Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Citizens

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  • Craig Ranapia,

    and according to Garth McVicar on Morning Report today, other parties will announce Sensible Sentencing Trust-approved policies before polling day

    Um, where's my tequila salt? :) But, seriously, kudos to you for trying to make sense of that interview -- as far as I can tell, if you spliced the DNA of McVicar and Peter Williams you still wouldn't come up with a decent half-wit.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Um, where's my tequila salt? :) But, seriously, kudos to you for trying to make sense of that interview -- as far as I can tell, if you spliced the DNA of McVicar and Peter Williams you still wouldn't come up with a decent half-wit.

    Quite. Williams just sounded batty by the end.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    So it appears that Prebble is just pulling numbers out of his ass, but can anyone help with definitive, up-to-date numbers and any relevant commentary?

    no. but i did enjoy reading the brian easton column in listener where here argued that public service spending relative to GDP is lower now than during the days of the razor gangs.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • Evan Yates,

    Anyway, thanks to Tiki for getting in touch (and sending me a copy of his track!). I have a lot of respect for the way he does things.

    But did you like the track? Praising a muso for his PR skills is like praising a writer for his penmanship. Where is the love? (of the creative content, that is)

    Hamiltron, Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Nov 2006 • 197 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Beard,

    if you spliced the DNA of McVicar and Peter Williams you still wouldn't come up with a decent half-wit.

    I groaned when the interviewees were announced: how could it not have been a trainwreck? You might as well have expected a cat and a dog to have a reasoned, open-minded and courteous discussion.

    Williams just sounded batty by the end.

    I tend far more towards the Howard League end of the spectrum on those issues, but he achieved the impossible: made McVicar seem almost, y'know, sensible by comparison.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1040 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    But did you like the track?

    Yes!

    Praising a muso for his PR skills is like praising a writer for his penmanship.

    No, I mean for the whole way he does his art and owns his own stuff. Jeez, picky ...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    ah, here it is.

    I am looking here only at central government current spending (which excludes social security transfers). We all know National’s Sir Robert Muldoon was a big spender; he outlaid 16.6% of GDP on education, health and the like. Labour’s Roger Douglas and David Caygill cut that back to 16.1%. National’s Richardson-Birch-Peters-English regime cut the figure further to 15.8%. That is what we would expect (although their cuts were not as great as Labour’s).

    However, current Labour Minister of Finance Michael Cullen has kept his spending even lower: 15.6%. Of course, he has actually spent more, because the economy has expanded.

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • slarty,

    So it appears that Prebble is just pulling numbers out of his ass, but can anyone help with definitive, up-to-date numbers and any relevant commentary?

    If it's any consolation, you're not alone in struggling to find stuff.

    Logically you'd think that Treasury should produce something, but it's considered to be too political. The difficulty is how you categorise public and private expenditure for comparative purposes: the classification can be argued to be Politically driven.

    This goes equally for tax revenue figures (e.g. should Britain's National Insurance contributions be counted as tax, given they just go into the general fund?)

    So you have to rely on a "neutral" third party... and then you're into think tanks etc.

    FWIW the sources you quote looked pretty good to me. Otago have done work in this area in the past...

    Since Nov 2006 • 290 posts Report Reply

  • bob daktari,

    Tiki's second single, Now This Is It, from Past Present Future features David Lange You Da Bomb

    Release Date Oct 1 2007

    auckland • Since Dec 2006 • 540 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    If a talk is taped by a media organisation, does the copyright sit with the media or the speaker. Do groups like the Oxford Union have their speakers sign a release that transfers the copyright?

    Or is the "creative input" of turning up and getting the levels right enough to acquire copyright?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Whatever the rational questions to be asked about such a policy, it will play well, especially given that the verdict on one shocking murder case is likely to come down just before polling day.

    I was talking to my father about this in Wellington airport this morning. He and my mother bemoan the complete lack of knowledge that people, who are otherwise well informed on many things, have about parole and its purpose.

    This change will result in two things:

    1. Long effective sentences for some offenders (due to not being eligible for parole).
    2. A less effective parole system (it might be called something different, but it will be similar to parole), which has no incentives at all to hold over the prisoner while they are serving their sentence.

    The headline will get a pile of votes however.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Idiot Savant,

    can anyone help with definitive, up-to-date numbers and any relevant commentary?

    Information on the size of the NZ state is in any Budget; recent figures are here. Core crown expenditure was forecast to be a mere 31.8% in 2008, about the same level it was in 1997 (I can probably dig up some older figures if you want). I can't find total figures (which include the balances sheets of SOEs), but IIRC they're somewhere in the mid 40's.

    International comparisons can be tricky, since you need to make sure you're comparing apples with apples. The OECD should have something somewhere, though.

    Palmerston North • Since Nov 2006 • 1717 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    If a talk is taped by a media organisation, does the copyright sit with the media or the speaker. Do groups like the Oxford Union have their speakers sign a release that transfers the copyright?

    Copyright for such things typically rests with multiple people and organisations.

    Take for example an artwork. The artist paints it, they have copyright. Someone buys it, they have copyright. A photographer takes a photo of it, they have copyright. A book publishes the photo, they have copyright. All four of those people/organisations have copyrights over the version that appears in the book. Copyright of the original artwork however rests with the artist and the owner.

