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Speaker: A Disorderly Brexit

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  • linger, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Why is nobody demanding a free vote in the Commons on Brexit?

    Like David Lammy, for example?

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1928 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to linger,

    Exactly like that dude. Thanks for the pointer, linger.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    It’s rather disappointing that no one seems to have thought about all this in advance …

    Nobody seems to have thought anything though -- but never mind, Boris has assured us all the EU really wants to hang out with the people who just told them to fuck off, If this stoned Womble is going to be responsible for leading negotiations on a trade deal with the EU and minimize whatever tariffs result, then the British economy hasn't even begun to feel the pain.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • John Palethorpe, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Lammy's agitating for something simple in a complex environment - it's the sort of straight line thinking that looks smart, but ends up causing more havoc. That percentage of voters who voted Leave and who vote Labour, in the North, would definitely fuck Labour off for UKIP if a London MP orchestrated some sort of overturning of the result. They might anyway, but it's a dangerous game to be playing.

    Nobody's thought about the legislation - Belfast particularly - because hardly anyone thought it would actually happen. It's a breathtaking gamble gone suffocatingly wrong.

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Marc C,

    What appears to not have been given that much consideration here is the role of the UK press in all this outcome.

    Glenn Greenwald tackles that issue nicely.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1436 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie,

    Having spent most of the weekend glued to the world's press, I'll admit to being Brexit-ed out today. What a godforsaken mess the UK has brought down upon itself.

    Putting aside the London vs the rest division, in general it was the better educated and the young who voted strongly for remain, while older people and the poorly educated voted leave. The Sun and the Daily Mail led the charge for leaving the EU, and their demographic followed suit. It's quickly becoming obvious that even Boris and his lot did not expect this outcome.

    Those who voted for Brexit believing it would herald a return to some mythical, 1950s Britain where all the faces are white and there's full employment for all are sadly mistaken. That was never a possibility. We now know that these people were blatantly lied to by Farage and Boris.

    It's hard to see the result as anything other than a swing to the right for England. Some commentators are suggesting that, freed from the constraints of EU law, the Tory Party will move to a form of "super-Thatcherism". I guess the desirability of that prospect comes down to your own political preferences, but to me, neoliberalism on steroids is the worst possible outcome. The rich will continue to get wealthier, the poor will become even poorer, and everyone will still blame the immigrants.

    While there's a certain irony in the fact that Prime Minister Pigfucker inflicted this disaster on his own ruling elite, in terms of political fuckups, this one is off the scale.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1436 posts Report Reply

  • Marc C, in reply to Alfie,

    Yes, thanks for that, indeed, alienation, loss of credibility, which includes the media establishment, and reading the following, that is the scary stuff we face:

    “The rise of ISIS and the foothold it seized in Iraq and Libya were the direct byproducts of the West’s military actions (as even Tony Blair admitted regarding Iraq). ”

    "INDEED MEDIA REACTION to the Brexit vote — filled with unreflective rage, condescension, and contempt toward those who voted wrong — perfectly illustrates the dynamics that caused all of this in the first place. Media elites, by virtue of their position, adore the status quo. It rewards them, vests them with prestige and position, welcomes them into exclusive circles, allows them to be close to (if not themselves wielding) great power while traveling their country and the world, provides them with a platform, fills them with esteem and purpose. The same is true of academic elites, financial elites, and political elites. Elites love the status quo that has given them, and then protected, their elite position."

    There is likely to be worse to come, worse than a Brexit and worse than even ISIS, as the elite within the system is not only losing credibility, it is fast running out of answers to all these challenges we face, not just in the UK. A collapse of existing order is possible, eventually on a global scale, exposing us to new forms of anarchy, not pleasant forms of anarchy, and the harsh reaction to it.

    Auckland • Since Oct 2012 • 437 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to John Palethorpe,

    UKIP would have trouble unseating Labour in safe northern seats:
    - they’re basically disgruntled Tories. The UK votes largely on class lines
    - they don’t have any organisation
    - they’d cannibalise the Tory vote first
    - British (south) Asians would never vote for them

    I think they’d struggle to get a hundred seats

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • John Palethorpe, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Um, except UKIP came second in a LOT of seats in 2015, and that was to Labour in the North. They also became the second preference in a lot of South Eastern Tory seats as the Liberal Democrats folded.

    Looking at how areas like Hartlepool voted strongly for Leave and Labour's continuing woes at connecting with their former base, you can't just say everyone votes along class lines any more - because that hasn't been true for a while. UKIP are taking Tory votes, true, but they're also taking Labour votes as well.

    They're organised enough to get the third biggest number of votes in 2015 and come first in the European elections in 2014. Dismissing them out of hand is EXACTLY what Labour and the Tories did, to their own detriment.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ukip-came-second-in-120-constituencies-in-2015-will-this-be-a-springboard-for-the-party-in-2020/

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to John Palethorpe,

    2015 general election:
    - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_and_Sunderland_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houghton_and_Sunderland_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunderland_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    UKIP were 30 odd percent behind Labour, even where they came second. And once the redundancy notices start going out from Nissan, I think they’ll be even less popular.

