Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit
376 Responses
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nzlemming, in reply to
The Tories have just presided over the greatest disaster in the country's history since WWII and we're talking about Corbyn?
I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
#deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybook -
London had a mean Remain vote of 60.9% and a median 61.6%, Islington (i.e. Corbyn area) was 75.22% Remain. about 15% above the region
Yorkshire and The Humber had a mean Remain vote of 41.35% and a median 43.22%, Leeds (i.e. Hilary Benn area) was 50.31% Remain. about 9% above the region
Wales had a mean Remain vote of 46.65% and a median 46.01%, Rhonda (i.e. Chris Bryant area) was 46.30% Remain. a vote typical of the region.
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Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to
+1.
The Blairite conspiracists, meanwhile, remind me of nothing so much as United Future. A bunch of clueless non-entities representing a mythical “centrist” electorate that doesn’t actually exist.
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Ben Austin, in reply to
Agreed, although I'm also equally interested in what to do _next_ as well.
First thing seems easy enough, support the Mayor in his attempts to gain more autonomy for London, both permanently and in short term to be part of negotiations for Brexit.
Second is harder, I'll probably have to hold my nose and join a party.
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Well I can confirm this, almost all of my centrist/left NZ friends who've now lived in London for a few years cannot bring themselves to support Labour at present. These are people I know who've voted Labour and Greens in NZ (so far as anyone can know who someone else votes for).
We are pretty niche sure, but similar things are true for my local friendship/work circle.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
#deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybookOk, so, if this is a dead cat play, where's the corpse? And who threw it?
The thing about the dead cat, is because it's dead and incapable of moving by itself, someone needs to have thrown it onto the table so we can all point and stare and talk about nothing else. And the bloke who threw it should be bleeding obvious, even if they aren't standing there going 'Look! Look at the cat!'.
So point me out a headline, an announcement by the tories, or similar, that could be feasible. The telegraph headline upthread would barely qualify as a sideshow at the moment.
The journalists are, in this instance going where the story is. It's not the tories that called a vote of no confidence. It's not the tories that are briefing sympathetic journalists against Corbyn. It's not the tories resigning en masse from the shadow cabinet.
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Give this a read. Greenslade nails UK Labour's problem.
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nzlemming, in reply to
It's not the tories resigning en masse from the shadow cabinet.
From Labour's perspective, it is. The Blairites are the right wing, Third Way, centrists so beloved of Blair. I'm not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor, but it's a classic CT ploy, and well publicised, and I doubt that they aren't being encouraged by their "friends" across the aisle to seize the moment and dethrone Corbyn, which serves to distract the media from over-analysing how the real Tories got it so incredibly wrong.
And the bloke who threw it should be bleeding obvious, even if they aren't standing there going 'Look! Look at the cat!'.
Poor twisted boy, the best dead cats appear out of nowhere, unattributed and thus unaccountable.
The cat is the distraction to get people talking about something other than the thing you want to keep quiet. If journos are asking Corbyn how he voted, then they're not asking Cameron to explain why there was a vote in the first place, or Farage and Johnson why they were promising 350m quid a week for the NHS when they had no intention or capability to do so. And particularly asking Cameron's Cabinet why public servants were not permitted to commit Brexit coping strategies to paper, FFS.
The journalists are, in this instance going where the story is.
Good thing you weren't planning a career in PR. The journalists go where their editors point them on the basis of what's been heard on the QT from unattributable "sources close to Westminster". There is no doubt that this is a concerted campaign against Corbyn. The only question is who is the ringmaster ordering the clowns to commit suicide.
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nzlemming, in reply to
Give this a read. Greenslade nails UK Labour's problem.
Not bad, but I don't agree as much with this bit:
There is a now mismatch between what Corbyn and his supporters believe; what the majority of Labour MPs believe; and what the wider community of traditional Labour voters believe.
I think Corbyn is a lot closer to the traditional Labour voters and their beliefs in what a government should do than Greenslade is willing to give him credit for.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
To quote you in full, with added emphasis
The Tories have just presided over the greatest disaster in the country's history since WWII and we're talking about Corbyn?
I do not believe that is accidental, myself.
#deadcat #CrosbyTextorPlaybookYou have now clarified thusly...
I'm not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor
...but you can see why an obvious assumption might be made on my part, no?
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nzlemming, in reply to
I think you'll find that Caleb said the first paragraph. I added a comment that I did not think it accidental that we were talking about Corbyn. Somebody wants it that way. The dead cat distraction is most definitely one of the weapons that CT employ. Its use is well known. It doesn't mean that everyone who uses it has CT on the payroll.
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nzlemming, in reply to
I think Corbyn is a lot closer to the traditional Labour voters and their beliefs in what a government should do than Greenslade is willing to give him credit for
The Labour party on the other hand, has a lot of 'splainin' to do, Lucy.
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Rich Lock, in reply to
I think you'll find that Caleb said the first paragraph.
Well, yeah, but it wouldnt have made any sense if I hadn't included it to give it context.
And within the context, my (I argue not unreasonable) assumption was that you were referring to the tories. Them being notorious cat-chuckers an' all, and, to an outside observer, having the most to gain from this.
