Hard News: Dirty Politics
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And once again, when challenged on an issue, you alter your initial positon to try to pretend that what you said wasn’t actually what you meant.
In what way do you think that my position has changed?
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There is a public meeting to hear Nicky Hager at the Hannah Playhouse tonight Wed at 6 pm. Has an admission charge. Formerly known a Downstage. I see Jim Bolger and Jim Anderton are speaking in this series next week.
This probably sounds a bit new agey but when listening to Nicky Hager speak (simply and without notes or powerpoint) it feels like you are listening to one of those rare wise and ethical people that countries really should treasure.
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Roger Lacey, in reply to
In what way do you think that my position has changed?
Can we move the discussion on rather than get bogged down in futile, point scoring semantics?
The full half hour -
Alfie, in reply to
Can we move the discussion on rather than get bogged down in futile, point scoring semantics?
+1
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Kim Dotcom doubts that his revelations next Monday about the extent of our country's role in mass global surveillance and his (alleged / anticipated) proof that John Key lied, will damage Key's credibility or convince voters to change the Government.
Dotcom mused that the apparently limited impact of Nicky Hager's book Dirty Politics on Mr Key's popularity meant that the Prime Minister could probably be photographed "shooting little kittens in his garden with a shotgun", and still be popular.
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Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to
I’m not certain of the data source or its reliability. Even if I maximise possible voters (3,233,492) by including the estimated unregistered people of voting age and minimise counted votes by only including valid party votes (2,237,464), I can still only get the non-voters up to 30.8% rather than 34%, but the gist of the chart still tells a story.
That was where I got to as well. There are various versions of that pie graph around. I sent this one through to Martyn Bradbury back in June, (he previously had the image you'd linked to). There's also this version, which might have been a later one I did, I can't remember now, but the important point in each one is that the non-voting/informal vote is a little lower than in the original, but still certainly big enough to swing the outcome wildly in any sort of direction.
In 2011, "enrolled but didn't vote" was 25.8% of the enrolled population, and then there was a percentage of those who did vote who voted informally or blank. So it depends on how many you think weren't enrolled how big the dark grey slice of the pie is.
At the time, I went and had a look at the 2012 NZ Social Survey. They only had 20% of people admitting to not voting in the 2011 election, though it's clear from the enrolment figures and turnout that that should be at least 25%. But their compliance with the survey was 80%, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a correlation between not voting and not participating in the Social Survey. It would have to be an almost perfect correlation for the 34% non-voter figure to be correct, and I think that's not so likely. I think I then went to the 2013 census and looked at how many people NZ residents there were of voting age, and that takes you to that 30-point-something percent figure. But if I were doing it again now, I'd want to chop the dark grey up further into "not enrolled" and "enrolled but didn't vote".
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
the Prime Minister could probably be photographed “shooting little kittens in his garden with a shotgun”, and still be popular.
Gareth Morgan would lead the cheer squad on that one.
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Four weeks today since the launch of Dirty Politics. Remember that no one knew what it was going to be about this time on the 13th August. This thread alone is almost up to 100,000 views, one cabinet minister is gone, while numerous commentators have claimed it is only a beltway issue and is now over.
It will probably take a bit longer for many of the population to ‘hear’ the message of just how dirty was the two pronged policy of attack politics run out of the PM’s office. Attack through blogs and friends in the media those who are a challenge, while leaving the man at the top untouched.
This sort of unethical politics is just not the NZ way. Its aim to make people cynical about politics and therefore turn off altogether- thereby allowing the ruling party to keep power via a relatively small percentage of those eligible to vote – is something we can all fight back against.
We all need to encourage all our family members, colleagues and friends to talk about the issues and vote. Even if the conversations are uncomfortable.
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numerous commentators have claimed it is only a beltway issue and is now over.
Wishfull thinking.
No vast right wing conspiracy here, nothing to see, move along now. -
Rich of Observationz, in reply to
I think it's moved on from "dirty politics":
The Justice Minister working with Slater to undermine the prosecution of a large scale financial fraudster isn't like mouthing off on a blog, it's out and out corruption.
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Also, in case anyone else is as interested in these things, StatsNZ have provided s fascinating summary of the reasons non-voters gave for not voting, at http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/people_and_communities/Well-being/civic-human-rights/non-voters-2008-2011-gen-elections.aspx
There's a huge sampling error range in there, so caution as ever - and in particular, worth remembering that people who didn't respond to the social survey possibly mostly didn't vote either, but haven't given their reasons for not doing so.
