Hard News: The Midterms
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Russell Brown, in reply to
They may not have been official feeds – at least I was getting 'video unavailable'.
Yeah, the pirate MSNBC one got yanked, but it was easy enough to find another one. It's very lively, but the ads get a bit wearying.
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For telly-watchers, ABC is on TVNZ Duke. They seem to have every talking head on their staff, and then some.
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Ouch. This is painful already! McGrath loses KY-6. And early optimism fading fast in FL :(
USA still deeply divided. Trump will tear us apart - again. -
Neil,
So far some gains by the Dems but no huge push back against Trump. It’s going to be a fairly nasty next few years.
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Stressful as. Think I might paint the house for a few hours and check back in then. Although a Republican win of the House is unlikely from the polling leading in, it's not so unlikely that I'd be shocked.
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Yep, six more years as expected. America is a strange place.
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The Washington Post's graphics give a good idea of what's going on with the House. Dem pickups emerging, but hell, I hope they get there.
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Dems have lost a Senate seat and House struggling to flip seats. My friends in Philly are just about in tears.
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The ugly American dominates the world, and the ugly Republican dominates America. Ugh.
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Some premature pessimism here. Stick around for Texas, California, etc.
Projecting results while people still vote in the same state is a minefield.
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Agreed, House seats starting to flip now. Up to 4 and they need 20-odd.
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11 flips now and looking good for taking the House.
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Several amazing women and representatives of minorities winning races all over the place. Emily's list has been effective. And in Florida a win for a proposition that people with convictions who have served their time can now vote.But very hard to get around the gerrymandering of electoral districts done a few years ago under the Republicans.
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Phew, that worked. Fivethirtyeight puts it at 14:1 for the Democrats taking the house. When I went to paint it was only 5:4. But I think that’s normal as the daylight passes across the country. First blue, then red, then blue again. Funny to think that the probability of winning moves around that much, but probabilities are always based on what we know at the time, and throughout the day projections are overpowered by realities, causing the knowledge situation to literally fluctuate. Just how it works.
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Unfortunately it appears Cruz has held Texistan, but Democrats flipped House seats in Texas, along with their state legislator seats. Cruz may have won in Texas, but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.
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We're watching Al Jazeera's coverage. We only watch their news as well. It's all I can stomach.
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Well Fivethirtyeight just collapsed that to 100% chance that the Dems take the house. ABC has called it too.
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The there-to-give-balance commentariat are denying that there was any blue wave and talking up the GOP winning all the marginal Senate races; ignoring the fact that, with a 9% plus margin to the Democrats, if the US had anything approximating a fair electoral system this would have been a total rout.
So they held their own in a rigged competition, big deal. -
Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.
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Hilary Stace, in reply to
Gillum is a black man from the Democrat left. Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.
Yeah, looks like Beto has pulled through quite a few down-ticket wins.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Funny to think that the probability of winning moves around that much
I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.
And yet the progress total is a near dead-heat. The Florida Senate is literally 50-50 right now.
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linger, in reply to
Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.
Noting, though, that these largely cancel each other out, as a result of other broken aspects of the American "democratic" system: those most vulnerable to climate change in Florida are ipso facto those least likely to remain in their own district, and least likely to be able to vote (cf. the effect of the post-Katrina diaspora).
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BenWilson, in reply to
I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.
Yes, I don't think that kind of probability based prediction is easy to do when information comes in an order that is not random, but instead has a clear and known pattern.
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