What Happens: The Sequel!
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So 1pm ticked over and after six pages and 100+ posts I figured we needed a fresh new mid-terms election thread now the results are poised to come in. Feel free to keep on arguing in the original, and we'll watch the news break here. Love your work.
258 Responses
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heh, first post...
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Hmmm ...
Exit polls have a narrowly Democrat Senate:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0611/S00127.htm
But we know what happens to exit polls ...
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Early exits:
Casey 61 - Santorum 38
Cardin 51 - Steele 48
McCaskill 53 - Talent 46
Webb 55 - Allen 45
Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
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I wish it were otherwise, but I can't see the Dems getting past a tied Senate. The exit polls DO look very nice, though.
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All the exit polls you can eat at http://www.pollster.com/
tim
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Webb 55 - Allen 45
Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
Don't forget about the good that might be done getting rid of Allen. I took great pleasure in voting against that piece of filth.
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Danyl: well, I'll certainly be pleased to see "man on dog" Santorum go...
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Maybe I'm too hard on the Dems - even if all they accomplish is removing Rick Santorum from office they'll still have made the world a better place . . .
Yeah unfortunately it looks a lot like a "lesser of two evils" thing.
I'm not overly optimistic of a Democratic House, Senate or even President being able to deal with Iraq properly, for example. Sure, it's an impossible situation, but they have to take their share of the blame for just letting it happen.
If they have the balls to prosecute everyone that needs to be prosecuted, and basically just not be evil, then I guess that's a start.
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Be warned, having posted early I intend to post often.
Interrestingly, that was a take of a Chicago Democrat urging his supporters to lift the turnout figures (Daley Senior). How times have changed.
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Stories and links from the voting booths at http://www.slate.com/id/2153237 including
Reports of busted machines from everywhere ... a bomb threat that closes a polling place ... reports of Democrats harassing Republicans in Ohio. In Michigan, the GOP is suing Democratic poll watchers for speaking to voters. And in Colorado, Latino voters are allegedly being summarily informed that, as Latinos, they are ineligible to vote at all. In Arizona, Hispanic voters are allegedly being harassed at gunpoint.
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NY Times also has excellent actual result coverage, with maps, graphs 'n all.
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I'm wondering what the overall effect of the election will be on the world economy, since that's where things will really impact on me personally.
Predictions for a Dem majority?
It seems from my (admittedly vastly ignorant) point of view that presidents from one party contending with Houses and Senates of the other party result in a stasis of policy that tends to create a positive economic environment, at least whith everything else being equal.
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By the way, do exit polls include all the advance voting that has been taking place for a couple of weeks now?
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"Reports of busted machines from everywhere ... a bomb threat that closes a polling place ... reports of Democrats harassing Republicans in Ohio. In Michigan, the GOP is suing Democratic poll watchers for speaking to voters. And in Colorado, Latino voters are allegedly being summarily informed that, as Latinos, they are ineligible to vote at all. In Arizona, Hispanic voters are allegedly being harassed at gunpoint."
Leaving out the allegedly bit, isn't this very similar to what the US observers criticised the Nicaraguan election for (not these exact acts, obviously)
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By the way, do exit polls include all the advance voting that has been taking place for a couple of weeks now?
No, they dont.
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James thanks. So exit polls would have to be considered very crockish given the high levels of early voting.
Next question, do early votes get counted *before* polls close or do we have to wait for a while before those come through?
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Exit poll FAQ: http://www.exit-poll.net/faq.html
But I'm really rather glad we don't have them for NZ elections as we're small enough to get a first actual count into circulation comparitively early.
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From the above link: How do absentee votes affect projections?
In a number of states significant numbers of voters cast their ballots before Election Day. They either cast an absentee ballot or they vote at precincts set-up for voters in the weeks leading up to the election. These absentee/early voters cannot be included in the Election Day. Instead, they are interviewed by telephone shortly before the election. They are asked the same questions as voters interviewed in the exit polls. In some states, absentee voters will be sampled by telephone their results will be combined with those of Election Day voters.tim
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I think the best outcome would be more accountability, better standard of debate and the end of K street and personality politics.
Fingers crossed -
Tim:
This is from the Blog at Pollster.com:
Something else to remember: One of the things the network analysts are doing right now is comparing the exit poll results with averages of preelection polls -- averages not unlike those we have posted here on Pollster.com. If the exit poll result in a state looks out of line with the preelection result, they will not call the election even if the exit poll lead looks statistically significant. So if you see a "big" lead in a leaked exit poll, but the networks don't call that state when the polls close, you can assume that they are waiting to see hard data to confirm the exit poll result.
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I'm interested in seeing if Greg Palasts dire predictions are borne out.....
http://www.gregpalast.com/how-they-stole-the-mid-term-election#more-1530 -
Tim, quite right about the quick counting here. I believe at the last elections early ballots were counted in a sealed room prior to polls closing and then the result released whne the polls closed. As each polling station finishes the preliminary count these results are released straight away.
It *does* tend to mean that results small stations come through early and larger urban ones with lots of votes to count come in later, which can make for some interesting calls during the process. I remember one jorno calling an election for Winston Peters on the basis of the result of a about 1 polling station.
All that said, it takes much longer for the official count to take place, but I for one am very glad we have that period of scrutiny.
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Thanks Paul.
Lee, I'm afraid to say that the day personality politcs ends will be the day it stops appealing to the voters (however much they claim otherwise) and that's not likely to be soon. The end of K Street? What... the "checks and balances" of the system aren't those in the bank account..?
tim
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Tim, yup fair call, I was just ruminating about a nicer world
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