Hard News: Prospects
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Sir Douglass in the Herald this week. "If I get elected, I'll do heaps of stuff."
He's probably discovered P.
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I'm listening to a hilarious bit on nat radio about Rodney's jacket - they were saying he really needs loud checked trousers and large white shoes.
I think they missed out on headware - probably he needs a too-small shiny bowler hat
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Great post Russell, appreciate the nod to those of us who've been doing the rather thankless tasks involved in political party activism. Would appreciate putting a hold on the obituaries until Sunday, I've still got to get motivated enough to do scrutineering and phoning etc tomorrow.
Agree entirely about the comments around the worrying authoritarian trends evident in National's intended breakdown of separation of powers in Super fund and Pharmac policies. Also, having the family business involved in the construction industry, we need further insistence on self-regulation on health and safety issues like a hole in the head! Try competing with the cowboys out there if you have any ethical standards like preferring not to kill or maim your workers or customers!
As for the national party education policy, being a primary school teacher, I find it difficult to see the value in yet more assessment! We already know our kids who aren't meeting the literacy and numeracy benchmarks. It's harder and very expensive to find good diagnostic information from the data, and then find ways to close those gaps. That's where the money needs to go, not on developing yet more testing. Not to mention the leaching of yet more funding from the state system into the private one. One thing I'm really proud of and that we shouldn't take for granted is how good it is to be able to send your kids to the local state school and not to have to go privately as the default setting because the state system has been allowed to become a sink one.
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just saw heather roy and a flotilla of them on cuba st.
my first thought was "everyone last one of them beaten up at school"
Act certainly does seem to have a vastly disproportionate number of ghastly little snots in its fold. Their behaviour at the Epsom debate, towards the Labour candidate Kate Sutton, was reportedly vile.
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Re the progressives. I'm currently very pissed off that I can't find my Sainte-Lague spreadsheet, although I'd assume they're not near a second seat. That, and it seems that my Macronator is making it hard to wikilink.
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We already know our kids who aren't meeting the literacy and numeracy benchmarks. It's harder and very expensive to find good diagnostic information from the data, and then find ways to close those gaps. That's where the money needs to go, not on developing yet more testing.
That sounds like something bureaucrats would do ...
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but I comfort myself with the (potentially naive) thought that whomever wins, they will do what they genuinely believe is best for New Zealand.
David, I take no comfort whatever at the prospect of Rodney Hide doing what he genuinely believes best for NZ.
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I did find a bunch of other fascinating spreadsheets along the way...
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Loved the EMPU clashing with National in the square yestie.
Really? Watching the coverage, there was one woman who really needs to lay off caffeinated beverages. Maximising your face time is one thing, shoving people out of your camera line like a crack-head at the opening of the Harrods' Sale is quite another.
- The Lady in Red, is really quite nice, if rather enthusiastic.
One of the Nat supporters who like many was rather bemused is a really gentle & nice neigbour.- As I'm voting for neither I found it funny & equally happy I wasn't there.
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I'm almost convinced they have almost no basis in reality
Last time round I was working for TNS who did the 3 News poll, and still do.
Ours was the only individual poll to predict the Labour-led gummint, and anyone who remembers how extraordinarily close that election was will know what a tight call that was.
However, the rolling poll of polls Molesworth and Featherston (where are you guys?) improved on ours with regard the exact number of Maori overhang seats, and a couple of other details.
One thing the polls are really not dealing with is predicting the number of Labour supporters who like having Greens in gummint, but who won't vote for them out of the misguided fear that it will deprive Labour of something.
Historically, Greens poll worse in elections than in the media. I believe people see the Greens polling well, and feel let off the hook of voting for them themselves.
Imagine how well they'd do if the people who actually agree with them on the importance of sustainability, transparency and fairness actually voted for them!
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Imagine how well they'd do if the people who actually agree with them on the importance of sustainability, transparency and fairness actually voted for them!
It would be nice if you could actually assign %'s to your party vote instead of having a single tick.
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I have read this blog for a long time and never posted however I take a major issue with the fact that anyone seriously believes our GDP growth has much to do with Helen Clark or John Key. It has a lot more to do with global dairy, meat, forestry prices in NZD terms. Any accurate economic analysis of the past 9 years will see the growth as the result of a weak NZD (in Labour's first term) and very high commodity prices.
I mean what did Bill Clinton do to really maximise the tech boom? More the case of right place right time for him (and in this case Helen Clark).
