Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: The Midterms

Roger M

Mon, 12 Nov 2018 08:03:47 +1300

The way in which the Supreme Court gets framed in such a completely partisan way, as if it's completely normal and acceptable, does my head in.

Justice is supposed to be blind; but in the US it is not, by design, meaning that justice by our understanding is a foreign…

izogi

Sat, 10 Nov 2018 03:52:11 +1300

Right through to which judge hears your case.

I've never understood how it can be considered so normal for people like judges and journalists to register with a political affiliation and then have it so casually referred to all the time as a standard part of talking about who they…

Craig Ranapia

Sat, 10 Nov 2018 02:27:37 +1300

Two thirds – and most of what was up was seats the Dems already held (which is why they “won” the Senate popular vote by 12 million votes). And it wasn’t that many votes in the key races away from being a different result.

And today, if the statutory recount…

tussock

Fri, 09 Nov 2018 19:42:41 +1300

Gillum up for a recount in Florida, as well as a few others, turns out counting all the votes makes things a whole lot closer than only counting the votes in the R leaning districts.

They had to get court orders to force people to count tens of thousands of…

izogi

Fri, 09 Nov 2018 12:53:03 +1300

simply stacking the electoral commission with cronies

On this point, what would be involved in this compared with the USA, given NZ's Electoral Commission's executive is (effectively) appointed by Parliament, rather than by the SSC or a Minister, or any specific individual? It also has some fairly clearly stated objectives…

Kumara Republic

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 21:51:10 +1300

I think the question is, does the US qualify as a democracy at all?

The Dems taking the Congress is just the first step back towards political sanity. Yet there are systemic issues that still need fixing, as the voter suppression-driven margins of error in Georgia & Florida go to show.…

nzlemming

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 20:17:06 +1300

Brian Kemp’s lead over Stacey Abrams narrows amid voting complaints in Georgia governor’s race

Katharine Moody

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 19:20:13 +1300

With those republican governors, ending the gerrymandering in key states isn’t going to be easy.

We've got our very own form of gerrymandering taking place in Canterbury;

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/108441705/Former-PM-accuses-ECan-of-gerrymandering-to-farming-interests?fbclid=IwAR1AolWEkOpx4oCPOdQjdukPlK2Q5nZKeKF9q6-YM_l8hfhNJJsBWy0ynXw

nzlemming

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 18:57:14 +1300

With those republican governors, ending the gerrymandering in key states isn’t going to be easy.

On the other hand, Dems have taken the governor ship in other key states, but they do face a Rep legislature in most cases. I think the significant thing that the Dems need to build…

Rob Stowell

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 10:14:59 +1300

Governors: Kobach and Scott Walker out are great results. Some good new talent. But still a bit flummoxed and sad about a few races. Gillum losing to De Santis in FL especially – and DeWine winning in Ohio. With those republican governors, ending the gerrymandering in key states isn’t going…

Katharine Moody

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 09:51:17 +1300

For any other democracy, it would be a good result for the nation – as it would require negotiation across the two houses. In other words, the kind of checks and balances envisioned by the authors of the Constitution, and the same kind of mechanism that MMP has afforded us…

Dennis Frank

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 09:41:56 +1300

There aren't many on the political right whose opinions I bother to check out. Not easy recalling anyone past George Will capable of incisive insights. Wikipedia: "The Wall Street Journal called him "perhaps the most powerful journalist in America"." He left the Republicans in 2016 due to disgust with Trump.…

Russell Brown

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 09:29:08 +1300

There were structural reasons why the Senate was unlikely to flip, the main one being that half of it was not up for election.
Two thirds – and most of what was up was seats the Dems already held (which is why they "won" the Senate popular vote by 12…

BenWilson

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 08:30:28 +1300
Yes, it does. Periodically it completely overthrows its leadership without violence, by ballot that is open to most of the population. That is the bare minimum requirement to be considered a democracy. But yes, it could be improved enormously. And I don't think it will in any foreseeable future.

