Voting Local 2010
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Good to see the police taking Auckland voting registration fraud seriously: Super-city voting probe arrests.
Couple of arrests so far and 40 officers working on the case.
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Hmm... I suspect TVone just breached (or tried to?) a suppression order... but in a way subtle enough to not get charged?
On the topic of the above mentioned super-city voting irregularities...
They showed a man being arrested by police but with his head blurred out... but it was obvious, despite the blurring, that the top of the head of the person arrested was a burgundy colour... not a common colour for hair, but somewhat common for turbans?
Then, the reporter gave more details on the story whilst standing next to an election hoarding for three candidates where the candidates were clearly named (and easily identifiable on the news coverage).. one of them wearing a burgundy coloured turban, one a obviously different coloured turban, and a third with no head covering...
Now, of course, that could all be a complete coincidence, and maybe we're not supposed to put 2 and 2 together?
I'd suggest that if they DIDNT attempt to breach that order then they defamed someone?
Unless of course, I'm just being a Paul Henriesque biggot for drawing any conclusions at all?
P.S. all the above is mentioned assuming you are already aware of previous reporting on the subject... where the reports have frequently mentioned "Indians", "Indian sounding names", candidates with "Indian sounding names" and other dog-whistles along similar lines...
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Hmm... I suspect TVone just breached (or tried to?) a suppression order... but in a way subtle enough to not get charged?
As I said on the other thread, I despise myself for agreeing with WhaleOil (but should defer to his superior expertise) but if TVNZ didn't breech the suppression order, they got too cute for words with it. It also seemed that the house "raided" was clearly identifiable.
And just for entertainment value, DPF does the right thing and redacts his initial post (which was posted before the suppression orders were made) and the crowd goes batshit. (Also had problems grasping that Justice Simpson couldn't prevent the chap whose application for name suppression she declined from appealing.)
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If the allegedly fraudulent team wins by a whisker, and the fraud is proven, does the election get rerun?
Conversely, if they get acquitted but meantime the other team has won, would there also be a rerun?
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(deleted due to juicy info that you could spend a merry afternoon trying to retrieve from cache)
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Thought this was amusing, tweeted yesterday by David Slack:
Important message from John Banks and the NZ Herald to Remuera, Parnell, Milford: your cleaner has voted and is about to replicate.
And those voters seem to have been listening, judging by the sudden sharp uptick in votes coming in from traditional C&R strongholds (or so I heard on RNZ this morning).
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Hmm... I suspect TVone just breached (or tried to?) a suppression order... but in a way subtle enough to not get charged?
Tied together with this, the suppression order becomes a bit farcical.
There's going to be an interesting debate about this supression order next week.
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Thought this was amusing, tweeted yesterday by David Slack:
Really? Guess I missed the joke -- and it's a little rich coming from da Devonport ghetto. Back on planet Earth, it looks like both Banks and Brown have very full schedules where they think their natural support lies. Shocking that...
Any-hoo, WTF does "your cleaner is about to replicate" mean anyway? Is the Tyrell Corporation having a 2-for-1 sale?
And those voters seem to have been listening, judging by the sudden sharp uptick in votes coming in from traditional C&R strongholds (or so I heard on RNZ this morning).
An election stats nerd can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there always a "sudden sharp uptick" in the last week of postal voting, and it tends to be pretty evenly distributed? Serious question.
Anyway, I'd have to say it looks like the Brown campaign has had a better get out the vote operation, but it's not particularly endearing to see David trying out a bit of inverse dog-whistling.
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Banks was warning earlier that if present voting patterns continued we would get "a Labour mayor from South Auckland" - thus seemed to me it was more like him doing the whistling, with David helpfully holding up a frequency detector for the rest of us. But I've been wrong a few times before.
By the way this was the story I heard this morning:
A shift in voting patterns could be taking Auckland's mayoral battle to a close finish.
Among the big voting areas, the highest turnout has swung from territory favouring Len Brown to suburbs considered strong for his rival John Banks.
Last week the strongest voting had come from suburbs in Manukau city such as Otara and Papatoetoe.
The latest daily count, however, has seen the biggest surge in the central area of Orakei, seen as core John Banks territory.
Orakei turnout has topped 39%, with the big South Auckland suburbs ranging from 38% in Papatoetoe to 34% in Manurewa.
Overall Auckland turnout is 10% up on the last election and returning officer Dale Ofsoske expects the final rate to be 45% - 50%.
