Polity by Rob Salmond

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Polity: Catch you later

9 Responses

  • mark taslov,

    Congratulations on your new position and on your work with Justin Lester Rob. Though I’ve seldom agreed with you, your installments have made for compelling and thought provoking reading. Regardless of remuneration, I sense a positive election result is incentive enough for you and I respect that. Keep up the great work!

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report

  • David Haywood,

    Very best of luck with your new gig, Rob! And thank you for all your debate-engendering posts on Public Address.

    Dunsandel • Since Nov 2006 • 1156 posts Report

  • andin,

    another nail in the coffin

    Yep we’re onto the funeral service and burial part now.
    But dont let that put you off ;-)

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1891 posts Report

  • mpledger,

    Part of the explanation could be that lesser crimes are quicker to adjudicate for parole.

    And lesser sentences are more likely to have only a one or two -shot go at parole whereas a person convicted of murder, who is given, 20 years with 10 years non-parole could have up to 10 goes in front of the parole board.

    If you suppose that those with a conviction will get parolled rather than serve the full time then...
    the murderer above has a 1/10 chance of getting parole on facing the judge but it takes 120 minutes to go through all his jail and conviction history, classes undertaken, previous parole hearings, victim impact report, support plan for his release, etc.
    Whereas, a young, first-time thief has a 1/2 chance of getting parole on facing the judge, his parents are in the courtroom and it takes 30 minutes to go through the history and support plan.

    So all the low chance, slow parole hearings resolve towards the middle/end of a period.


    And if the circled 0.63 (roughly) chance is the average probability of parole, it would mean that the majority of paroles are resolved at the start of the day or period. It would mean that the parole hearings that resolve later are very different to the typical parole hearing.

    I'm assuming this is American data so I wouldn't be surprised if some screwy things happen in courts and with judges...

    Since Oct 2012 • 97 posts Report

  • David Hood, in reply to mpledger,

    I’m assuming this is American data

    It is Israeli data.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report

  • Rochelle Wilson,

    I think it takes some courage to commit one's ideas on to this Public Address site.
    Responses to essay contributions and comments can be very acerbic or even contemptuous.So well done, and good luck.

    Kapiti • Since Jul 2007 • 17 posts Report

  • Geoff Lealand,

    Best wishes for the new job, Rob. You have my support.

    Screen & Media Studies, U… • Since Oct 2007 • 2562 posts Report

  • mark taslov,

    So Amy accepted their apology? I still think it’s way too soon – unless the think tank is trying to send rape victims a coded message – then they’ve just gotta harden up.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report

  • mark taslov,

    Labour MP Poto Williams has moved to smooth over her differences with potential Labour candidate Willie Jackson, saying she believes his apology was genuine.

    Great and all but did Amy accept their apology? Or is she too far down the list? Who was it that they humiliated on air? Was it Poto Williams? Alison Mau? Or doesn’t it really matter any more? As long as someone in the party accepts an apology from someone else in the party?

    Just some questions for the lads to swill over in the gentlemen's club.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report

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