Hard News: That escalated quickly ...
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
some kind of west Auckland ouroboros
Ouroboros also known as the serpent Jörmungandr - is a major player in Ragnarok (the Norse myth rather than Taika's movie - though hopefully Jörmungandr and Thor have their big battle in the film)...
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I do hope that David Parker is given his head in the new paradigm, and a chance to flex his nous and commitment.
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I do hope that David Parker is given his head in the new paradigm, and a chance to flex his nous and commitment.
Agree, reckon his capital gains policy was badly handled/sold by Cunliffe
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I have to say I am warming to Andrew Little. Because he is definitely an adult when the (unfair) accusation is that a Labour-Green government will be run by a bunch of clueless kids/idealists. His union background is a great reassurance.
I really doubt there is any going to be policy shifts, especially this close to the election. Probably just different messaging and no more. I have nothing against Jacinda Ardern. I thought she is a very good speaker. But it is the internal Labour Party politics rearing its ugly head again. This is a great way to project an image that they are not panicking. Right.
A more resilent team would look at the polls and say "Look, this is just temporary set back. We just have to tweak the campaign a bit to get better results. And the polls can't be telling the whole picture, given that the polls were dead wrong with Brexit, Trump, and last the UK election".
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Sacha, in reply to
A hidden site feature for you Doug - if you highlight the text you want to quote before you click Reply, it gets automagically pasted and formatted as a quote. I miss this feature on other sites.
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simon g, in reply to
Lynn, there was no prospect of a leadership change until Andrew Little chose - for whatever reason - to use a TVNZ interview to express his own doubts. If he had responded to a bad poll the way politicians usually do ("Not what I'm finding when I talk to voters out there ... focused on the issues" etc) then he would still be leader.
It wasn't the polls that finished him, or his caucus, it was his own words.
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Geoff Lealand, in reply to
And the polls can’t be telling the whole picture, given that the polls were dead wrong with Brexit, Trump, and last the UK election”.
Yes, whilst pollsters continue to rely on landline responses. This effectively precludes 90% of my students from taking part and an increasing number of older friends.y
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I have just come from a meeting of about 6 people (all of us 50+ years old - well, Me in a month) where the labour leadership stuff came up in discussion beforehand. 3 thought that at the time ( Tuesday) it was a bad move by labour to change leader right now. All three of them now think it was the right thing to do,and said how things have energised as a result. 2 of them were just thrilled immediately that Jacinda was the new leader. One person said they have not voted In the past two elections, that they weren't impressed with "the young one" but thought "that kelvin seems pretty good" and say they are likely to vote this time as a result.
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I see this on Labour's Facebook page
Got something you'd like to ask new Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern?
Well this evening (Aug 3) we're running our first live Facebook Q&A with Jacinda since she became Leader, and we'd love to have your questions! Just leave yours below and tune in at 6.30 pm tonight to hear Jacinda's answers... -
Lynn Yum, in reply to
Well they could have said "no we are 100% behind you Andrew" and refused his resignation. That would have projected unity. Yes it was bizarre that he openly talked about his doubts. One way to see it is to say that Andrew Little is incredibly honest. Another way to see it is to say he lacks confidence, lacks belief in his own campaign. But in the back of his mind I reckon it must have been the image of the caucus sharpening the knives after the bad polling numbers.
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Carol Stewart, in reply to
I have to say I am warming to Andrew Little.
Bit late for that, Lynn! Are you saying that he should have stayed on? I completely disagree. If anyone's panicking it's the National Party. Jacinda as leader is a nightmare for them, which is going to lead to a much more closely contested election.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
I really doubt there is any going to be policy shifts, especially this close to the election. Probably just different messaging and no more.
You're possibly right. But the point was, despite the presence of actual policy somehow Little had failed to communicate that and excite the public about any of those policies in particular.
The contrast with The Greens was particularly stark.
