Hard News: There is History
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A viroligist interviewed by Sean Plunkett said that while people had died of the disease in Mexico it seemed to be milder in those who'd caught it since. I wonder whether this strain is tougher on poorly nourished people than on the well-nourished (although I'm certainly not qualified to make any assumptions at all.) It just doesn't seem to make sense that a virus would become less virulent as it spreads. Who knows?
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It's hard to know how worried to be about this. Especially considering it seems like Kiwi kids are swine flu kids. The Google map of "confirmed" cases for swine flu the Herald is running (and I'm aware that the North Shore schoolkids aren't exactly "confirmed" yet) is interesting reading. There's North America, Europe, and here.
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Kiwi kids are swine flu kids
Heh! Yes, I was reflecting earlier that I learned what swine flu was in the 8am bulletin and by 8pm on the same day it had reached Auckland. It travels almost faster than news!
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Classic (and chilling) picture on the Stuff homepage as of right now - the Mexican army appears ready to shoot the virus on sight.
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Classic (and chilling) picture on the Stuff homepage as of right now - the Mexican army appears ready to shoot the virus on sight.
Ha, that reminds me (in a dark, ironic way) of the Simpsons episode where the Osaka Flu sweeps Springfield and Wiggum has a go at shooting a virus-cloud.
I'm at a mental low-note to be getting this kind of news. I read the comic book version of The Stand a couple of weeks ago. Even hints of pandemics properly freak me out. King did right to base his book around a disease. It's the first half of the book that's scariest by far, much more than the second bit when the supernatural stuff kicks in. -
Classic (and chilling) picture on the Stuff homepage as of right now - the Mexican army appears ready to shoot the virus on sight.
Um yes... and considering my partner's grand niece has just started at Rangitoto (and her chances of having the plague) are pretty much non-existent, it's always nice to see that Russell is being the temperate and thoughtful one.
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I am always happy to see authorities taking things seriously. It makes me feel much safer, especially when I take the bus to work with people who are always coughing and spluttering (WTF! stay home!).
I read the comic book version of The Stand a couple of weeks ago. Even hints of pandemics properly freak me out. King did right to base his book around a disease. It's the first half of the book that's scariest by far, much more than the second bit when the supernatural stuff kicks in.
Have I got a discussion thread for you
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Survivors it's time to start stockpiling food and munitions.
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The Spanish Flu was spread by returning troops - on ships - these days things (and people) move so much faster
This morning I had to decide whether to send the kids to school - the flight from LAX those kids were on was probably full of kids returning from their school holidays who'll be heading off to school today. Add to that my daughter was exposed yesterday to at least one friend who flew in from the US that night (might well have been the flight from SFO though).
In the end we sent them off - with a history lesson of the previous great pandemic and instructions to stay away from any kids who'd been to the US these holidays for a few days (and not to demonise them)
On the other hand I seem to be coming down with something .....
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It just doesn't seem to make sense that a virus would become less virulent as it spreads. Who knows?
The second wave of infected less likely to be living with pigs.
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Jamie McKay at MCH has kindly kicked in a few links.
You can learn more about the 1918 pandemic in New Zealand here.
And also check out its impact on your local town or region:
The death rate amongst Auckland Maori who contracted the disease was 68.4% ...
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Hi boss, I think I might be coming down with the flue...
Actually just about the best thing that people could do is stay home if they feel sick.
Lots of studies have shown that the pillock who struggles valiantly into work does stuff all that is useful themselves and infects the whole workplace.
Really seriously, if you're sick the best thing you can do for your workplace is stay home.
It just doesn't seem to make sense that a virus would become less virulent as it spreads.
Assuming this is really a significant genetic shift in flu then as the virus spreads it will undergo genetic drift. The initial genetic shift is a large change in the sequence of the proteins on the surface of the virus. This seems to occur by shuffling genes between viruses in a host that has been infected with multiple viruses. In this case Mexican pigs.
With a large change the virus is completely different to strains that have been doing the rounds over the last 10-20 years. So the flu that you had last year won't be similar enough to this flu for your immune system to recognise it and then defend you. And the flu vaccine won't be much help (some help yes, just not much) either until they make a vaccine from this new virus. Of course as soon as they make a vaccine for this strain then it will protect you.
But as the virus spreads small changes occur, genetic drift. These small changes can make the virus more or less like other strains people have been exposed to. It is pretty much random. Sometimes strains can become more similar in which case you have some resistance and suffer less severe symptoms and last years vaccine will help more. Sometimes they become more different in which case they become more deadly.
However any change that makes the transmission easier tends to spread faster. Which makes very good sense.
While it does make evolutionary sense for viruses to not kill their hosts - over this kind of short period of time that evolutionary pressure has no effect. Any change in virulence we see over the next month or so is just random.
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South Island
Jeez, poor old Nightcaps.
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The second wave of infected less likely to be living with pigs.
I know this is said in a light tone, but it has absolutely nothing to do with subsequent spread.
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Oh, fuck it... come and get your Tainted Love.
(hat-tip: John Scalzi
Now, if you'd excuse me I have to go ostentatiously cough while consuming a bacon buttie outside a primary school...
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The second wave of infected less likely to be living with pigs.
"Few of the cases appear to have had any contact with live pigs" - from the Guardian.
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"Few of the cases appear to have had any contact with live pigs" - from the Guardian.
Idea for a new motto for Mexico City: "We don't live with pigs, you know?"
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The scariest thing about The Stand (my favourite Stephen King book) is the bit near the start that describes how the disease spread from the guys at the service station, from person to person far faster than any quarantine or public information could keep up. Far more real and terrifying than the business with the weasels in the corn etc.
The second scariest thing is what the editors let the author get away with in reissuing the book with dates (but not social mores) updated 10 years and a whole pile of extraneous material that turns a battleship of a book into a lumbering oil tanker.
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"Few of the cases appear to have had any contact with live pigs" - from the Guardian.
Which begs the questions as to why the WHO still seem to think it has "limited" human-to-human transmission.
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Hi boss, I think I might be coming down with the flue...
No, that's Santa ...
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Which begs the questions as to why the WHO still seem to think it has "limited" human-to-human transmission.
Yeah that struck me as odd. The fact that some kiwi tourists have picked it up suggests human transmission is pretty good.
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I was intrigued to notice that New Zealand' was a trending topic on Twitter last night.
On closer examination we were being dragged up by #swineflu and 'swine flu' in general.
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The Spanish Flu was spread by returning troops - on ships - these days things (and people) move so much faster
There's some doubt over that -- in part because the strain carried on the troop ship the Niagra was a mild one.
There is speculation that the earlier, mild form may have mutated into the more virulent form that killed so many New Zealanders.
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WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!
CODE BROWN! ALERT! ALERT!
(oh wait, isn't CODE BROWN for an eColi outbreak, something like that..)
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I guess my main point though was that it was spread by ship and took weeks to get to NZ rather than hours
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