Legal Beagle by Graeme Edgeler

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Legal Beagle: Paula's Peril; or The (un)certain Scenario

99 Responses

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  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Cocytus,

    The Sainte-Laguë method ...is not a percentage of the vote = number of seats system. If it was then National's 47.31% of the vote translates to only 56 seats not 59.

    Yes it is.

    The reason why 47.31% of the vote => 59 seats is that:

    3.37% of the votes went to parties that didn't make threshold.
    47.31 / (100-3.37) = 48.96%
    48.96 * 120 = 59 seats (by simple rounding and ignoring the 121st overhang seat)

    St Lague is just a way of fairly and consistently rounding off the numbers.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Cocytus: Sainte-Laguë just ensures the (root mean square) difference between the % of seats and % of vote is as small as possible for any given number of seats. Any other calculation makes parliament less proportional on average, including things like thresholds, which is how National gets too many seats (their higher share of the votes mean more of the binned vote transfers to them).

    One thing that might help it is letting parties share their excess vote around as they please, so that the 3-4 left wing parties don't all round down while the 2-3 right wing parties all round up. Might alienate voters, of course, unless done up front.

    Since Nov 2006 • 610 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to Danielle,

    Is there any MMP scenario in which the voters of Waitakere get to pelt her leopard-skin ministerial car with rotten fruit as it drives humiliatedly out of town? Because that's what I would really, really like.

    Perhaps, as she drives away for the last time, Waitakere voters could line the avenues and give her a fitting send-off with this song? Poignant.

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • merc,

    But but the dream is not over, the cuts will continue and the list saves the day for Paula.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Caleb D'Anvers,

    Perhaps, as she drives away for the last time, Waitakere voters could line the avenues and give her a fitting send-off with this song?

    My daughter can do "Now I only want you gone" from the Portal 2 game on ukulele, but we are at the other end of the country.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic,

    Joke time…

    A vagrant is sitting on a roadside park bench in West Auckland, when out of nowhere, Paula Bennett’s leopard-skinned ministerial limo zooms past. Several minutes later, two stocky men struggle and heave to haul a very obviously stolen money safe. Still another several minutes later, the cops show up. One cop asks the vagrant, “Excuse me sir, but did you happen to see any fat thieves going this way?” To which the vagrant replies, “Sure did… but you better hurry, ’cause you won’t be able to nab ’em on foot.”

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5430 posts Report Reply

  • Brent Jackson, in reply to Paul Campbell,

    I think the threshold should be set to that required to get 2 MPs into the house (somewhere around 1.5%), in order to avoid a proliferation of single MP parties (we get more than enough of those via the electorate votes ;-).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 618 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Brent Jackson,

    There shouldn't even be single MP parties by definition.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Brent Jackson,

    I'd agree with that.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    fat

    classy

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • merc, in reply to Sacha,

    Yeah that sucked.

    Since Dec 2006 • 2471 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole,

    DPF is reporting that Bennett won by a nine-vote majority in the recount. Not up on any news sites yet, but if he's saying it I'm fairly confident that it's true.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Matthew Poole,

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Sacha,

    Bugger.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2934 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to nzlemming,

    Bugger.

    This had to happen for my scenario to come true. Now for the next step.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3207 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,

    I do hope there's a petition. No real reason not to try, at least. It matters a lot to the outcome for both government and opposition. Could Waitakere mirror Wairarapa, and flip on a petition, by a very small margin? Magnifying the power of the Maori party hugely.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10653 posts Report Reply

  • Danielle,

    WAAAARGH. A scrofulous pox upon you, Paula Bennett. Get out of my life.

    Charo World. Cuchi-cuchi!… • Since Nov 2006 • 3828 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Danielle,

    + a zillion - sandfly bites or zits would also do fine.

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes, in reply to Islander,

    + a zillion - sandfly bites or zits would also do fine.

    As they say in Libya...
    "May your body hair be infested by the fleas of a thousand camels"
    or so I've heard. Wonderful people.
    ;-)

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Lilith __,

    Going from +11 to -9 is quite a change considering how carefully the counting is done. If I were Sepuloni I’d totally go for a petition.

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3891 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes, in reply to Lilith __,

    Attachment

    Going from +11 to -9 is quite a change

    Not only that but there is something not quite right about a round number, exactly 20 votes found lying around somewhere all with Bennett's name on them? or exactly 20 votes discounted for Sepuloni . Fishy eh?
    If you are going to steal an election you should, at least, use random numbers. Damn sloppy if you ask me.
    And another thing. What's all this with blinglish saying you can't fix poverty by throwing money at it? like duh. Poverty IS having no money. Nasty looking bugger too.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Lilith __, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    Nasty looking bugger too.

    Handsome is as handsome does.

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3891 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Barnes, in reply to Lilith __,

    Handsome is as handsome does.

    Hmmm, Forrest Gump moment.
    ;-)

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    Attachment

    And another thing. What's all this with blinglish saying you can't fix poverty by throwing money at it? like duh. Poverty IS having no money. Nasty looking bugger too.

    With apologies to Jonathan Swift...

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5430 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    Dear heaven - if only he had had the graphics!

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

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