If Eagle runs against Corbyn, I think she'll struggle to win the 40,000+ votes she needs, against a background of the Chilcot enquiry reminding the electorate (which hasn't changed since last year) of the war.
If Corbyn gets banned from standing (which would probably involve a court challenge) then basically the PLP are end-running the ability of the members to choose the leader - they're pretty much trying to sack the membership.
In that case, we might see a rule change attempt put before conference: firstly to give an incumbent leader the right to contest an election (or possibly removing the PLP from the nomination process altogether) and secondly introducing primaries for sitting MPs.
It's rather reminiscent of the situation in 1980/81 when the founders of the SDP decided early on they were leaving and were waiting for an appropriate trigger. (Ironically, this was the radical decision of the party conference to remove the exclusive power of the PLP to elect the leader).
Cor, Gary Younge is on form: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/brexit-disaster-decades-in-the-making
Labour (here and there) needs to give the voters something to vote for rather than count on us voting against the government, and it needs to be something other than “more of the same, with different coloured ties on”.
For me, they already have, and it's closely related to the Future of Work thing.
Regarding the Blairite ructions in UK Labour, I'm coming to the realisation that it may not be so much a rebellion as it is a last stand. And it seems Brexit has made Blairism even more of a product of the decade that gave us Britpop.
Things are getting even odder. Boris will not now stand as Tory leader.
Things are getting even odder. Boris will not now stand as Tory leader
Ahahahahahahahahaha! That is so Boris. Complete twatcock.
Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said: "Boris follows the Bullingdon playbook: you break it and someone else has to fix it."
the faraway Farage farrago...
the Bullingdon playbook: you break it and someone else has to fix it.
...and Johnson does look like someone who "has never had a 'real job' in his life"
- Who's laughing now?
I note that the National Party Drama Society are rehearsing their play ‘The Masque of the Red Death’ at the Chateau on the Park in Chchch at dusk this evening (July 1st)
The story takes place at the castellated abbey of the “happy and dauntless and sagacious” Prince Prospero. Prospero and 1,000 other nobles have taken refuge in this walled abbey to escape the Red Death, a terrible plague with gruesome symptoms that has swept over the land. Victims are overcome by “sharp pains”, “sudden dizziness”, and hematidrosis, and die within half an hour. Prospero and his court are indifferent to the sufferings of the population at large; they intend to await the end of the plague in luxury and safety behind the walls of their secure refuge, having welded the doors shut.
Interesting to note this is only National’s 80th annual conference, while this is The Labour Party’s Centenary Year – a light they seem hellbent on hiding under a bushel – all we have to show for it is this very relevant tea towel – they are gonna need more than this to clean up at the next election!!
<oops wrong thread – shoulda been over on the ’Government you deserve’ thread>
Great gimbling Slytherin toves!
Or is it just that the UK is going through a 'bad spell'?
I can detect strong whiffs of 'Confundus', 'Flipendo', 'Expulso ', 'Stupefy ' and 'Obliviate'!
They desperately need a 'Reparo' and 'Ennervate ' cast soon!
Realistically it's between Michael Gove and Theresa May then. Both of them will be invoking Article 50, given their statements.
Gove is a pure idealogue on this sort of thing, I have experience running up against him during his tenure as Education Secretary.
May is the arch-pragmatist. She's posed as the less extreme candidate, but she's pretty bloody awful all by herself.
Any hope that another candidate like Boris could evade the Brexit button being pushed, is gone.
This has to be the most remarkable period of internel British politics since the coalition negotiations of 2010, perhaps the most important crisis moment since Suez.
Epitaph for Boris Johnson, as seen on Twitter:
"What a catalyst you turned out to be. Loaded the guns, then you run off home for your tea."
(Eton Rifles, of course ... )
“What a catalyst you turned out to be. ...”
What ho? What if?
