Speaker by Various Artists

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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit

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  • Rich of Observationz,

    On the main topic:
    Geoffrey Robertson (QC, incidentally) sez what I was thinking

    The UK government can't trigger Article 50 without first getting legislation to repeal the European Communities Act through Commons and Lords.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    The Tories have just presided over the greatest disaster in the country's history since WWII and we're talking about Corbyn?

    Yeah, well, I'll repeat what I said upthread:

    So the Labour opposition have somehow contrived to achieve the in-the-circumstances almost impossible feat of wrestling the spotlight off the government of the day (the ones who actually completely stuffed the country, and painfully obviously have no plan for unstuffing it), and onto themselves instead.

    It's a bit like watching an old-timey music hall act, where the comedian spends half-an-hour exerting more and more effort, getting more and more contorted, but somehow by the end he has still failed to put on his hat, and now his trousers have ended up around his ankles as well.

    "Some electorates do 'ave 'em", perhaps? "Ooooooo, Jeremy! Ooooooo, Jeremy!"

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    The Tories have just presided over the greatest disaster in the country's history since WWII and we're talking about Corbyn?

    I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
    #deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybook

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    London had a mean Remain vote of 60.9% and a median 61.6%, Islington (i.e. Corbyn area) was 75.22% Remain. about 15% above the region

    Yorkshire and The Humber had a mean Remain vote of 41.35% and a median 43.22%, Leeds (i.e. Hilary Benn area) was 50.31% Remain. about 9% above the region

    Wales had a mean Remain vote of 46.65% and a median 46.01%, Rhonda (i.e. Chris Bryant area) was 46.30% Remain. a vote typical of the region.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to nzlemming,

    +1.

    The Blairite conspiracists, meanwhile, remind me of nothing so much as United Future. A bunch of clueless non-entities representing a mythical “centrist” electorate that doesn’t actually exist.

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin, in reply to Tamsin6,

    Agreed, although I'm also equally interested in what to do _next_ as well.

    First thing seems easy enough, support the Mayor in his attempts to gain more autonomy for London, both permanently and in short term to be part of negotiations for Brexit.

    Second is harder, I'll probably have to hold my nose and join a party.

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1022 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    Well I can confirm this, almost all of my centrist/left NZ friends who've now lived in London for a few years cannot bring themselves to support Labour at present. These are people I know who've voted Labour and Greens in NZ (so far as anyone can know who someone else votes for).

    We are pretty niche sure, but similar things are true for my local friendship/work circle.

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1022 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to nzlemming,

    I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
    #deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybook

    Ok, so, if this is a dead cat play, where's the corpse? And who threw it?

    The thing about the dead cat, is because it's dead and incapable of moving by itself, someone needs to have thrown it onto the table so we can all point and stare and talk about nothing else. And the bloke who threw it should be bleeding obvious, even if they aren't standing there going 'Look! Look at the cat!'.

    So point me out a headline, an announcement by the tories, or similar, that could be feasible. The telegraph headline upthread would barely qualify as a sideshow at the moment.

    The journalists are, in this instance going where the story is. It's not the tories that called a vote of no confidence. It's not the tories that are briefing sympathetic journalists against Corbyn. It's not the tories resigning en masse from the shadow cabinet.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • John Palethorpe,

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Rich Lock,

    It's not the tories resigning en masse from the shadow cabinet.

    From Labour's perspective, it is. The Blairites are the right wing, Third Way, centrists so beloved of Blair. I'm not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor, but it's a classic CT ploy, and well publicised, and I doubt that they aren't being encouraged by their "friends" across the aisle to seize the moment and dethrone Corbyn, which serves to distract the media from over-analysing how the real Tories got it so incredibly wrong.

    And the bloke who threw it should be bleeding obvious, even if they aren't standing there going 'Look! Look at the cat!'.

    Poor twisted boy, the best dead cats appear out of nowhere, unattributed and thus unaccountable.

    The cat is the distraction to get people talking about something other than the thing you want to keep quiet. If journos are asking Corbyn how he voted, then they're not asking Cameron to explain why there was a vote in the first place, or Farage and Johnson why they were promising 350m quid a week for the NHS when they had no intention or capability to do so. And particularly asking Cameron's Cabinet why public servants were not permitted to commit Brexit coping strategies to paper, FFS.

    The journalists are, in this instance going where the story is.

    Good thing you weren't planning a career in PR. The journalists go where their editors point them on the basis of what's been heard on the QT from unattributable "sources close to Westminster". There is no doubt that this is a concerted campaign against Corbyn. The only question is who is the ringmaster ordering the clowns to commit suicide.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to John Palethorpe,

    Give this a read. Greenslade nails UK Labour's problem.

    Not bad, but I don't agree as much with this bit:

    There is a now mismatch between what Corbyn and his supporters believe; what the majority of Labour MPs believe; and what the wider community of traditional Labour voters believe.

    I think Corbyn is a lot closer to the traditional Labour voters and their beliefs in what a government should do than Greenslade is willing to give him credit for.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to nzlemming,

    To quote you in full, with added emphasis

    The Tories have just presided over the greatest disaster in the country's history since WWII and we're talking about Corbyn?

    I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
    #deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybook

    You have now clarified thusly...

    I'm not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor

    ...but you can see why an obvious assumption might be made on my part, no?

