggests some people really don't understand satire or have a sense of humour.
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oga, in reply to
Is it just me, or is my perception of Labour as being basically a centre-right party that leans to the left correct? I don't think Labour does enough lefty stuff to be considered a centre-left party. I guess my impressions are still tainted by Rogernomics.
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Roger Lacey, in reply to
Hooton ahem… oops. Won’t get that one wrong again.
Got to spell it correctly or it won't come up when they search the metadata.
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Paul Williams, in reply to
I don’t think Labour does enough lefty stuff to be considered a centre-left party. I guess my impressions are still tainted by Rogernomics.
I don't know where you fit a capital gains tax, for instance, into that perspective?
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nzlemming, in reply to
Is it just me, or is my perception of Labour as being basically a centre-right party that leans to the left correct? I don’t think Labour does enough lefty stuff to be considered a centre-left party. I guess my impressions are still tainted by Rogernomics.
Yeah, Labour lurched across to the right in the 80’s because fiscal!emergency, and some have never forgiven them for it (and never will). It was because Lange stopped for the “cup of tea” that Douglas and Prebble spun out to form ACT (and the irony of ACT emerging from Labour must have MJ Savage doing rotisserie impressions) but they weren’t the only Members who thought the party needed to do this. This was “dry economic theory” as in don’t water the crop, let it make its own way and the wealth will trickle down. Yeah, right.
Through the Clark government, many of the “economic dry’s” like Goff and King still held a lot of influence and the market approach, diluted but still present, was still the order of government. Key inherited and incredibly deregulated economy which he’s proceeded to stripmine. With restructure within the Labour party, especially around democratic decision-making and candidate/leader selection, the balance appears to be swinging back to a more left approach, though the proof of the pudding will be in the eating ;-)
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Labour as being basically a centre-right party that leans to the left correct?
Personally I'm odd, because I don't look at left ,right centre. I see Labour as working class, middle of the road so their roots are still intact. I see Greens advertising all over the Ponse and Herne Bay so I suspect they are heading to target the middle class with their roots still intact. I see IMP as addressing the disenfranchised as a target. For me, I'd love 3 votes because what a wonderful force all of these Parties could make. They cover all bases, i.e most of the NZ population. If only peeps could get away from it being about them and them only, the force would be with us.
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Walter Nicholls, in reply to
we’ve gone from paying down debt and being indebted to the tune of (I haven’t checked exactly) something like 10 billion, to constantly borrowing and owing about 60 billion.
Perhaps someone clever than me can try and put this into perspective. Annual revenue of NZ Government is about $60 billion. - but that doesn't translate easily into a personal analogy, as nearly all "homeowners" cope with the idea of owing several times their annual income. They would expect not to have to sell off the pantry to service the mortgage, though.
My favourite (if that's the word) bugbear is this one: Govt operating deficit bigger than expected as tax take lags - did they really not expect the tax income to drop, given that National have consistently dropped tax rates (3 times) since taking power in 2008?
I'd really, really like to see a graph comparing fiscal forecasts with actuals over the last 10 years Keith Ng does this kind of thing extremely well.
Don't even get me started on the broken window fallacy in Chch. -
Alfie, in reply to
No – this is a very widespread misconception. The conversation is quoted in Hager’s book, on page 46. It’s noted as “Cameron Slater, Facebook messaging to and from Judith Collins, 11 September 2011.”
Except Greg O'Connor's name is redacted in the book and he is only referred to as [a police source].
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think O'Connor would be doing anything illegal if he had leaked Police video evidence to Slater, even if the motivation and morality involved is questionable. It's certainly not a good look for the cops to be cosying up to a vile blogger to discredit the victims of the Urewera raids after charges against them had been dropped. But it's much worse for the Minister of Police to be actively encouraging that sort of behaviour.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
is my perception of Labour as being basically a centre-right party that leans to the left correct?
No.
Or more accurately not in world terms. Seriously ACT might just get time of day as right wing in the US but even they would be slammed for some of their policies.
Both National and Labour are center left parties in the world sense and certainly in comparison to anything in the US. And that reflects New Zealand as a whole, which is fundamentally socialist, despite what some few right wing loonies might try and claim.
We certainly have nothing in New Zealand that would satisfy a true left wing voter. Good grief even under Labour we still had some of the lowest taxation in the developed world.
The (biggest) problem I have with National is that mostly their policies are pure ideology from the 70s, trickle down economics, management knows best and greed is good. There is forty years of political and economic science to which they seem oblivious. But even with those dumbass policies they still retain public health, public education, national superanuation and social welfare all of which would be abhorrent to any Republican in the US and pretty scary for many Democrats.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Is it just me
It's definitely not just you. Fair enough, I didn't really define the terms Left and Right, but I don't really want to either. Just wanted to say that the problem for National supporters who might actually be disgusted by the recent revelations is that there's just nothing on their right to move to. They're stuck with Peters and Dunne toward the center, or maybe the Maori Party. Dunne is somewhat tainted and Peters is highly socially conservative (and Craig even more so), which means right wing liberals have got nowhere to go. They have to suck it up, or they could refuse to vote. If they choose the second option, that's not a win for the right. At least with a viable ACT party that isn't crooked or stocked with social conservatives they had somewhere to go that would certainly ally with National, whilst giving them their protest signal.
This was always the trouble with National swallowing up the Right as a plan. It looks great if you think FPP. But that's not our system and it's strategically weak in any game of center control to find yourself not straddling the center. Which is how they ended up with quite a thin majority after only one term, despite the huge popularity of Key, and a nation weary of 9 years of Labour. It's bizarre that the party with MMPs biggest ever proportional tallies has found itself with such a weak hold on power. Basically, they still just don't get MMP. Winston Peters has been Kingmaker in this country for nearly 20 years because they could not grasp that their endless desire to push through right wing economic reform has placed him right on that sweet spot.
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Sacha, in reply to
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think O’Connor would be doing anything illegal if he had leaked Police video evidence to Slater
O'Connor is the head of the police staff union. He has no more right to share inquiry evidence than you or I do.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
which in reality are looking like being coalition partners, and the Greens might one day be the larger party.
They always have looked like they could work together and I doubt their policies are soo much the same ,it will be perfect because it’s about compromise. The Greens advantage is that they haven’t been in power to make mistakes. Goff when leader of Opposition did say they made mistakes and they believe they have learnt valuable lessons from it. That sort of comment never makes the papers. It’s a shame people get stuck on that. Like Rogernomics ( although completely different ) really . Douglas and Prebble . They went on to become Act. But Labour wears the badge.
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