Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The sole party of government

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  • James Green, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    I still think there is something weird going on with people who vote Goff but party vote National. They need to be understood.

    I've been toying with the idea that both electorate and party votes are effectively person votes. You vote for the person you like in your electorate, and for the person you like in a prime minister. This seems like a plausible mechanism for a disconnect between electorate and party vote. (With more than a little debt to Daniel Kahneman's What You See Is All There Is principle)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 703 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    People like Goff, Mallard, King, Dyson, but don’t like the Labour Party. So they’ll vote for those MPs, but not the Party. It’s a big problem for Labour.

    So you can do what DC just did and say we know you like these guys and what they stand for but Labour is now going to be this, ta dah. And the result was ...

    Or you can say OK here's what people actually want from Labour - lets actually give them what they want and maybe they will vote for us.

    I'm not saying which option is right but rather pointing out that the current strategy would seem to indicate the Labour party is headed on a track to become a minor party. If that is true, and it's a valid option if you absolutely are convinced of your ideology, then it seems to me there is room for yet another centre left party. One that believes in the things that those centre left voters actually want to get out of their homes and vote for. Those voters seem to be unrepresented in any way in the current parliament.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    I hate to suggest this, but perhaps there's a significant fraction of National voters who think that Goff, Mallard and King are excellent National party candidates.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    I mean I don't actually have a sophisticated analysis of why that vote split happens. But it does and it's probably pointing towards something interesting and useful to understand.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • JonathanM, in reply to Euan Mason,

    Agreed. Unfortunately, the Nats could keep just saying it over and over again (Kim Dotcom!) and if you repeat it enough, it embeds in folks minds.

    Anecdotally I met a bunch of people who were turned off the left by that. Not that it's an excuse: regardless Labour's result is dismal.

    Since Jul 2012 • 64 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    looking at the results here in Dunedin I can see two things. Firstly almost all of Winston's votes came from Labour. Secondly people vote FPP in electorates and MMP in the local party vote ... those on the left choose the left wing electorate candidate they think can win in an FPP race

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • Amanda Wreckonwith, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    'So you can do what DC just did and say we know you like these guys and what they stand for but Labour is now going to be this, ta dah.'

    But did anyone outside the twitterati actually know what the 'ta dah' Labour Party was?
    I'll be buggered if anyone around me knew. They are still stuck on 'nanny state' and 'Helengrad' thanks to a diet of talk back radio and Jim Mora sponsored, balanced debate.

    Since Sep 2012 • 171 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Amanda Wreckonwith,

    I’ll be buggered if anyone around me knew. They are still stuck on ‘nanny state’ and ‘Helengrad’ thanks to a diet of talk back radio and Jim Mora sponsored, balanced debate.

    And the very last panel show on National radio, where Bryce Edwards pushed the idea that not voting was a really good idea. This is the guy who also said he obtained a PHD for reasons unknown to himself.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    But it does and it’s probably pointing towards something interesting and useful to understand.

    Yeah I agree entirely.

    And I have to emphasise my thoughts are only my guesses and I really have no certainty that I know anything after this election.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • RG,

    On Mt Roskill electorate the concept that it is heartland labour is just wrong. The centre of the electorate, Mt Roskill & Mt Albert are low income areas and are heartland areas. But the fringes, Hillsborough, Mt Eden, Three Kings, Lynfield are all becoming/have become upper middle class as state houses are converted into do-ups.
    At current rates I would expect Month Roskill to be a safe national seat in 20years, with the low decile population moving out West/South in a similar manner to what happened in Ponsonby.

    Since Sep 2014 • 1 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Another possibility that seems unsuggested is that National voters tactically voted to keep the most right wing Labour candidates in, because they know just how divided that it will make Labour. When you're in a safe Labour seat with the guy who destroyed free tertiary education in this country, you might think it's an excellent insurance policy to vote for him.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Amanda Wreckonwith, in reply to steven crawford,

    ...pushed the idea that not voting was a really good idea.

    Surprised that I haven't heard anyone mention the anti-democratic sentiment beamed through channel FOUR over the last few weeks. The constant ridiculing of political participation could have come straight from National Party HQ.

    Since Sep 2012 • 171 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to RG,

    Also the Indian community had an Indian doctor representing National. The billboard of Key and her saying Party Vote National may have helped Goff lose support on the Party vote. If people aren't sure ,familiarity helps.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Greg Dawson, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    People like Goff, Mallard, King, Dyson, but don’t like the Labour Party. So they’ll vote for those MPs, but not the Party.

    Not necessarily true. I held my nose and voted for Mallard in Hutt South, despite being inclined to see the back of him, because there's no way I could vote for Tobacco Weasel.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 294 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Amanda Wreckonwith,

    That shit is why I don't watch TV news. It was quite horrible to have to do it last night.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Amanda Wreckonwith,

    I didn’t help that there was absolutely no advertising free anything anywhere. Even national radio manages to “suggest what cheaply priced wine brands to drink in order to be middle classed” Morons!

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Given the (second) total and devastating rejection of the Labour party as envisioned by the PAS liberal elite, why would anyone even bother reading the prescriptions here? A lot of people still don’t get it. The Labour party created under the iron grip of Helen Clark in the 1990s to paper over the ideological victory of neo-liberalism fell apart when she left and has been rejected, twice. A third time will be fatal. I am sorry, but the PAS view of progressive politics had been tried and found to be an utter catastrophe.

    The time of reckoning for Labour, first for betraying it's voters with the neo-liberal revolution then for selling out and going up the blind alley of identity politics, is now at hand.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2214 posts Report Reply

  • Greg Dawson, in reply to BenWilson,

    It seems to me that the problem this election is just the same as the last one – that basically the youth didn’t vote. I’d love to be corrected, but it looks like that problem only got worse this time.

    But the clear message is that voting is just about how much money you can get for your house, and there is no way in hell anyone under 30 can afford a house.

    It's an old peoples game, innit.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 294 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    Shod, by both sides...
    When you say 'the sole party',
    you don't mean the downtrodden do you...

    ... it's all on the 'uppers' this time!

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7943 posts Report Reply

  • Amanda Wreckonwith, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    surely it has been rejected three times already? like National was after Shipley?

    but hey what would we elitists know…

    Since Sep 2012 • 171 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie, in reply to BenWilson,

    Well yeah, Dyson wins Port Hills by winning the swing National/Labour voters you need to win to win an election. That's not a bad thing. Also Dyson is not on the right of the Party so the suggestion it is National voters voting to keep Labour right is not very powerful I don't think.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    Also Dyson is not on the right of the Party so the suggestion it is National voters voting to keep Labour right is not very powerful I don’t think.

    It's worth considering, before you get all upset about all the Labour support strangely voting National, to look at the possibility that it's actually National support voting Labour, because they realize that electorates don't matter, but keeping Labour old and divided does.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to steven crawford,

    The sky Tower was draped in blue light last night at 6 pm. Nothing to see there but a sea of blue

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    Again, that doesn't explain Port Hills, it assumes voters are co-ordinated strategic geniuses of an absurd level, it's just nonsense.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    The time of reckoning for Labour, first for betraying it’s voters with the neo-liberal revolution then for selling out and going up the blind alley of identity politics, is now at hand

    Sounds all very biblical. What do you actually think they should do, though? I don't really have much interest in advising them, because I don't think they're even amenable to such advice, contrary to what you might think about who runs them. It sure isn't the PAS team, who mostly don't even vote for them. But I'd be keen to hear your ideas, now that we've got the customary slag on the whole community out of the way.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

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