Hard News: Prospects
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i'm calling nats screwing ACT down to confidence and supply only. minimal/no cabinet posts. they've got numbers at the minute
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TV3 commentators talking about a coalition with the Maori Party are in bleeding-heart liberal fantasy-land. Act have nowhere to go, Dunne is also a remora, and the Maori Party will want big concessions.
Not that I'm capable of being overly analytical (hic) but I prefer to read from those two statements that a canny Key will play Act off against te Maori to reduce the short-term position of either (so Douglas can wave goodbye to a cabinet post, thank christ) - and shore up broader support for the next election.
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Sorry - that was a very cryptic comment from me. It was a response to the idea that Labour voters gave a tactical vote to Winston Peters. I really, really doubt that, at all. I think many Labour voters, including me, found Labour's adherence to Peters just too much to stomach. It's why I ended up voting Maori.
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I heard them on C4 saying they get their deposit back over 0.5 and a throwaway offer to lay the 500 on a bar shout..
That's what it was. Damn, I wanted to see 10K pints lined up ready for them to drink...
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My six-year-old joined me on the stroll down to the polling booth at his school - gorgeous day too, after three days of snow and hail. On the way we discussed the terrible abuses of the democratic process that can occur in certain countries.
Then we stood side-by-side in the booth, and under his intimidating gaze I ticked the Greens box as instructed and was therefore allowed to return home with all my limbs intact.Later, with two percent of the vote counted, he was absolutely devastated. I pointed out that life under National might not be so bad, because while he may be poor and brown, I am rich and white so National will look after me. And I will look after him, and he can carry on looking after the environment. He calmed down a bit. But I hope he doesn't find out that people actually voted for ACT until he's about nine.
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I watched Roger Douglas before, fuck I had forgotten just what a nasty piece of work he is. If Key is a centrist, I give it six months before ACT implodes between Rodney's baubles and Douglas's doctrinaire fantasies.
If John turns out to be in bed with the right of his party and tries to let Rogernomes loose on the manufactured crisis pretext, National will govern for three years out of the next 15.
It is only a 5% swing to the Nats, and after nine fantastic years it is time to sit back and enjoy watching the RWNJ's turn on Key and co.
With the world the world is going economically, 5% seems very doable for the left in 2011.
Oh and looking at the Auckland results, the Herald effect is pretty clear. They may have got the result they wanted, but I hope Tim Murphy thinks about the cost to his papers credibility. With any luck APN will close it down to save money and leave Auckland with the freebies who at least don't pretend to be what they are not.
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Beautiful, Stephen. :)
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And Mark, was it you that just bought a certain record store? In which case I imagine the prospect of a 10k shout might appeal..
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But I hope he doesn't find out that people actually voted for ACT until he's about nine.
The average emotional age of their voters, surely. :)
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No, no, that was Mark Thomas, wasn't it?
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a canny Key will play Act off against te Maori to reduce the short-term position of either (so Douglas can wave goodbye to a cabinet post, thank christ) - and shore up broader support for the next election.
that's my guess. they have many many mps, and don't *need* act so much as want them. act will be treated the way the greens/progressives have been treated by labour. guaranteed allies who can be sometimes ignored.
again, this is guesswork
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Mind you, if I had, I'd put Colin Morris in to run it in a flash
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I think I'd prefer Nat to be able to go it alone, than have to be in bed with ACT
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<quote>If John turns out to be in bed with the right of his party and tries to let Rogernomes loose on the manufactured crisis pretext, National will govern for three years out of the next 15.</i>
Tell you what, it's going to be fun to watch!
Key has pledged to govern as a centrist, broadly following the culture of government established over a decade by Clark.
If he's ransomed by the ACT madmen, he'll be between a rock and a hard place. If he governs as a centrist, he'll probably only last three years anyway.
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Just adding up the popular vote numbers... Nat/Act/Dunne = 49.something% ...
Is this the first minority government under MMP?
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Sorry, Mark. Buy you a drink next time I'm in Waikanae. My bro used to be in your soccer club and fire brigade.
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OK what about Helen's legacy?
In classical NZ socio-economic terms, she's got to be the best since the original 30s Labour government.
On the other hand, in 21st century terms, she's done a pretty poor job of preparing NZ for the poo it's in now. This isn't a short-term financial crisis, it's economic chickens coming home to roost. It's quite ironic that the Nats end up holding the baby.
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Thank you Helen for all you have done for us.
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I could see Labour calling for a recount or two. Young's got New Plymouth by only 314 from Duynhoven. They''ll wish Pillay as a little closer to Bennet in Waitakere but 901 might be worth a look. And Okeroa is only 684 behind Katene in Te Tai Tonga.
I think Grant Robertson is safe with 1500 (suck on that, Franks) but Cosgrove might be looking nervously at his 518 margin - I'd expect the Nats to have a go at that one, and also Rimutaka where Whiteside trails Hipkins by 625.
But I want to know what Williamson is slipping into the Pakuranga water - a majority of 12, 759 speaks of dirty doings at the crossroads. Hell, he's got a 7K majority over all other candidates combined.
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It's quite ironic that the Nats end up holding the baby.
And more to the point, a money dealer.
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But I want to know what Williamson is slipping into the Pakuranga water
He's been promisin them that fast broadband again. Just like last time he was in charge..
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Helen has stood down as leader of the Labour Party.
For a now at least the vindictive and boorish in our natures is in ascendant, and they've got their tall poppy scalp. Helen Clark has been a PM of the ages, probably the best since Frazer, and she will be long remembered.I count myself lucky to have spent nine years with her as our prime minister.
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Oh, huzzah.
Shipley's caucus is back in power, and this time they can blame it all on Act. Not to worry fellow poor folk, we can always eat what trickles down from the rich, and it's even legal now.
Key a moderate? Fuck, but people are dumb. Honestly. He'll be gone by lunchtime if he tries to stop the looting, not that he will. He's a full on hollow man and will smile at the 10% unemployed they so sought last time and blame the smear campaign again.
Anyone remember Bush coming into office? A "uniter", tax cuts, less regulation, just a good old boy, cut funding to schools (I mean, leave no child behind), more funding for private insurance and health, going it alone, ignoring facts that disagree with dogma. How'd that work out again?
Oh well. You takes the good with the bad. And that speech by Clark? AWESOME. Obama and McCain got nothin' on that strait talk. Thanks Auntie H, endless foot dragger of a government you ran, you were a great PM, and a top person (when not in a petty huff).
I think I'll go to bed. Call me in three years.
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Helen Clark has been a PM of the ages, probably the best since Frazer, and she will be long remembered.
I count myself lucky to have spent nine years with her as our prime minister.Agreed. Only wish, though, that she'd acted a little more precipitately with the abominable Philip Field, and been a little more courageous in promoting talent over time-serving drones. Hindsight shows that she could have afforded to.
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God, Sean Plunket sounds thrilled. I wonder where he'll be working in a few weeks' time?
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I am so regretful that my fellow NZers - of all ages and states - havent actually looked at the people now going to be in government, and their previous records.
ACT? O shit. Dunne? Phuque o dear. The Nat rump -well, my frellow citizens, who voted, one or the other, for that crew - I despise you.Islander, burying itself out of any involvment with this pustular moronic lot, for the next 3 years-
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