    If TVNZ recorded the speech with their cameras, they have copyright over that recording, though it possibly also rests with David Lange's estate, and the Oxford Union.

    If another organisation recorded it as well, then TVNZ doesn't have rights over that recording, unless they have a piece of paper giving them some sort of exclusive rights.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Evan Yates,

    However, current Labour Minister of Finance Michael Cullen has kept his spending even lower: 15.6%. Of course, he has actually spent more, because the economy has expanded.

    This is where economics does my head in. Did Cullen plan on spending 15.6% of GDP or was his planned spending percentage level based on previous GDP figures which when the economy expanded during the year miraculously became a lower percentage...

    I know that there are always forecasts and budgets for the future, but it always seems that the media talking-head economics "experts" spend the majority of their air time explaining why things didn't happen as they were expected to.

    Hamiltron, Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Nov 2006 • 197 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    You might as well have expected a cat and a dog to have a reasoned, open-minded and courteous discussion.

    In my experience, the cat would have licked its arse then fallen asleep, while the dog gnawed through the mic cord. That would have been infinitely more informative.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    I know that there are always forecasts and budgets for the future, but it always seems that the media talking-head economics "experts" spend the majority of their air time explaining why things didn't happen as they were expected to.

    Yes. Because it really undermines your authority when you have to admit that you're speculating on a guess-timate, doesn't it?

    And speaking of, when is the MSM going to run the bullshit filter over statements like this:

    Helen Clark also attacked National's decision to bring forward announcing its tax policy. National has indicated it will be announcing its tax cuts on Wednesday, two days after the Government's books are opened, instead of its campaign launch this weekend to reassure voters concerned by the impact of the global financial crisis.

    "We have held back on announcing new policy because of what is happening in the international economy. We have been holding back to see where things settle ... but the National Party says they're going to announce theirs, regardless," she said.

    OK, so the international economy is going to magically "settle down" between Wednesday lunchtime and Sunday afternoon? Really?

    And am I the only person who finds it rather rich after months of "show us your policy" taunting of National, that Labour is now trying to paint their own coyness as some exercise in fiscal responsibility? I don't really want to know know stupid these people really think we are, but both Cullen and English have some serious explaining to do. And not much time to do it in.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Che Tibby,

    Did Cullen plan on spending 15.6% of GDP or was his planned spending percentage level based on previous GDP figures

    not sure i could answer that, doubtless kiwiblog and the standard would have obviously divergent views.

    what it indicates to me is the wisdom of the old saying, 'lies lies and damn statistics".

    the back of an envelope • Since Nov 2006 • 2042 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    And just to be fair, I went looking for Labour's Laura Norder policy on the party's campaign website and found this:

    This webpage reflects the policies and actions of Labour in government. Labour’s detailed policy for the next parliamentary term and beyond will be released closer to the election, and this page will be revised at that time.

    Oh.... that's helpful.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    In my experience, the cat would have licked its arse then fallen asleep, while the dog gnawed through the mic cord. That would have been infinitely more informative.

    I LOL'd.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Lyndon Hood,

    The surprising thing is how few offenders this will affect

    Are we all familiar with the number of people currently in prison for murders committed after they served time for an earlier murder?

    I believe it's three.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1115 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Logically you'd think that Treasury should produce something, but it's considered to be too political. The difficulty is how you categorise public and private expenditure for comparative purposes: the classification can be argued to be Politically driven.

    It's hellishly difficult, even within countries. There's a range of publications in Australia that compare states' expenditure on various budget items and I understand it's a real struggle to get comparable data. It's much easier though when you look at specific lines of expenditure compared across nations. Here's an dataset on expenditure on education - at this level of aggregation however, I'm not sure it tells you much other than the changes by country overtime...

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    BTW, I had to rush out after posting this morning, and didn't extend an invitation to tomorrow evening's Media7 recording.

    The topic is Fonterra -- and whether its (ahem) sacred cow status in the media has been foreclosed by the milk scandal. We're looking at shit going into streams and why it's taken five years to become a story.

    Waikato Times editor Bryce Johns is on our panel, as is Bryce Johnson, of Fish and Game New Zealand, and John Hutchings, the senior Fonterra executivewho’s been handling the implementation of the Clean Streams Accord.

    If you can join us early evening tomorrow, click the little envelope thing under my name to the left there and let me know asap.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Are we all familiar with the number of people currently in prison for murders committed after they served time for an earlier murder?

    I believe it's three.

    I remember that some modelling was done in the mid-'90s by the Ministry of Justice in contemplation of Neeson's Degrees of Murder bill - and early version of this shit-storm. The model was, from memory, on a single sheet of paper as the numbers were low... but I didn't think it was that low.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Kyle Matthews,

    Are we all familiar with the number of people currently in prison for murders committed after they served time for an earlier murder?

    I believe it's three.

    The policy apparently is for violent offences with penalties of more than 5 years, 2nd time around.

    This will affect 'about 100' people I was informed this morning, if it was applied retrospectively to people in prison at the moment.

    Since Nov 2006 • 6243 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

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