Roger M

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 08:02:19 +1300

The greatest democracy in the world?
* Gerrymandered re-districting
* Rampant voter suppression
* Machine voting with no paper trail and often no checks at all.
* Voting system providers, usually owned by politically aligned companies
* Politically controlled and partisan judiciary
* Indirect voting through electoral colleges
* Candidates…

BenWilson

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 07:49:46 +1300
There were structural reasons why the Senate was unlikely to flip, the main one being that half of it was not up for election. But I'm not following what your reservation is. The election followed the poll predictions – it was not a rogue result. The people who make the…

Dennis Frank

Thu, 08 Nov 2018 07:02:22 +1300
I'm reserving judgment on the significance of the swing until final results are declared. You may be right but evidence of a real shift in the electorate would be expected to show up elsewhere too. So far all we have is the smaller shift to the Republicans in the Senate.…

Katharine Moody

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 22:41:29 +1300

We do not have 'birthright citizenship' (Jus soli) in NZ – ours is a Restricted Jus Soli;
New Zealand: Since 1 January 2006, a person born in New Zealand acquires New Zealand citizenship by birth only if at least one parent was a New Zealand citizen or permanent resident (includes…

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 21:03:03 +1300

The House being in Democrat hands is a major power shift in the USA, and it will begin manifesting immediately.
I smell...SUBPOENAS!

BenWilson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 20:33:43 +1300

No discernable trend apart from the swing to Democrats in the house.
It's really quite a large swing, though, however much the annoying coverage on American TV tries to talk it down. Just because it did actually follow what the polls predicted doesn't mean it's not highly significant. The House…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 20:10:39 +1300
Interesting that the primary colours are the exact opposite of NZ: red for the right, blue for the left. I see Bernie Sanders is showing 66% in purple. I assume that means he has abandoned the Democrat flag of convenience he waved when running for the presidency a couple of…

Hilary Stace

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 19:29:16 +1300
The Democrats now have a few months to find a really good Presidential candidate.

Neil

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 19:24:09 +1300

Given how much the voting system is stacked against them these are good results for the Dems and the rest of humanity. The popular vote once again is not reflected in the results but if that was the system Hillary would be president.
Trump isn’t a true reflection of US…

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 19:17:57 +1300
Nunes made it back, but Schiff will now chair the Intelligence Committee

Tom Semmens

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:57:59 +1300
All those "tight" races going to the Republicans? Vote suppression and Gerrymanders work.

Trevor Nicholls

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:53:07 +1300
Given his lack of interest or ability to respect any traditional norms, I wonder what initiatives Trump and McConnell might try to push through an integrity-deficient lame duck Congress majority – and whether those same integrity-deficient Republican congressmen will go along with it.

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:50:02 +1300
Bigotry does not pay, even if you do get to meet the Pope.

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:48:11 +1300
Bwahahaha!

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:42:16 +1300
What amazes me is the Latinos still voting for Republicans, especially the ones from Cuba. How can they not understand that Trump's "birthright citizenship" bullshit is aimed directly at their kids? (Yes, I know he can't do that without a constitutional amendment which he's never going to get now, but…

BenWilson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:10:26 +1300

I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.
Yes, I don't think that kind of probability based prediction is easy to do when information comes in an order that is not random, but instead has a clear and known pattern.

linger

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 18:05:18 +1300
Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.Noting, though, that these largely cancel each other out, as a result of other broken aspects of the American "democratic" system: those most vulnerable to climate change in Florida are ipso facto…

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:56:28 +1300

Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.
And yet the progress total is a near dead-heat. The Florida Senate is literally 50-50 right now.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:55:17 +1300

Funny to think that the probability of winning moves around that much
I think at one point Nate was trying to explain that his model was being too aggressive. Yeah.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:53:49 +1300

but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.
Yeah, looks like Beto has pulled through quite a few down-ticket wins.

Hilary Stace

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:48:30 +1300
Gillum is a black man from the Democrat left. Might be different next time with more people able to vote. Also as climate change starts to drown Florida.

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:18:54 +1300
Gillum has conceded to De Santis in Florida.

Trevor Nicholls

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:10:51 +1300
The there-to-give-balance commentariat are denying that there was any blue wave and talking up the GOP winning all the marginal Senate races; ignoring the fact that, with a 9% plus margin to the Democrats, if the US had anything approximating a fair electoral system this would have been a total…

BenWilson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:04:56 +1300
Well Fivethirtyeight just collapsed that to 100% chance that the Dems take the house. ABC has called it too.