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BenWilson, in reply to
Yes, that is very interesting. Curious that labourers and tradies have very high non-voting stats. But everything is confounded by the really big contributor, age. Maybe almost all the other correlations are subsumed into that - the young are the most likely to be unemployed, most labourers are younger, and youth incomes are much lower. Even ethnic group, which would seem to be independent of age, might not be. Don't Maori and Asians have a demographic bulge at the low end - Maori because of poor mortality stats, and high birthrates, and Asians because of the massive student population?
The big picture is that young people don't vote anywhere near as much as older people. That much is very clear.
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Angela Hart, in reply to
This thread alone is almost up to 100,000 views
That's good to know. Is data on view number available to users like me?
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
You can see the numbers when you scroll down to the Active Discussions section on the home page of Publicaddress.
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Angela Hart, in reply to
Thanks Hilary, I hadn't twigged to that.
A certain person wants to know what the journos have
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/254212/media,-cameron-slater-agree-on-personal-emails -
Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to
Don’t Maori and Asians have a demographic bulge at the low end – Maori because of poor mortality stats, and high birthrates, and Asians because of the massive student population?
Yes to all the above - though the Asian student population would presumably mostly be here on student visas and therefore not be eligible to vote - though possibly included in the NZ resident population that forms the baseline for assessing non-voting population? But the Asian resident (i.e. non-student) population is also young, due to recent migration patterns.
The Pacific Peoples population is also youth heavy, for the same reasons as Maori - high birthrates, lower life expectancy. -
izogi, in reply to
Also, in case anyone else is as interested in these things, StatsNZ have provided s fascinating summary of the reasons non-voters gave for not voting
On the not-being-enrolled side, has anyone seen any research or reports about whether the prospect of being called up for jury service has any effect?
I'd guess it's probably less significant than general apathy and other reasons, but I've yet to see it referred to.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I'll do my best to convince as many students who can vote to vote next week. It won't be high on their agenda, though, as first week back is usually full of tests (which I should be swotting for instead of doing this). Not optimistic. When actually put upon to tell them why their lives would be improved by swapping National for Labour, it's hard to come up with anything compelling. Of course I'll be suggesting that if they don't like Labour they can vote for parties that Labour would most likely have to negotiate with.
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nzlemming, in reply to
Can we move the discussion on rather than get bogged down in futile, point scoring semantics?
The ugly truth is that this is Ugly Truth's modus operandi
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A young woman at my work said she’s holding a breakfast for her friends on election Saturday morning – and afterwards she’s frog-marching them down to the polling booth to make sure they vote – because a bunch of them have been sounding pretty apathetic about it and she’s sure that they wouldn’t vote unless someone pushes them. She doesn’t care who they vote for, just cares whether they vote or not.
Ben, if you have an email list for them, you could point out to your student friends that they can vote now, already, they don’t have to wait until election Saturday.
As for why their lives would be improved by swapping National for Labour.. if they’re students and want better housing, voting Labour (or anything leftish) will be a vote for a rental Warrant of Fitness. But you could also point out that it’s not actually all about them: we don’t just vote for what we want for ourselves, we vote for what we want for our friends and families and society in general too. I already own a house, but that doesn’t mean I don’t care whether or not buying a house is affordable for other people.
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And reductio ad absurdum is the best coup de grace to that modus operandi. But aegrescit medendo, and optimi natatores saepius submerguntur. So pax melior est quam iustissimum bellum.
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BenWilson, in reply to
But you could also point out that it’s not actually all about them
I could hardly think of a better way to alienate them than to say that, which comes across as a put-down. But don't worry, I'll find a more diplomatic way to say something along those lines.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
It will probably take a bit longer for many of the population to ‘hear’ the message of just how dirty was the two pronged policy of attack politics run out of the PM’s office. Attack through blogs and friends in the media those who are a challenge, while leaving the man at the top untouched.
There were a little over 2 years between the Watergate break-ins and the resignation of Tricky Dick, and all sorts of denials, cover-ups and obstructions of justice in between. How much faster would the Internet make things happen?
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Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to
Yes, good. And it doesn't come across as a put-down, it is a put-down. So I'm glad you'll find a more diplomatic way of saying it! Like "Fair enough, there's nothing in it for you - but might there be anything in there for your mum/brother/grandparents/other relative they like..."?
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nzlemming, in reply to
And reductio ad absurdum is the best coup de grace to that modus operandi. But aegrescit medendo, and optimi natatores saepius submerguntur. So pax melior est quam iustissimum bellum.
Vestri mileage variari
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