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Rich Lock,

    I think you'll find that Caleb said the first paragraph. I added a comment that I did not think it accidental that we were talking about Corbyn. Somebody wants it that way. The dead cat distraction is most definitely one of the weapons that CT employ. Its use is well known. It doesn't mean that everyone who uses it has CT on the payroll.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to nzlemming,

    I think Corbyn is a lot closer to the traditional Labour voters and their beliefs in what a government should do than Greenslade is willing to give him credit for

    The Labour party on the other hand, has a lot of 'splainin' to do, Lucy.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to nzlemming,

    I think you'll find that Caleb said the first paragraph.

    Well, yeah, but it wouldnt have made any sense if I hadn't included it to give it context.

    And within the context, my (I argue not unreasonable) assumption was that you were referring to the tories. Them being notorious cat-chuckers an' all, and, to an outside observer, having the most to gain from this.

    But if you're right, I appear to have underestimated the current Labour party's appetite for self-immolation.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to nzlemming,

    From Labour’s perspective, it is. The Blairites are the right wing, Third Way, centrists so beloved of Blair. I’m not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor, but it’s a classic CT ploy, and well publicised, and I doubt that they aren’t being encouraged by their “friends” across the aisle to seize the moment and dethrone Corbyn, which serves to distract the media from over-analysing how the real Tories got it so incredibly wrong.

    Is the more straightforward explanation not that a leader who has now lost a caucus confidence vote 172-40 simply does not have the support of his Parliamentary colleagues?

    What's his plan? Have them all deselected?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22830 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    So Corbyn lost a non-binding no confidence vote among MPs 172 to 40.

    Which probably makes him more popular among MPs than in the original Labour leadership election campaign.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to David Hood,

    So Corbyn lost a non-binding no confidence vote among MPs 172 to 40.

    From The Guardian’s story. When the party rules were revised in 1993, making such a vote formally binding was not considered necessary:

    David Ward said John Smith, the previous leader for whom he was chief of staff, had told him that any leader would have to resign after a vote of no confidence. “You cannot survive,” he said, arguing that it was the only mechanism in the party to force a leader out.

    I imagine Smith would have supposed that a Parliamentary leader who lost a confidence vote by any margin would pack it in, let alone by 130 votes.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22830 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Probably, but what I understand is that the MPs specifically want is both Corbyn out, and for him not to stand in a leadership contest because they think he would win. There seem to have been a number in the Parliamentary Labour Party that have been refighting the leadership campaign for the past 9 months, with past coup attempts called off at the last minutes.

    When, at times like the present, the MPs focus is internal to the Parliamentary wing of the party, against the broader party, and ignoring the Tories, there are fundamental questions that have to be asked around "If you would rather the Tories were in power, than your own party with someone you don't like as leader, are you in the party you should be in"

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    If Corbyn's popularity among is fellow MPs keeps increasing linearly at the present rate (based on the two data points of the leadership race and now), in 18 months he will have a majority of MPs supporting him.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • John Palethorpe, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Different electoral system then, too - and much less of a battle between ideologies within the party.

    The changes which swept Corbyn in were demanded by those MPs who didn't want a repeat of The Wrong Miliband getting in thanks to the Union vote. They wanted more membership power, trusting the membership to pick the right, or the 'right' candidate for the job.

    The same MPs who are now trying to bin Corbyn off and finding the system they wanted has marginalised them even more. Oops.

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    I guess it depends on whether you think the members of a party should be allowed to decide the leadership and direction of that party, or whether you prefer the model (as in NZ National and the CCP) where control flows from the top down and the members are instructed on what to do and think by the centre.

    Brecht had a solution:

    the people
    Had forfeited the confidence of the government
    And could win it back only
    By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
    In that case for the government
    To dissolve the people
    And elect another?

    Die Lösung, 1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_L%C3%B6sung

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank,

    How about a game-player perspective? Labour Party members still playing the antique democracy game, recycling the 19th-century conceptual strait-jacket in the millennium in the hope that everyone will be that simple-minded forever.

    Labour MPs playing the parliamentary numbers game, knowing their power-plays are closer to political reality than the morons who elected them.

    Corbyn, trying to be authentic while conforming to the antique prescription, but not smart enough to know that you can't lead a team if you don't win the support of your fellow-players. Even worse, not using his position to be a statesman and articulate the common interests of the electorate.

    Does it suffice to conclude that leftist sectarian pathology is congenital, and leftists cannot transcend it? Corbyn may lack the insight required to act as game-changer, advisors who are that sophisticated, or both. I liked the imagery of the game of thrones played by teletubbies mentioned earlier as it seems to capture the situation as seen from my distant perspective. Britain needs a player with a sense of humour right now, to slice through the crap with a few well-chosen words...

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Is the more straightforward explanation not that a leader who has now lost a caucus confidence vote 172-40 simply does not have the support of his Parliamentary colleagues?

    A party grouping that has swung to the right and is nervous about an actual left-wing leader because they have been inculcated with the idea that the centre is the place to be. Now he has abandoned the appeasement, wider-tent approach, expect to see a very different Corbyn. It's impossible to put your stamp on anything when everything you say gets contradicted by the people who are supposed to be your primary supporters, as Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband found out.

    What's his plan? Have them all deselected?

    Whether he's planned it or not, I suspect that's going to be the fate of more than a few of them.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming,

    Let me amend that. I expect to see a different Corbyn. You may see what you will.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2932 posts Report Reply

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