Posts by Paul Campbell

  • Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the no…, in reply to Kevin McCready,

    You misunderstand MMP. Winston merely gets media attention and this silly line that he holds “balance of power” because he doesn’t announce intentions until after everyone else. Greens also have “balance of power” if you want to run that line.

    Actually my point was that with the numbers shown above any realistic ruling coalition would still need Winston to form a govt just like they do today (for example I don't consider Nats+Greens as a realistic coalition that would actually happen)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Legal Beagle: Election 2017: the no…,

    And Winston would still hold the balance of power

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    I'm completely convinced that the Nats are totally scared of doing a deal with Winston, and equally scared that he'll make a deal with the red/greens, and that the current overture to the Greens is a cynical ploy to get some leverage over Winston.

    However I do think this is a wonderful chance for the Greens to troll the Nats big time, I think it starts with a quiet note to Winston: "here, hold my beer while I go and mess with their heads" so Winston knows they're not really serious ... the the Greens partake in a public bidding war with the Nats (it's sort of already started), getting them to offer more and more as "reasonable environmental policies" that the Nats think they could agree to .... this could move the center of acceptable environmental policy for the future without the Greens agreeing to anything and leaving Winston free to do his thing

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Speaker: The Government lost the election, in reply to tussock,

    They could have a database entry to not send out the EasyVote card to the returned enrolment checks.

    But leave them enrolled.

    Then do a check after the election, that if those missing people voted anyway (which is checked to defend against people casting multiple votes) they stay enrolled, and if they didn’t they’re purged.

    put a little note by their name on the roll used on the day, when they show up send them over to the specials desk, make them fill out a change of address form before they vote

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    well yeah - what happens when Winnie goes has to part of any negotiation - and that issue needs to be gently negotiated around the elephant-ego in the room

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    I was thinking about what would happen if NZF decided not to join any coalition, I can imagine a National minority govt finding itself being ganged up on by the 3 others to pass the law that they want - they might get more done that way ....

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,

    James Shaw has made this release to members:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKhga5mUIAIiJjX.jpg

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    I lived in the US for 20 years starting in the mid '80s, the 3 year rule made sense then I was very disconnected from NZ and its politics, even though I went back to visit every 3 years or so I didn't feel that being allowed to vote would have made sense (and indeed I had been given the impression that fleeting visits didn't count for residency for voting)

    But the world has changed - it started when I found I could listen to Kim Hill on my computer, when my contact with NZ became daily rather then stumbling on a week old NZH in a newsagent's in another town every 6 months or so - maybe it is time to review that rule

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow,

    I'm trying to be positive ... still hoping for the first real progressive govt in my lifetime (well maybe Norm Kirk's was, I was young)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Where are all the polls at?,

    With those numbers I think the Maori party is the likely 'kingmaker'

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

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