Katharine Moody

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 17:01:22 +1300
We're watching Al Jazeera's coverage. We only watch their news as well. It's all I can stomach.

nzlemming

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 16:55:49 +1300
Unfortunately it appears Cruz has held Texistan, but Democrats flipped House seats in Texas, along with their state legislator seats. Cruz may have won in Texas, but overall Dems did, as they were never supposed to be that close, let alone flipping other seats.

BenWilson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 16:48:59 +1300
Phew, that worked. Fivethirtyeight puts it at 14:1 for the Democrats taking the house. When I went to paint it was only 5:4. But I think that’s normal as the daylight passes across the country. First blue, then red, then blue again. Funny to think that the probability of winning…

Hilary Stace

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 16:34:52 +1300
Several amazing women and representatives of minorities winning races all over the place. Emily's list has been effective. And in Florida a win for a proposition that people with convictions who have served their time can now vote.But very hard to get around the gerrymandering of electoral districts done a…

Luke Williamson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 16:22:00 +1300
11 flips now and looking good for taking the House.

Luke Williamson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:55:54 +1300
Agreed, House seats starting to flip now. Up to 4 and they need 20-odd.

simon g

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:52:16 +1300

Some premature pessimism here. Stick around for Texas, California, etc.
Projecting results while people still vote in the same state is a minefield.

Trevor Nicholls

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:51:32 +1300
The ugly American dominates the world, and the ugly Republican dominates America. Ugh.

Luke Williamson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:48:44 +1300
Dems have lost a Senate seat and House struggling to flip seats. My friends in Philly are just about in tears.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:39:29 +1300
The Washington Post's graphics give a good idea of what's going on with the House. Dem pickups emerging, but hell, I hope they get there.

Zach Bagnall

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:37:29 +1300
Yep, six more years as expected. America is a strange place.

BenWilson

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:30:26 +1300
Stressful as. Think I might paint the house for a few hours and check back in then. Although a Republican win of the House is unlikely from the polling leading in, it's not so unlikely that I'd be shocked.

Neil

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:17:57 +1300
So far some gains by the Dems but no huge push back against Trump. It’s going to be a fairly nasty next few years.

Rob Stowell

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 15:00:05 +1300

Ouch. This is painful already! McGrath loses KY-6. And early optimism fading fast in FL :(
USA still deeply divided. Trump will tear us apart – again.

simon g

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 14:15:42 +1300
For telly-watchers, ABC is on TVNZ Duke. They seem to have every talking head on their staff, and then some.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 13:56:17 +1300

They may not have been official feeds – at least I was getting 'video unavailable'.
Yeah, the pirate MSNBC one got yanked, but it was easy enough to find another one. It's very lively, but the ads get a bit wearying.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 13:54:44 +1300

The Washington Post live stream. Interesting seeing how newspapers, with their smaller budgets and lack of broadcast experience, do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07lFzSAfNaI

mark taslov

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 13:51:55 +1300

They may not have been official feeds – at least I was getting 'video unavailable'.
MSNBC live stream on YouTube.
ABC News live stream on YouTube.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 13:10:48 +1300

The MSNBC live stream on YouTube.
And the ABC News live stream on YouTube.

Neil

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 12:17:18 +1300
I’ve already seen from the usual suspects comment along the lines of – if there’s one thing worse than a Dem defeat it’s a Dem victory.

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 12:15:31 +1300
Widespread reports of voting machine failure in New York. Probably not evil, given that it's New York, just fucking hopeless.

Bart Janssen

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:50:22 +1300
Damn The Guardian results page is pretty.

Idiot Savant

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:28:18 +1300
It can be done by referendum. It would be interesting to see some polling on whether people would support it.

Bart Janssen

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:28:16 +1300

Well, National just had 9 years in power and they did precisely none of the above.
Except for when they did Prisoner voting

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:27:16 +1300
First exit poll finds healthcare and Trump disapproval motivating voters.

