Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?

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  • David Bulog,

    TV3 Reid Research poll *6pm tonight* might show a new late swing**- stay tuned

    Since Aug 2017 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell, in reply to David Bulog,

    Nope.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 440 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    Do we know if CB changed their "modelling"? I know they've said they didn't change their "sampling" before their last poll. But if they kept to the same electorate model then there really has been a big shift since the tax bullshit hit the fan, and Reid picked it up sooner than CB.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 293 posts Report Reply

  • David Bulog, in reply to John Farrell,

    If TV3 Reid Research Poll sampling is correct
    What we are seeing is a new late swing to the minor parties -Greens up 2.2% and NZF up 1.1%
    decline for National since last week poll -1.1% , slighter decline for Labour – 0.5%
    Greens and NZF are getting some votes back from the major parties.
    1.4% difference between National and Labour and Green.

    Since Aug 2017 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    Differences of less than the margin of error should not be called a swing.
    Basically, we won’t know the result until after Saturday (and that’s all that poll says). Time to stop speculating and start voting if you haven’t already done so.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1751 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Politik say they have seen National's internal polling which indicate a 1% lead to the left bloc and softening of the National vote.

    My bones tell me the National scare campaign worked right up until Bill English jumped the shark on the whole slaughter the dairy herd thing and the media started calling National's advertisments straight out lies.

    I am going to make my call - A Labour-Green 62 seat win on the back of a late swing to Labour.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2136 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    I am going to make my call - A Labour-Green 62 seat win on the back of a late swing to Labour.

    Here's hoping.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 293 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    Interesting, Tom. My pick - Labour/Greens 62 seats, National 56, Maori Party 2. No seats for anyone else.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 440 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank,

    If the skewing effect on the polls since advance voting started is real, highly-motivated voters who are quick off the mark will already have been tallied prior to the polls closing tomorrow and the first media reports thereafter will be of their tally.

    If they mostly want a change of govt we'll see evidence of a swing to Labour/Greens as these first counts are reported - but later in the evening it'll even up (due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow). If this effect happens, early electorate results may contradict recent polling to a surprising extent, but then things will even out later in the evening...

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 153 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    I'd say there's almost no chance of Labour/Greens having 62 on election night, and even L/G plus Maori Party is a long shot.

    But the real concern is that there will be negotiations based on incomplete numbers, and specials will change the picture (i.e. give the only correct picture) after the narrative has been established. It could be the 2017 version of 2005 "the rural booths came in and National had won, only to be robbed by the big urban booths at midnight". Obviously it's idiotic to pretend that votes have different values depending on when they are counted, so ... thank goodness there are no idiots in our media, and they all totally understand MMP (*cough* Hosking ...).

    On the plus side, the prospect of National celebrating a "win" and then specials taking away a seat or putting the Greens over 5% would be one to savour ...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1213 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    (due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow).

    That’s me, and my vote is going to be desided by the flip of a coin, as it my right. A coin only has two sides. So that makes me an oscillating voter with a margin of error plus or minus 50 percent. But I might go for best of three if I don’t like the first result.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3865 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    due to most traditionalists voting tomorrow

    I wouldn't call myself a traditionalist and I was inclined to vote early. The reason I've held off voting until Saturday is because I like being able to drill down in the ElectionNZ site, right down to my local voting booth. For the last two elections it's been overwhelmingly Green with Labour 2nd and the Nats hardly count. That makes you feel pretty good about your neighbours.

    Had I voted early I would be counted in one of the bigger voting places, rather than the nice little village where I live.

    Two ticks Green.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1326 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Bernard Hickey reckons the polls might be wrong.

    Currently, the two major published polls put National ahead of Labour by eight or nine percentage points, but those polls have assumed that turnout rates among the young will be the same as for previous elections.
    ...
    If the young have voted at greater rates, that would mean the polls are likely to have underestimated the Labour and Green votes because they assume the same turnout rates for various demographics when they do their sampling and re-weighting of results. Polls have shown young voters are more likely to vote Labour and Green.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19413 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Alfie,

    I'd have voted early but, after seeing how many are doing so and the discussions about outdated electoral laws, I've held off. It's occurred that this might be the final election where I get an opportunity to vote on a day when nobody's allowed to scream at me about how I should vote.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1104 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    If it's possible to vote in person I usually do, but it's a bit of a hassle to get to the High Commission at present.

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1011 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Kia ora koutou.

    Just a reminder that the provisions of the Electoral Act are about to come into force, till 7pm tomorrow, so if you could please confine yourselves to electoral and poll geekery and no indulge in anything referring to the parties contesting the election, still less what you think of them, that would be much appreciated.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22227 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    That’s not quite how it’s supposed to work. The previous day's advance votes are not tallied until 2pm on polling day – but the actual results are not scrutinized and therefore are not released until after close of polls. Special votes (including some proportion of the advance votes) take even longer to be assigned to their correct electorate – and may be decisive this time.
    [Oh bugger, it’s already Saturday NZ time. Check: no party named, no recommendation made <=> post unproblematic I hope]

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1751 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Just a reminder that the provisions of the Electoral Act are about to come into force, till 7pm tomorrow

    Dont even prod it with a stick, Its definitely still breathing :-)

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3865 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank, in reply to linger,

    The previous day's advance votes are not tallied until 2pm on polling day – but the actual results are not scrutinized and therefore are not released until after close of polls.

    Okay, but I was commenting on the basis of seeing a couple of political reporters telling us that the results from advance voting are likely to be reported soon after 7pm. One would think they'd have inside knowledge to justify that expectation.

    Also, if I were running the process efficiently I'd expect my counting team to report their tallies at the end of each voting day of the advance voting period, so the tallies get regularly updated, so as to enable today's count to be expedited. I grant our civil service haven't become famous for having a culture of efficiency. Anyway, we'll see early evening if the advance voting tallies get reported promptly.

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 153 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    Absolutely not. As of 2pm today we will know (roughly) how many advance votes have been cast but we will not know anything about how they have been cast. Processing the advance votes does start early – but given the number, will not be completed before the final day’s votes are also in. Far more important than any perceived efficiency is ensuring no influence on the continuing voting process.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1751 posts Report Reply

  • FletcherB, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    Also, if I were running the process efficiently I’d expect my counting team to report their tallies at the end of each voting day

    If you do that, the tallies could get leaked and influence people who haven't voted yet...

    I don't like that idea... I don't even like the idea of countries with multiple time zones (Aus, USA, Canada) reporting results from earlier time zones before polls have closed in later ones...

    West Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 864 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7480 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    Some problems with Australia's postal yes/no 'referendum'...

    The unfailingly excellent David Rowe.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4523 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    Bugger!
    (provisionally....)

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7480 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Polling averages made it Winston's choice, almost certainly so, and late polls were pretty much on the spot for what he'd be looking at for a choice, give or take the specials (go go magic late enrolment swing!).

    Well done the pollsters again. Good old math and sampling doing it's thing again, second-guessing the people who understand the math about as useful as betting against the met-service these days it seems.

    538 says don't trust the polls just because they're right a couple times, because the margin of error is real and undecided voters really do swing hard very late, but yeah, they were right again, eh. :)

    Since Nov 2006 • 587 posts Report Reply

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