    Not that Labour should be complacent, but I think a strong lead based on staying in European and reforming it to support working people might let them hold onto their base.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Marc C,

    INDEED MEDIA REACTION to the Brexit vote — filled with unreflective rage, condescension, and contempt toward those who voted wrong —

    Thank you, Glenn. Greenwald might want to run his own "elite media" filters under a tap, because I was reading a lot of perfectly legitimate anxiety from PoC, and advocates for workers and migrants about how Brexit rhetoric would translate into cold hard reality. I'm sorry if their tone wasn't suitably chilly for Mr. Greenwald's refined sensibilities, but I guess that's something a white American man never has to see unless he chooses to.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The Guardian's 10 Britons who voted Leave and why article is interesting.

    They're clearly not terrible people, but I think quite a few hopes are going to be dashed.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22830 posts Report Reply

  • Rob S, in reply to nzlemming,

    EU realpolitik: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/the-eu-will-treat-britain-like-greece/</q>

    Britain has already treated Britain in the same manner that the E.U. treated Greece if you refer to an imposed cut in Government spending in the middle of a recession which needs the opposite treatment to keep the economy ticking over. All with no concern to the social costs imposed.

    Since Apr 2010 • 136 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The Guardian’s 10 Britons who voted Leave and why article is interesting.

    I must say that the Guardian is doing a brilliant job of reporting this disaster.

    The main focus of those ten leave voters seems to be a desire to rebel against neo-conservatism. The irony is that they're blaming the EU for their situation when in fact the opposite is true. There's no way that a more right-wing tory government is going to grant their collective wishes and bring about a more equitable society.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1436 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Gordon Campbell touches on the neolib angle.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19707 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    Best comment ever: "Perhaps it wasn't a good idea to hold a referendum with the same people who came up with Boaty McBoatface."

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • Hugh Wilson,

    Another drop in the ocean of commentary, by Jeffrey Sachs @ UN Sustainable Development Network, replete with broad geopolitical suggestions:

    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-meaning-of-brexit/

    With the passage of a few days, and much commentary, my raised eyebrow about the referendum result doesn't necessarily seem so raised any more ...

    Melbourne • Since Feb 2013 • 167 posts Report Reply

  • Zach Bagnall, in reply to Alfie,

    I must say that the Guardian is doing a brilliant job of reporting this disaster.

    The FT has been terrific throughout as well. If you hit the paywall, just google the title text and hit the link.

    Colorado • Since Nov 2006 • 120 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Hugh Wilson,

    Another drop in the ocean of commentary, by Jeffrey Sachs @ UN Sustainable Development Network

    Sachs is an interesting person. He's one of the only economists to switch sides from being an avowed Freidmanite who helped to destroy democracies in Latin America, Poland and Russia by advising them on making the transition to market-led economies, to developing a humanist perspective which actually considers the poor.

    That's a major leap in ideology.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1436 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    They haven't really been complete mess-ups but to the extent they have been mess-ups it has been that they overestimate Guardian opinions and underestimate Daily Mail and Telegraph ones.

    I have no idea what you mean by that.

    However, the 2015 general election polling was wrong (completely missing the 'outright majority' that eventuated). The polling in the runup to the referendum was also wrong (giving remain a narow lead, albeit within the margin of error).

    All of this polling was carried out by professional polling companies, who you would have thought knew what they were doing and could add in the appropriate correction factors, esecially since they got a pretty good kicking post-general election.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    stoned Womble

    Bravo, sir. Stealing that.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers,

    God. Former Labour Shadow Minister Chris Bryant was just on BBC Breakfast explaining why he and his colleagues are resigning en masse. “We need a strong leader who can unite the party,” he said, while ignoring the membership and tearing the party apart. When asked if he had a potential “strong leader” in mind, he insisted that he didn’t. Well, that was a good case on behalf of the PLP, Chris. Keep digging.

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers,

    Judging by the BBC coverage, we are well into “this is fine” territory. Osborne insists the economy is basically strong and that he is working with EU and IMF colleagues; Merkel’s statement that there is no need to rush is being widely reported; the key message seems to be: “don’t panic; we got this.” The markets are up so far.

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • John Palethorpe,

    Osborne's hospital passed to his replacement, so the Autumn Budget is the one that will involve the huge readjustment to finances. Taken a leaf out of Cameron's book there.

    More Corbyn shadow cabinet ministers resigning this morning - but Corbyn's got replacement for yesterdays resignees. It took him 11 days to reshuffle because the Blairy lot played it difficult.

    It's taken him less than 24 hours to do it without being conciliatory to them. All those resignation letters, all that media time, and he's gone nowhere and shuffled them off to the backbench. G'wan the boy Corbs.

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Hooton, in reply to Rich Lock,

    I have no idea what you mean by that.

    1. The polls haven't been as massively out as people seem to think.
    2. To the extent they have been out, they have overestimated Labour and Remain and underestimated Conservatives and Leave.

    Auckland • Since Aug 2007 • 194 posts Report Reply

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