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something to rally da kidz vote in Chch... enjoy
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Among the big voting areas, the highest turnout has swung from territory favouring Len Brown to suburbs considered strong for his rival John Banks.
I guess the question here is whether Orakei will be as strong for Banks as the South Auckland suburbs seem to be for Brown. One of the weekend polls actually had Brown a point ahead in Auckland City, while he's miles ahead in Manukau.
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I guess the question here is whether Orakei will be as strong for Banks as the South Auckland suburbs seem to be for Brown.
And there's the problem: Since we still have this tiresome thing called a secret ballot (and the so-called "exit polls" being waved around have their own methodological credibility issues), we're inevitably making a lot of assumptions.
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And there's the problem: Since we still have this tiresome thing called a secret ballot (and the so-called "exit polls" being waved around have their own methodological credibility issues), we're inevitably making a lot of assumptions.
True. Of course when he made the comment I cited, Banks was also making the assumption that high turnout in South Auckland would likely mean votes for Brown rather than for himself...
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And there's the problem: Since we still have this tiresome thing called a secret ballot (and the so-called "exit polls" being waved around have their own methodological credibility issues), we're inevitably making a lot of assumptions.
The ODT did a poll of voters a couple of weeks ago and gave it major front page coverage.
As a poll of FPP votes in an STV vote for mayor, I took it with about three cups of salt. A useful poll would have got respondants to "put these two/three people in voting order".
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True. Of course when he made the comment I cited, Banks was also making the assumption that high turnout in South Auckland would likely mean votes for Brown rather than for himself...
You're not wrong there, Same -- and I can't figure out why both of them haven't been more visible north of the Harbour Bridge. (And when they have been, for the most part, it's been of questionable benefit. Just stick to the script, and don't make the effort to display any special interest in Sore-specific issues.) If people wonder why the turnout is so crap around here, that's a good place to start. Also, I know one person who said she went to one meeting with those two and made up her mind... to vote for neither. FTW, boys!
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A useful
poll would have got respondants to "put these
two/three people in voting order".I have a feeling that analysing such a poll would be a statistical can of worms. There are N! outcomes of a poll with N candidates, without even considering those voting for less than N.
Determining the error margin on that lot would need a good statistician, and they charge more for their time than journalists.
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I have a feeling that analysing such a poll would be a statistical can of worms. There are N! outcomes of a poll with N candidates, without even considering those voting for less than N.
Yes, but if people gave you accurate answers, and you picked all the candidates with a chance (in Dunedin it would be generous to say three) you'd end up with the right answer. Which is presumably the point of polling - indicating who would win if the election was held that day.
We have an incumbent and two anti-candidates. One of the anti-candidates came out ahead in the poll.
But if the incumbent came out ahead by a small margin, that would only be an accurate result if he picked up a decent amount of 2nd, 3rd etc votes. That's not likely here, as people who put the third candidate first (and others) are much more likely to put the other anti-candidate 2nd.
A simple STV poll would certainly have a better margin of error than a FPP poll which... can't even have a margin of error. It's illogical. Your polling system doesn't relate to your voting system.
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North Sore
Doctor Freud, the detailing on this slip is exquisite. Can you do another one in baby pink?
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When he's done with that he can make a start on this, which frankly mystifies me...
Same
:P
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And another in mauve -- oooh, matching suspender belts! :)
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Returns to sender...
How do these exit polls, I hear about on the telly, work with a postal vote?
Hell, it sounds like they've had enough trouble getting the posties to actually deliver the voting papers... -
Despite myself I am standing for election - not for the publicity - I work for a DHB and have worked in the criminal justice system, but because our Council thinks it is allright to act without accountability. We need a change, I coudl be aprt of that, also we desperately need to respecta dn conserve the environemnt, stop polluting streams, rivers and building over acquifers.
I live in Christchurch and choose to so do. I turned down State Services Commission bribes and have eked out a living here, instead, teaching, being a tutor and social worker and now I want a Council that understands! That knows from experience what middle and lower NZ wants a voice on! I think I can make a difference, I can certainly research, ask questions and listen analytically!
Vote for a conscience in Council, in Christchurch. -
Shouldn't you have posted that 3 weeks ago?
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Appealing to last minute voters is an OK strategy, knowing the kiwi psyche
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I live in Christchurch and choose to so do
Vote Yoda.
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