For example both parties have a pro-public transport policy setting. Both have made positive statements about light rail in Auckland, but where Little spoke in general inclusive NZ wide terms The Greens said "we'll build light rail to Auckland airport by 2021".
Yes it's the same message delivered different ways and yes The Greens probably pissed off a few Sth Island farmers by speaking in Auckland centric terms But the effect was The Greens appeared to have a tangible policy and Labour didn't.
The different messaging is all important if people aren't hearing you
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What seems to have been missed from the whole conversation this week is that the right bloc has been steadily declining in polls since the last election and the left bloc rising to above 50% (with Winston included) - regardless of Labour's share of that total. FPP is alive and well in far too many newsrooms and minds.
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Lynn Yum, in reply to
Yes, whilst pollsters continue to rely on landline responses. This effectively precludes 90% of my students from taking part and an increasing number of older friends.y
Yes I just checked the last Colmar Brunton poll methodology. They are still calling land line only (page 2), effectively still using 20th century methodology in 21st century. *facepalm*
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You think you can exclude Winston from the right bloc, Sacha?
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BenWilson, in reply to
You think you can exclude Winston from the right bloc, Sacha?
Well he's not in the right bloc that currently holds power.
I'm not sure where Winston himself sits, but his support is, IMHO, mostly on the Left (if we define position by political opinion and how the population differs on that). It's actually hard to tell it apart from Labour support by professed opinions - the differences are more likely to be demographic.
This probably explains Labour's immigration stance. It's probably a reflection of things their actual supporters have said, when captured anonymously and examined statistically.
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mark taslov, in reply to
I really doubt there is any going to be policy shifts, especially this close to the election. Probably just different messaging and no more.
You’re possibly right. But the point was, despite the presence of actual policy somehow Little had failed to communicate that and excite the public about any of those policies in particular.
I’m not sure if there’s something I’ve been missing as I’ve been looking at both Labour and Green policy over the past couple of weeks and compared to the Greens who very comprehensively have this and this, all I’ve been able to find for Labour is this. Perusing both, it’s quickly revealed how comparatively lackluster Labour’s announced policies folio currently is e.g. their Regional Development policy for New Zealand appears to amount to little more than setting up a Centre of Digital Excellence (CODE) in Dunedin. So I’d assumed there is a lot more to come.
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mark taslov, in reply to
(as is conventional) resigns the next day
In light of what went down very publicly (and here of all places) in 2014, this wins my nomination for euphemism of the year.
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Sacha, in reply to
You think you can exclude Winston from the right bloc, Sacha?
Nope. But neither can I exclude him from a left coalition, and that's enough to win. Labour's chance of picking up enough votes in the next 7 weeks to be able to govern without Winnie seem close to zero to me.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I'm not sure where Winston himself sits, but his support is, IMHO, mostly on the Left (if we define position by political opinion and how the population differs
I'd say we're seeing a realignment globally (certainly US and UK) from left/right to rational/irrational.
You traditionally had poorer people supporting left wing parties and richer people right-wing ones. But now, in the US, the wealthier middle classes are Democrats and Trump draws his support from rust belt blue collar workers. Same in the UK with Brexit (and increasingly party politics - Labour winning Kensington, which is one of the richest constituencies in the country).
On this scale, the Greens and TOP are the rational end, Peters is the shit-thick end and Labour and National are in the middle.
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
Further to my comment a couple of days ago about the enthusiasm by Jacinda and Grant for investment in the arts and the role of the arts generally, following in the footsteps of Peter Fraser and Helen Clark. In the minor reshuffle Jacinda keeps Arts, Heritage and Culture and makes Grant Associate. Good news for the future.
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Sacha, in reply to
Trump draws his support from rust belt blue collar workers
That has been debunked here many times over. Culturally-insecure white midlle class voters backed him, and a broken electoral system did the rest.
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Sacha, in reply to
The arts are handy when a city's climate is so bad you have to spend most of the year indoors :)
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Lynn Yum, in reply to
I know I’m late to the Andrew Little party! It began last year:
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