Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Prospects

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  • Sacha,

    Quite simply, households and the private sector live and operate within their means.

    So Jim, what could a government do to change a culture of not living within our means in the private sector? I've heard suggestion of upping capital adequacy ratios on mortgages, but genuinely interested to hear other solutions.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Mark Harris,

    Couldn't quite bring myself to run over Peter Dunne this morning as he ran across the road at a Ngaio roundabout - probably would have still got in posthumously anyway I guess.

    So happy I moved up the coast and no longer have to acknowledge Dunne as my MP.

    Waikanae • Since Jul 2008 • 1343 posts Report Reply

  • Bevan Shortridge,

    I thought the National election tactic in Auckland Central yesterday was interesting - send a car (no signage on it) down Alfred Street at the University of Auckland with a passenger with loud hailer saying "Remember to vote National on Saturday!"

    Given that Alfred Street is designated Pedestrian except for buses and official vehicles (couriers delivering stuff, Uni vehicles), and given it was a done a half-hour after afternoon exams had started(!) I thought this was an odd thing to do to get support. I vaguely wondered if it was someone else masquerading as National and annoying people to put them off that party (thinking no-one would be stupid enough to use a loud hailer while people were sitting exams).

    The Greens were at Alfred Street during morning exams today with a street performance of people in Sumo suits wearing red and blue belts and wrestling (or falling over). They were quieter at least.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 122 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Oh bollocks. Labour's strategy was to argue that Key was slippery to the point of being fundamentally untrustworthy. And given his willingness to promise (almost) anything he thinks the audience wants to hear, they're right.

    That might be right, but that doesn't make it a smart campaign. Smart campaigns turn people off your opposition and onto you. That hasn't happened. The Labour campaign has been average to say the least.

    These anti-Key rallies that are going on are a perfect example. Who the hell authorised that? This is an election, we're not off to some crappy war or anything. It's supposed to be getting people to vote for you, not getting into a yelling match with the other side.

    Robyn, Grant Robertson is smart, and will make things happen in parliament. You can attribute a lot of Labour advances on students (interest free loans, universal allowances) directly to him. He'll be good for bureaucrat Wgtn Central and its demographic.

    Also, he's not a complete git, which puts him one over Franks.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Re: a quick decision (Glenn Pearce et al):

    That effectively means that a large minority of the votes are ignored. We won't know the real result until all the specials are counted - and those votes are as valid as anybody's. In recent elections, specials have changed the result (e.g. 2005, National lost a seat, and in 1999 it was crucial for the Greens, for NZ First and the whole make-up of Parliament).

    There are two delays: the wait for negotiations and the wait for the vote count. The two happen simultaneously, and people get impatient, blaming MMP for "not knowing yet".

    Of course, there may be a very clear indication on election night: a projected result that special votes will almost certainly not change. But if it is close, well, we'll just have to wait and see what the rest of us have voted for. Which is NOT the same as waiting for a series of hui - something the media might like to point out (but mostly won't).

    It's very sad if the needs of the ADD media (and public?) are deemed more important than the pretty basic principle of democracy - finding out first what the people said.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    wankers

    Che, an occasion where I couldn't decide which side I wanted to kick hardest. While I find Wayne Ruscoe trying to paint himself as a free speech martyr laughable, why did anyone bother to engage with him?

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Christopher Dempsey,

    It's not too late to hobble the Nats through strategic voting in Epsom. Could someone from there confirm that such a scenario might uphold? It would certainly hobble the Nats if they did...

    I live in Epsom and the scenario certainly holds.

    If I want a National Govt but no Act party I vote for Kate Sutton.

    If I want a National Govt with Act I vote for the guy in the canary yellow jacket.

    If I want a Labour Govt I vote for Richard Worth.

    Easy peasy. And not so hard to get one's head around. Voting for Kate Sutton means that the right vote goes to Richard and Rodney, and they can battle it out. Voting for Richard as electorate MP splits the 'right' vote and Kate comes up the middle.

    So strategically, for Labour voters in Epsom, you vote for Richard Worth if you want a Labour Govt.

    That's my take on it and I could be wrong, but I suspect I'm not too far off the mark.

    Parnell / Tamaki-Auckland… • Since Sep 2008 • 659 posts Report Reply

  • James Green,

    Oh yeah. So I found my Sainte-Lague calculator.
    There is also one set up here http://www.elections.org.nz/calculator/. It's quite good because it works out the quotient automagically.

    Mine on the other hand means you have to work out the quotient yourself (just add or subtract 100 until you get 120 seats), but it's also sort of set-up for special votes. And you can watch how the formula works (ie, who is next most likely to get a seat).
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pIaveWl4HIvZ6X-44g67KIA
    It might be that everyone who plays with it will change, but I guess if you save it as your own, or don't save it, then it might be OK.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 703 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    Talking about spreadsheets and things…

    I recall that before the last election there was a print-out drinking game doing the e-mail rounds. You know the sort; every time Brash mentioned his Asian wife you got to drink, Peter Dunne says “common sense” you get to do it twice etc…

    Is there one going around this time?

