Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Prospects

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  • Craig Ranapia,

    I expect it to be competent.

    Well, I actually prefer competence to the 'vision thing' -- but I guess that's as much a function of temperament as politics. As the old saw has it, you campaign in poetry but govern in prose.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Well, I actually prefer competence to the 'vision thing'

    Oh, sure. I've never seen managerial government as a particularly bad thing myself.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    Yeah I can't get a read on Key either, as I've said before he seems to be a cipher - people seem to project what they want on him - to me he seems bland.

    I've worked for enough tech companies over the year to see this as just being one of the marketting guys - and I have enough stories about those guys to make your hair stand on end - it just runs my BS detector way way up

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • Grant McDougall,

    In 20 years' time, those achievements will be regarded as prodigious and defining of an era. The fact that Helen Clark signed a painting for charity, or that her car once went really fast with a police escort on an open road; or the absurd mythology constructed around the departure of an under-performing police commissioner; none of these will be thought of as anything important.

    Good call. A year or so ago I was talking to Brian Roper, a political scientist at Otago (and one of about three die-hard Marxists in NZ) and he said much the same thing. "They will be remembered very favourably" , he said.
    Apart from their major achievements, one thing I am very pleased has happened is that there was no major, radical reforms that really threw the country around, as Rogernomics, privatisation, Ruthenasia, etc, did. It's all been very steady and moderate. Should National win, I hope they go slow and steady as well - the country does not need nor want fast, radical changes.

    Dunedin • Since Dec 2006 • 760 posts Report Reply

  • Glenn Pearce,

    My only hope is that we know who the PM is this time next week.

    Auckland • Since Feb 2007 • 504 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    But in a week when our election has seemed dull in comparison to what happened in America

    not so much dull as quaint... it's been a bit like watching the local borough council strut their stuff.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Yeah I can't get a read on Key either, as I've said before he seems to be a cipher - people seem to project what they want on him - to me he seems bland.

    Well, as I said on that thread that won't die, Obama's new CoS Rahm Emmanuel is anything but bland. I just hope he's going to chill a bit before the Cylon-like poise of Obama -- whose most impressive feature to me isn't the colour of his skin, but the unflappable calm of his character.

    Taking my partisan hat off for a moment, I'll say what I've been saying for a long time -- Labour's "John Key will arse-rape your kid's puppy" strategy was dumb, because he's not more that person than Helen Clark is some hairy-pitted lesbian separatist or 'Obambi' (as my dear friend Mr. Bremner calls the P-EOTUS) is some bomb-heaving Marxist jihadi.

    Perhaps the punditry is all right -- and politics is boring, and politicians are boring and democracies should run to keep ADHD-afflicted chimps with press passes amused. But I'm remarkably relaxed by that.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew E,

    not so much dull as quaint... it's been a bit like watching the local borough council strut their stuff.

    All though I did get robo-called by the National candidate for Wellington Central last night.

    Sadly half his name was lost at the start of the recording on my answer machine and he neglected to say again during the message who he was. So much for trying to get name recognition.

    But that's the first contact I've had from any of the candidates in my constituency all election. No leaflets etc.

    174.77 x 41.28 • Since Sep 2008 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    I actually don't mind waiting - sure it's a letdown if you don't know right away - but I think it's healthy that they take their time and get it right - it's part of what MMP is all about

    I do wish the whole process was more open - I want to see agendas exposed and compromises made - because IMHO that's the healthy thing that MMP does for us - provides a mechanism to make public compromises rather than being stuck with dogmatism

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2622 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    Labour's "John Key will arse-rape your kid's puppy" strategy was dumb

    Oh bollocks. Labour's strategy was to argue that Key was slippery to the point of being fundamentally untrustworthy. And given his willingness to promise (almost) anything he thinks the audience wants to hear, they're right.

    Once ensconced in power, with a substantial majority (over Labour), National will abandon its centrist and left-wing promises (made to centrist and left-wing audiences) in favour of the same old crap they tried in the 90s.

    For example, Tony Ryall will try to re-Uptonize the health care system.

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

  • Glenn Pearce,

    I actually don't mind waiting

    I don't think it's in anyone's interest the way the world economies are at the moment if we have a protracted 8 week negotiation process. I actually think there might be a bit of backlash if that happens.

    I've worked for enough tech companies over the year to see this as just being one of the marketting guys - and I have enough stories about those guys to make your hair stand on end - it just runs my BS detector way way up

    If John Key starts giving PowerPoint presentations we're in trouble

    Auckland • Since Feb 2007 • 504 posts Report Reply

  • Jeremy Eade,

    If labour do leave I can't help seeing parables with the Democratic
    loss in 2000.

    A competent fiscally conservative socially progressive government beaten by a "breath of fresh air."

    auckland • Since Mar 2008 • 1112 posts Report Reply

  • Hadyn Green,

    No leaflets etc.

    Count yourself lucky. I've been shoveling them out of our "no junk mail" letterbox and into the recycle bin

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Hosking,

    If John Key starts giving PowerPoint presentations we're in trouble.

    Not so much that. Everyone does those nowadays. (and as someone once said, Powerpoint corrupts, but absolute Powerpoint corrupts absolutely...).

    If he starts talking about paradigm shifts though, I'm going to deeply regret maybe voting for him (will decide tomorrow. Hell, I've got another 24 hours).