Hilary Stace

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:26:03 +1300
By the way the recent Labour Party conference voted that the party will now have a policy of lowering the voting age to 16. Unfortunately, that requires support from 75% of MPs to implement. It is about 45 years ago since the Kirk Government lowered it from 21 to 18.…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:22:13 +1300

Yes Gov. Gerry was a different thing but it was the same idea – that so long as you achieved power it didn't matter what you did. Voter suppression is the same logic.
Still, I think the essential difference is that here, our attitude is "People can vote unless" and…

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:03:12 +1300

The whole American ingrained attitude to voting just… astounds and saddens me. We’re the greatest democracy in the world! But generally we do not give a shit about voter suppression!
The NYT had a story recently in which certain academics and economists were happy to say that lots of people…

Idiot Savant

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 11:03:05 +1300
What would stop a National government led by a candidate selected from their Auckland Tea Party faction (Judith, anyone?) and infected by hard right GOP inspired radicals hell bent on trashing our democracy simply stacking the electoral commission with cronies, introducing onerous voter ID rules, then (on the advice of…

Nick Russell

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 10:40:19 +1300
Well, National just had 9 years in power and they did precisely none of the above. And as far as I recall, they didn't do any of it during the 9 years Jim Bolger/Jenny Shipley lead the party either. Hell, they wouldn't even abolish the Maori seats despite promising to…

Tom Semmens

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 10:31:50 +1300

How well entrenched though is our democracy from the sort of voter suppression shenanagins we are seeing in the USA?
What would stop a National government led by a candidate selected from their Auckland Tea Party faction (Judith, anyone?) and infected by hard right GOP inspired radicals hell bent on…

Alice Ronald

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 10:29:47 +1300

I don't think you've lost proportion. The situation with Georgia and Brian Kemp does my head in, in particular. Sorry, the guy responsible for ensuring elections is also running in the election and has the power to disenfranchise voters? How? Why? What?
Give me my citrus elections golem and EasyVote…

Stephen R

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 10:28:07 +1300

Sorry. I have lost all sense of proportion.
I'm not sure you have. I think the US has. I don't understand their attitude to voting suppression as anything other than "we won't win if we play fair, so we'll cheat, and we don't care who knows it"

Emma Hart

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 10:08:16 +1300

It is a very interesting history, Governor Elbridge Gerry saw a way of manipulating a system designed to be fair and ran with it.
Governer Elbridge Redistricting, Bart.
Still, I think the essential difference is that here, our attitude is "People can vote unless" and in the States it's "people…

Bart Janssen

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:56:25 +1300

But generally we do not give a shit about voter suppression!
It is a very interesting history, Governor Elbridge Gerry saw a way of manipulating a system designed to be fair and ran with it. What followed was a sequence of methods to manipulate voting which everyone seemed to think…

Dennis Frank

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:37:38 +1300

"Last year, 42% of Americans, on average, identified as political independents, erasing the decline to 39% seen in the 2016 presidential election year. Independent identification is just one percentage point below the high of 43% in 2014. Twenty-nine percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats and 27% as Republicans."
https://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/americans-identification-independents-back-2017.aspx…

Emma Hart

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:33:06 +1300

The whole American ingrained attitude to voting just... astounds and saddens me. We're the greatest democracy in the world! But generally we do not give a shit about voter suppression!
The guy who makes one of the podcasts I listen to is off to a reservation this week as an…

Ian Dalziel

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:28:04 +1300

....and perhaps, later on, some Fox News for the lols.
That's one sick comedy channel!...and very bitter and hollow laughs
– let's not forget they had the last 'laugh' last election!

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:10:25 +1300

It hasn't taken long for voting systems to start failing.
The NYT cites problems in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Arizona. And that's not even counting polling places where there are simply far too few machines to meet predictable demand.

Paul Campbell

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 09:03:25 +1300
Yes everyone in this house voted weeks ago (except me, I'm not a citizen)

Russell Brown

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 08:49:50 +1300

A fairly chilling reminder of a key battle for representation currently before the courts – the White House's plan to add a citizenship question to America 2020 Census:
If the Trump administration wins its fight to add a citizenship question to the census, it will clear the way for Republicans…

Public Address

Wed, 07 Nov 2018 08:49:49 +1300

Discussion from blog post.