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    I have only one thing to say. If you don't vote Labour, you're stupid, if you vote National, you're stupider and if you vote ACT then you're stupiderer. init?

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Epsom is a story for our times.

    John Key lives in the electorate. The "next Prime Minister" says he will vote for his party's candidate. But he isn't urging others to do so. And obviously he wants Hide to win (but won't vote for that to happen).

    I think this many be unique in the history of Western democracy: leader votes one way and fervently hopes his supporters don't follow him.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Pick time:

    A National-Act coalition terrifies me. Even if it's 2 or 3 seats, I worry what sector is going to get shat on by being Acts 'win' in a coalition agreement or ministerial warrant. I think I'd prefer a landslide and National to make a clean sweep and form a government without a coalition.

    I think the polls that came out today are going to be wrong, Labour will be three points higher, national a couple less. I think the green vote is going to hold, which is going to make them significant.

    National (56)-Act (3)-Dunne (1) to fall three seats short of being able to form a government. Maori Party to agree to abstain for basically keeping themselves alive (Maori seats to remain the same) and to pay for it come next election when Labour takes back a couple of seats. Helen Clark to stand down after a year or so and then give her valedictory speech as a backbencher in 2011.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Jim Cathcart,

    "So Jim, what could a government do to change a culture of not living within our means in the private sector? I've heard suggestion of upping capital adequacy ratios on mortgages, but genuinely interested to hear other solutions."

    It's a good question. Financial education in schools might be a start though. My major gripe is that the incumbent government has done nothing to warn people that their borrowings are funded offshore and the implications of that when it all turns to custard (as we're seeing now).

    Since Nov 2006 • 228 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Beard,

    Interesting that today's DomPost, in summarising various possible outcomes, felt fit to mention that a Labour-Green coalition would be "the most left wing government since 1999, and possibly since 1972". It didn't occur to them to point out that a National-Act coalition might be the most right-wing government for a long time. But anything you can do to scare the punters, right?

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1040 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    It's time to kick the money lenders out of the temple, not vote for them.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Leopold,

    Oh well, a loss means that at least Mike Williams gets the boot (tho' I wouldn't put it past Labour to screw that one up...)

    Since Jan 2007 • 153 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    Thanks Steve,

    Looks like I’m not making it past 9 o’clock then.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Also, he's not a complete git, which puts him one over Franks.

    Great campaign slogan: "Grant Robertson: Not a complete git"

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    My major gripe is that the incumbent government has done nothing to warn people that their borrowings are funded offshore and the implications of that when it all turns to custard (as we're seeing now).

    Really? I think Cullen has kvetched about that quite a bit. And, more to the point, done something about it via KiwiSaver and (insofar as it impacts the overall national saving rate) the Super Fund -- both of which were opposed by other parties.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole,

    My major gripe is that the incumbent government has done nothing to warn people that their borrowings are funded offshore and the implications of that when it all turns to custard

    What makes you think that would've made the slightest bit of difference? Bollard sounded alarm bells for a long time before it all went to shit, and nothing changed. The collapse of the housing bubble was thoroughly forecast, but people still acted like it was the unforeseen demise of some kind of natural right to ever-rising house prices when it actually occurred.

    The Government should stay the fuck out of how people spend their money. Directing private-sector spending is otherwise known as communism, and as much as that charge is levelled at Labour they are very definitely not communists.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen,

    Thanks Steve - solid gold.

    Auckland • Since Apr 2008 • 47 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes,

    Great campaign slogan: "Grant Robertson: Not a complete git"

    Hmmm. less than a day to go and noew we start making up campaign slogans.
    One last chance guys. Let's get the viral word of mouth earworm thing happening. Give us your sloganz, short and pithy.
    here's my first.
    John Key? Not for me!

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    I'm having a down day ....

    It's snowing outside, for the third time today, and the third day in a row, in November - I predict 3 years of winter ...

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace,

    Thanks for your mention of the Labour candidate in Wellington Central, Grant Robertson. He would be a great MP - good values and intellect for parliament, and would also be a great electorate MP and fighter for people. Much of the work of being an MP is working for people and supporting them in their battles with the system. It doesn't make the media but does make a difference for real people and their lives. Retiring MP Marian Hobbs was particularly good at this and Grant is the same.I know, as he has already helped me with some issues around disability and autism.

    But this is a wealthy electorate which has been held by Labour, National and even Act in the last couple of decades so Grant needs every vote possible to win it. So, if you are in Wellington Central, please do.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3218 posts Report Reply

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