    South Roseneath • Since Nov 2006 • 830 posts Report Reply

  • David Cormack,

    I have less fear this election than I did last time. I'm sorta resigned to some form of right-wing government being formed but I comfort myself with the (potentially naive) thought that whomever wins, they will do what they genuinely believe is best for New Zealand.

    Suburbia, Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 218 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    a protracted 8 week negotiation process.

    Pfft. I'd be surprised if it takes 8 hours. Negotiations shouldn't be much more complicated than this:

    John: Hey Rodders, wanna form a government?

    Rodders: OK, can I bring my mate?

    John: Yep, I have vacancies in Transport and Immigration anyway. Hold on, I've got Pete on the other line. How's it going Pete?

    Pete: Jolly good, y'know I've just won Ohario for the 17th consecutive election. I'll be around longer than Jonathan Hunt at this rate. Speaking of old Johno, can I play Speaker?

    John: Sure, would you like a Crown limosine with that?

    Pete: Yep.

    John: Done. I'm off to call old whatshisface, the Gov'nor General. He lives in Epsom just down the road from me anyway, perhaps I'll pay a personal visit?

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

  • Mikaere Curtis,

    My only hope is that we know who the PM is this time next week.

    Not me, I want the opposite because it will likely mean that the Maori Party are holding hui to decide which major party is offering the best deal. And that means there will be a chance for a Labour-led government. And that means Green ministers. IMO, one of the issues for the Greens is that while it's OK to point out the best way to do something, it is entirely another thing to demonstrate that your solutions are workable.

    Thanks Russell for linking back to your '99 Hard News item. I remember forwarding it to everyone at my work because it was such a good summary of why National had to go.

    My favourite quote:

    The media has sometimes been guilty of not just navel-gazing but of actually interviewing its own navel.

    Heh. Does anyone miss Paul Holmes ?

    I will, as ever, vote for the party whose policies I prefer.

    Hmm, I recall a certain pre-election Hard News back in '93 where you exhorted a vote for Labour over the Alliance on the basis of experience. Or maybe that was just splitting policy hairs ? Ah, the ephemeral pre-internet Hard News...where you had to be listening to the B at the right time, or wait until next week.

    Tamaki Makaurau • Since Nov 2006 • 528 posts Report Reply

  • David Cormack,

    (I'm prepared to feel more optimistic if Giovanni offers one of those sure-fire predictions of a left-led government that he used for Obama)

    Suburbia, Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 218 posts Report Reply

  • Newsprint,

    I'm sorta resigned to some form of right-wing government being formed but I comfort myself with the (potentially naive) thought that whomever wins, they will do what they genuinely believe is best for New Zealand.

    Sigh

    Wellington • Since Mar 2008 • 42 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Once ensconced in power, with a substantial majority (over Labour), National will abandon its centrist and left-wing promises (made to centrist and left-wing audiences) in favour of the same old crap they tried in the 90s.

    And how is that working out, again? I can remember when National was running the argument if that two-faced be-atch Clark ever got her skinny arse on the Treasury benches we'd all be singing the Internationale before morning tea. Know why that didn't work - because even if you weren't a fan of Labour, it was a horribly implausible argument.

    Anyway, I'm not assuming a damn thing before the only poll that really matters has even opened.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    And how is that working out, again? I can remember when National was running the argument if that two-faced be-atch Clark ever got her skinny arse on the Treasury benches we'd all be singing the Internationale before morning tea. Know why that didn't work - because even if you weren't a fan of Labour, it was a horribly implausible argument.

    Well, I can't countenance the idea that the likes of Ryall, McCully, Williamson, Brownlee, the Smiths etc. are capable of changing their spots.

    Moreover, there are plenty of "commentators" around (see "Your Views", KB) who appear to believe that Clark has led an "extreme socialist government". Make of that what you will.

    Anyway, I'm not assuming a damn thing before the only poll that really matters has even opened.

    Well, good on for that. Though I fear the outcome is (a) very clear and (b) set in stone, by this point.

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

  • Robyn Gallagher,

    I was talking to an 18-year-old who will be voting for the first time tomorrow.

    I asked her who she was voting for, and she said, "Not Helen Clark! I'm soooo sick of her!" But, I said, you can't vote against someone; you can only vote for someone.

    So she decided she would probably vote for ACT because "Rodney Hide is quite funny."

    It made me think she was treating it like a text vote for a TV talent show.

    Raglan • Since Nov 2006 • 1946 posts Report Reply

  • Ian MacKay,

    Great summary Russell.
    Who is John Key? He has been asked and at his age he at least should know. I don't think he has a deeply held philosophy which means his answers seem to be based on differing needs for different audiences. I think Helen has a long held philosophy which allows her to be clear on answers to most questions as she lines it up with her philosophy.
    I have been saying for a long time that the beginning of the 21 Century will be seen later as the last of a great summer. Thanks Helen and friends.

    Bleheim • Since Nov 2006 • 498 posts Report Reply

  • Lyndon Hood,

    some of National's policies

    I'd just like to say in every forum I can manage...

    They mean to DNA test innocent people for the police database.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1115 posts Report Reply

  • dc_red,

    So she decided she would probably vote for ACT because "Rodney Hide is quite funny."
    It made me think she was treating it like a text vote for a TV talent show.

    I am soooo sick of ACT supporters - can we vote them off the island(s)?

    Oil Patch, Alberta • Since Nov 2006 • 706 posts Report Reply

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