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Thanks to Ian for this a few pages back
"Who is John Key? He has been asked and at his age he at least should know. I don't think he has a deeply held philosophy which means his answers seem to be based on differing needs for different audiences. I think Helen has a long held philosophy which allows her to be clear on answers to most questions as she lines it up with her philosophy."
I think the uber pragmatism is entirely true. Perhaps the best thing we can hope for is that Key will reveal himself a bit more after the election.
He did offer hints that some of the deadwood might not be so lucky and it may be that National Party find him diffilcut to read as well.
@Duncan
You are right to the extent that 'success has many fathers / mothers' and politicians will always claim more than they should but Cullen and Labour have done better than average in my opinion.
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Oh, and 'Kat' over at Colin Espiner's is gett bringing the funny-peculiar:
I’ve always suspected the people in this country are pretty stupid and tomorrow is going to prove me right, alas. While the rest of the world makes a turn to the left, we go right and blindly vote for a smug be-suited money man who is lying through his teeth to get you all to vote for him. You are all idiots with a persecution complex.
Labour have done nothing particularly wrong over the last 9 years. Its not their fricking fault the world economy has gone down the toilet and you greedy twonks borrowed too much money in the good times and are now suffering. See how happy you are after 3-6 years of Mr ‘every man for himself’ Investment Wanker and his chums mwahahahahah. The 90’s were fun weren’t they?
The country gets the government it deserves.
With friends like this...
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It's remarkable that the nobody in the NZ media wants to mention the dreaded fact that NZ is one of the most indebted nations in the developed world (based on debt per capita to GDP). Whether you like it or not, this has exploded under Labor and is a far better reflection of NZ's economic performance than public accounts.
Anyone taking notice would have realized that the NZ's largest challenge is to live within its means. Whether or not the Labour government can be faulted for not addressing this situation is arguable, but they've been happy to bask in the glow of the economic "boom" (as fake as it was).
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Act certainly does seem to have a vastly disproportionate number of ghastly little snots in its fold
actually... that's exactly what they were.
looked like the well-heeled types who can't figure out why daddy hasn't given them a quarry of minions yet.
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You know, this is the first election where I've actually met one of the candidates standing for my electorate. I met Grant Robertson (Wellington Central's Labour canddiate) a couple of months ago at a meetup for Wellington-based Twitter users. He was really friendly and engaging and recognised my name from here!
I've seen Stephen Franks, the National candidate out and about, but I haven't spoken to him yet. He always seems too busy talking to, uh, other white males his age to talk to me!
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Anyone taking notice would have realized that the NZ's largest challenge is to live within its means. Whether or not the Labour government can be faulted for not addressing this situation is arguable, but they've been happy to bask in the glow of the economic "boom" (as fake as it was).
I think they did do something about it. They greatly improved the public accounts and they did a good deal to address our national savings problem. Cullen took a great deal of flak in the process.
NBR's front-page editorial today declared Labour should go because it "condoned" the housing bubble, which is the greatest factor in our very high levels of household debt. What not condoning it might have involved isn't apparent.
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wankers
Quite. Who are these people?
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While understanding where the mass anti-ACT vitriol in coming from…
I’ve had a little bit to do with Heather Roy through kids’ school, and have found her to not be like that at all.
And competent; she runs a good school gala.
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not so much dull as quaint... it's been a bit like watching the local borough council strut their stuff.
Nailed it again, Che. :)
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Russell, improving public accounts is irrelevant when you have private debt is as bad as NZ's. Take a look at Japan. The public debt is 150% of GDP--an appalling state for a country in its stage of development. On the flip side, Japan remains a net creditor to the rest of the world? Why? Quite simply, households and the private sector live and operate within their means.
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Heather Roy seemed really good at the only select committee hearing I've been to - but then she was standing in for Judith Collins, so my gratitude may have overwhelmed my sense of perspective.
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wankers
Quite. Who are these people?
They're people who get their ideas from the shite reporting of public affairs in this country in the newspapers and on the TV.
Frankly, it's time to acknowledge the fact that if New Zealanders want a higher quality of media coverage of public policy issues, then many of the journalists and editors in this country should go back to 'school' and be taught the basics of policy and law making and economics. It might seem controversial to some to suggest this, but I don't think it's that unreasonable to suggest that those in a position of significant influence on the country have some bloody clue what they're talking about, and are able to adequately interrogate politicians from all parties about the impact of the policies they're proposing.
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