Posts by Rich of Observationz

  • Hard News: Abroad and Home, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    I love how you're attributing such a level of analytical thought to the UK electors, who've mostly been through an education system that equips them to ask and answer deep questions such as "would you like fries with that".

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Abroad and Home, in reply to Rich Lock,

    My belief is that it will be similar (if obviously different in nature) to the 73/74 coal dispute. That ended with a Labour government being elected with a mandate to settle - not because the electorate particularly favoured Labour or the miners cause, but due to a desire to restore normalcy.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Abroad and Home,

    The EU is a huge chunk of the world economy. It's an even bigger chunk of the bit (e.g. not Trump's US) that care about the WTO. If the WTO rules trouble them, then in realpolitik terms, they get to change the rules.

    And the EU has, as a minimum, agreements of some sort on mutual recognition of standards, through shipping of freight and the like with most non-EU states (including all its neighbours). But not the UK.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Abroad and Home,

    The government and a large number of people in the UK are delusional.

    All 27 EU states need to approve any deal, transitional or otherwise. They won't do anything against their real or imagined interests (Irish border, status of Gibraltar, French aircraft manufacturers, German and Czech car manufacturers, etc).

    Britain's interactions with continental Europe depend on a range of agreements dating back to 1945 and before, almost all of which have been subsumed by the EU and require an agreement to reinstate/continue. These range from simple taxes, through importing regulated goods like car and aircraft parts, through simple things like flying or driving to the continent.

    The most likely situation is a cliff edge exit. As of 29 March 2019, all freight leaving the UK will be unpacked and examined. Taxes (maybe 30%, or 60% if the EU decided to recoup the UKs debts through import tariffs) will need to be paid. Anything safety critical or requiring approval (car parts to food) will simply be refused.

    As a result, much of the UK's industry and distribution sector will simply shut down. Unemployment will increase, probably to the point where the government will be no longer able to pay benefits.

    Assuming the UK still gets to vote, then it's likely that a government will be elected with a mandate to fix the problem at any price. I'd see the resulting treaty as being based on re-acceptance of the full EU acquis. Maybe the UK will have a status somewhere between Greece and Bosnia, with European supervision of and veto over their government's actions.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Lorde, the council and the…,

    Ok, so this might be difficult for people with the reasoning power of a powerful AI. I'll try to speak slowly.

    If I want to take heroin, I'm concerned about the effect. I know the actual experience of jabbing the needle in bit is going to be unpleasantly painful.
    I'm only interested in the purity of the drug.

    If I decide I'd like a glass of the Chateau Musar, it's about $200 a 70cl bottle. That works out at about $2380 a litre of alcohol, of which about $29 is tax.
    If I was, as with the smack, purely in there for the buzz, I could drink industrial ethanol at around $30/litre (almost entirely tax - industrial ethanol is about 40c a litre). Obviously there are some very irrational drug users out there.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Lorde, the council and the…, in reply to nzlemming,

    alcohol as a drug

    So, why bother with craft beer and vineyards and maturing single malt whiskies for 20 years? It's just a drug, why don't we just inject pure industrial ethanol into our eyeballs for a quick and cheap hit?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Legal Beagle: Despite Simon Bridges'…,

    It seems to me that it's not so much National doing their job of putting a spoke in the wheels of government as that Labour didn't really bother for much of the last nine years. Did they ever question whether National were entitled to rely on Todd Barclay's vote when he was away on "leave", just as a for instance?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: Out of sight, out of mind:…, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    involuntary manslaughter/criminally negligent homicide

    No such crimes exist in NZ law: http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1961/0043/128.0/DLM329302.html

    [we do not live in the USA, or the movies]

    Also, why is the best way to deal with a tragedy to create others?

    And drug taking is a voluntary act. In many years of hanging out with dodgy people, nobody has ever "pushed" me to buy their drugs (and I think you'll struggle to find a court case where this was proved as an aggravating circumstance against a dealer).

    See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_v_Kennedy

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: And so it begins ...,

    It comes down to a vote, right? 2/3 majority in the Senate, which has never happened, and probably won't, unless a substantial group of Republican senators decide to ditch Trump.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

  • Hard News: What we learned yesterday…, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    US civil service, I thought. They have a set system of pay grades like military ranks.

    (as opposed to agreeing with the SSC that because their department has a similar number of employees to Google, they should be paid accordingly).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5543 posts Report Reply

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