But if you're right, I appear to have underestimated the current Labour party's appetite for self-immolation.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
From Labour’s perspective, it is. The Blairites are the right wing, Third Way, centrists so beloved of Blair. I’m not saying Benn et al are being advised by CrosbyTextor, but it’s a classic CT ploy, and well publicised, and I doubt that they aren’t being encouraged by their “friends” across the aisle to seize the moment and dethrone Corbyn, which serves to distract the media from over-analysing how the real Tories got it so incredibly wrong.
Is the more straightforward explanation not that a leader who has now lost a caucus confidence vote 172-40 simply does not have the support of his Parliamentary colleagues?
What's his plan? Have them all deselected?
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So Corbyn lost a non-binding no confidence vote among MPs 172 to 40.
Which probably makes him more popular among MPs than in the original Labour leadership election campaign.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
So Corbyn lost a non-binding no confidence vote among MPs 172 to 40.
From The Guardian’s story. When the party rules were revised in 1993, making such a vote formally binding was not considered necessary:
David Ward said John Smith, the previous leader for whom he was chief of staff, had told him that any leader would have to resign after a vote of no confidence. “You cannot survive,” he said, arguing that it was the only mechanism in the party to force a leader out.
I imagine Smith would have supposed that a Parliamentary leader who lost a confidence vote by any margin would pack it in, let alone by 130 votes.
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Probably, but what I understand is that the MPs specifically want is both Corbyn out, and for him not to stand in a leadership contest because they think he would win. There seem to have been a number in the Parliamentary Labour Party that have been refighting the leadership campaign for the past 9 months, with past coup attempts called off at the last minutes.
When, at times like the present, the MPs focus is internal to the Parliamentary wing of the party, against the broader party, and ignoring the Tories, there are fundamental questions that have to be asked around "If you would rather the Tories were in power, than your own party with someone you don't like as leader, are you in the party you should be in"
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If Corbyn's popularity among is fellow MPs keeps increasing linearly at the present rate (based on the two data points of the leadership race and now), in 18 months he will have a majority of MPs supporting him.
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John Palethorpe, in reply to
Different electoral system then, too - and much less of a battle between ideologies within the party.
The changes which swept Corbyn in were demanded by those MPs who didn't want a repeat of The Wrong Miliband getting in thanks to the Union vote. They wanted more membership power, trusting the membership to pick the right, or the 'right' candidate for the job.
The same MPs who are now trying to bin Corbyn off and finding the system they wanted has marginalised them even more. Oops.
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I guess it depends on whether you think the members of a party should be allowed to decide the leadership and direction of that party, or whether you prefer the model (as in NZ National and the CCP) where control flows from the top down and the members are instructed on what to do and think by the centre.
Brecht had a solution:
the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?Die Lösung, 1953 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Die_L%C3%B6sung
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How about a game-player perspective? Labour Party members still playing the antique democracy game, recycling the 19th-century conceptual strait-jacket in the millennium in the hope that everyone will be that simple-minded forever.
Labour MPs playing the parliamentary numbers game, knowing their power-plays are closer to political reality than the morons who elected them.
Corbyn, trying to be authentic while conforming to the antique prescription, but not smart enough to know that you can't lead a team if you don't win the support of your fellow-players. Even worse, not using his position to be a statesman and articulate the common interests of the electorate.
Does it suffice to conclude that leftist sectarian pathology is congenital, and leftists cannot transcend it? Corbyn may lack the insight required to act as game-changer, advisors who are that sophisticated, or both. I liked the imagery of the game of thrones played by teletubbies mentioned earlier as it seems to capture the situation as seen from my distant perspective. Britain needs a player with a sense of humour right now, to slice through the crap with a few well-chosen words...
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nzlemming, in reply to
Is the more straightforward explanation not that a leader who has now lost a caucus confidence vote 172-40 simply does not have the support of his Parliamentary colleagues?
A party grouping that has swung to the right and is nervous about an actual left-wing leader because they have been inculcated with the idea that the centre is the place to be. Now he has abandoned the appeasement, wider-tent approach, expect to see a very different Corbyn. It's impossible to put your stamp on anything when everything you say gets contradicted by the people who are supposed to be your primary supporters, as Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband found out.
What's his plan? Have them all deselected?
Whether he's planned it or not, I suspect that's going to be the fate of more than a few of them.
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Let me amend that. I expect to see a different Corbyn. You may see what you will.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Let me amend that. I expect to see a different Corbyn. You may see what you will.
I had no strong feelings either way about Corbyn, but what I'm seeing now is a man whose day-to-day job is leading the Parliamentary Labour Party. And 80% of those he is supposed to lead have formally declared no confidence in his leadership.
Even Liz McInnes, who voted for him in the confidence vote has now resigned her shadow Cabinet post and called for him to step down.
Your confidence that, having been overwhelmingly rejected by his MPs and had his shadow Cabinet wrecked to the extent that he's struggling to fill it with supporters, he will soon display hitherto unseen qualities and lead Labour to victory (or even run an effective Opposition) is admirable, but I don't share it.
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Reminds me of David Lange in 1989. NZ Labour got most of a decade in the wilderness for those crazy five years, and a permanent hole in its left wing support base that's only been filled when it plays nicely with its support parties. Building a majority isn't an easy job.
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