Hello-Hurray - it's the price to pay to the Eton Rifles, Eton Rifles
Hello-Hurray - I'd prefer the plague to the Eton Rifles, Eton Rifles
Interesting to see that Stephen Frears and Michael Seresin both worked on If
(Spoiler - the guns start at 1:38:00)
From the Guardian: " Johnson once said that there was more chance of him being reincarnated as an olive or finding Elvis on Mars than becoming prime minister. And thanks to the moves of his erstwhile friend, that appears to be a more accurate prediction than he could have imagined."
There was a political reporter on the BBC last night who seemed to be well informed. According to him, Gove called MPs into his office Thursday morning and said, "I don't think Boris is up to it. So I'm standing instead."
He gave the impression that Boris was the last to find out about the coup, quickly changed his speech, put on his clown suit and departed the scene. It looks like Boris was played like a patsy.
And the Tory party does not play nicely with others.
The UK conservatives have almost never elected the frontrunner as leader (since they acquired a formal method, pre-1964 the leader just emerged).
Usually, any politician who has been in cabinet a while and is seen as a front runner has sufficient enemies that they can't win. Heath, Thatcher and Major were all fairly minor figures who'd recently reached shadow cabinet office. (and then there was the period, post Major when they elected a succession of freaks and wierdos like Hague and Dunkin Donut. Not sure that's over).
Tory reckons here - https://shinbonestar.org/2016/07/01/subtle-vicious/
The Tories haven't had a eurosceptic PM, but it's likely they will now. Hague, IDS and Howard were - but they were also failures.
Boris? Well, a decade of edging towards the job he wanted and he gets ankle tapped by Michael Fucking Gove in the last few hours. Hahahha.
If they weren't so busy shooting each other it would be a plum for Labour. Gove is an unlikeable ideologue. May looks more electable, on the surface. But as a 'remain' advocate, she'd face a fair bit of internal turmoil - and Tory voters might not warm to her. Corbyn looks better by the minute - especially if Labour could cosy up to the Lib Dems (who could plausibly expect a few Tory 'Remain' voters to come their way.) It's a mess, but it also looks like a country ripe for new - or any - leadership!
May benefits from Labour's turmoil as well. She's already working the line that her lack of visibility in the Referendum was because she was Getting Shit Done as Home Secretary - really going for the 'The boys have had their fun, let's get on with it' persona.
The Tory voters will warm up to anyone who is electable, particularly if Labour's problems continue. A snap election and an even bigger majority for the Tories? Labour busted down as UKIP surge ? There's opportunity here for a May led Tory party.
Boris Johnson's HQ as the EU referendum result comes in.
Via The Standard
So often we read history books and wonder how a particular cluster***k happened. In Britain now they're living through the perfect example of why and how it does.
A history classroom, decades hence:
"So that's how the UK ceased to exist. Scotland left the union after the UK left the EU. It's often argued that Prime Minister [name] could have stopped this happening. After all, s/he was elected to the Tory leadership, and was running the country, with a Parliamentary majority. In retrospect, that seems obvious. But at the time ... "
"But Professor, wasn't there a candidate who wanted to keep the country united?"
'Well, all of them did. But not as much as they wanted to be Prime Minister. The future could take care of itself, they thought. Ambition beats vision, you see."
What a tragedy, what a farce.
Labour busted down as UKIP surge ?
I don't quite understand how UKIP have a future. Given they are more-or-less a one-policy party, and that policy is about to happen - do they have anywhere to grow? Or will they disappear as irrelevant?
Given they are more-or-less a one-policy party, and that policy is about to happen – do they have anywhere to grow? Or will they disappear as irrelevant?
Shit like that don't stop.
I don't see the U.K. as being in the same mould as '30s Germany but do you think that Farage is the sort to quietly slide off into the background?
do you think that Farage is the sort to quietly slide off into the background?
No. But he wouldn’t be the only politician in this imbroglio to have painted himself into a corner without any plan for what comes next.