Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?

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  • mark taslov, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    Especially once you start breaking down the figures between 1st-generationers, and 1.5ers and 2nd-generationers.

    I couldn’t find reference to this in the article, and a cursory scan of the research (which was – to be fair – dealing with an evenly split sample of Koreans/Chinese, rather than the Chinese vote specifically) didn’t reveal much in terms of generational issues, but I’m inclined to agree with you that therein lie major differences. Contrary to Steven Young's quote in Keith’s piece:

    Labour’s philosophy has more appeal to the mainland Chinese.”

    Labour’s more socialist platform is relatively foreign compared to National’s/CCP’s low tax, survival of the fittest philosophy – to first generation mainland Chinese.

    Having said that Huo could start by looking at the messaging of his own party for answers, perhaps.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to mark taslov,

    Labour’s more socialist platform is relatively foreign compared to National’s/CCP’s low tax, survival of the fittest philosophy – to first generation mainland Chinese.

    That poll surprised me. My first thought was it's a real estate investment thing.

    This election seems to me to be ending up to be a referendum on 'property speculation is okay' versus 'property speculation is not okay'.

    Housing seems to be the defining issue.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    TV3 poll out tonight. Patrick Gower doing his usual hype (rventilating).

    I'll be shocked if I'm not shocked.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to simon g,

    TV3 poll out tonight

    I predict fear will win over hope. Hope I'm wrong :-)

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank,

    Well, so much for the recent polls showing Labour ahead! If Reid Research polled correctly, what explains National ten points ahead of Labour? Both Gower & Corin Dann explained it as volatility. If the swing-voters really are just going which way the political wind is blowing on the day, there's no zeitgeist.

    Both parties ought to conclude from this that a king-hit in the last few days is required to trigger a swing-voter stampede in the right direction. Although the effectiveness of that tactic will be in inverse proportion to the numbers voting earlier than the 23rd.

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Herald latest:

    After two decades of MMP, in a basic comprehension test young people beat old people by 16%.

    I think what we really need is for the Communist Party to get the most votes, so a large chunk of the population can suddenly clamour for other parties to start liking Communism too, because Logic. Or something.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    The TV3 poll results were presented in a way designed to give TV3 the biggest possible headline. Presumably on discovering there was insufficient movement from their last poll to justify an hysterical headline, the numbers were "re-worked" to give a hysterical headline - namely, the undecided vote was excluded.

    Paddy could then engage in the worst sort of manipulative hyper-ventilating faux-journalism and TV3 got a nice ratings bump.

    God forbid a story that pointed out the solidity of the National vote, the size of the undecided vote, and the fluidity of the change vote, you know, a headline that might give the voter food for thought (oh, the horror!).

    God help me but to agree with Matthew Hooton, but this election the determination of a tiny group of unelected and self-appointed media opinion jocks to set the agenda (tax! Tax! Oh my God, TAX!) and decide the outcome has shocked me. Sure, it has been much more to Jacinda's benefit than National this time round. But we need to seriously reform our media landscape. We can't have a tiny coterie of people actually thinking they have a right to hijack our democratic process and manipulate the news to suit the needs of their networks and their personal opinions. It has to stop.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Oh and talking about having to stop, I think it is outrageous polls are still being released AFTER VOTING HAS STARTED!!!!

    It would be a very simple law change to ban them from the day advance voting opens.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    we need to seriously reform our media landscape

    I've felt much the same during the past half-century but there are structural problems that explain why such reform never happens. Primarily the historical fact that private media emerge from an older & more embedded capitalist culture than public media.

    Then there's the reluctance of progressive folks to work in unison - as illustrated by the zero-sum game played against each other by Labour & Greens the past twenty years. When the Greens flagged they'd not stand a candidate in Ohariu to help Labour oust Dunne, Labour failed to reciprocate. They could have taken note of the large electorate vote for James Shaw last time & stood aside to ensure themselves a coalition partner. But no, Labour politicos are too mean-spirited to collaborate.

    Angst about the powers that be using the old divide & rule strategy deployed by empires for millennia seems pointless when the people are so keen to divide amongst themselves all the time anyway.

    I see Labour are now touting a public service tv operation run out of RNZ (instead of transforming TVNZ back into a public broadcaster). If they chartered it to act in the public interest, could be a goer...

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Gavin White,

    The only time you see legitimate electorate polls these days is in seats like Ohariu, which (until recently) could affect the nationwide result.

    I'm probably very wrong about this and there are no polls since before Dunne withdrew, but from what I'm seeing in Ohariu I'm getting a vague sense that Jessica Hammond Doube could make a good show towards winning it for TOP. That would be a significant upset nationally if it happened.

    But I think Greg O'Connor went into it with the expectation of cruising through as being the obvious candidate for getting rid of Dunne in an environment wanting change. Suddenly that's turned on its head and he's having to compete with his vote being split by a newly-injected Green candidate on one side who collected 2700 electorate votes last time simply by being there for the Party vote, and a very charismatic TOP candidate on the other side who's now accused him of trying to convince her to withdraw so he can win. I watched him at a candidate meeting last night and just seemed out of sorts for much of the time, like he never prepared for such diverse competition.

    Probably either he or Hudson will win it, but there might be enough people around Ohariu who are fed up enough with Hudson's sudden change of attitude in trying to win (thinking he's done very little for them as their local Nat list MP until now anyway), and not really liking O'Connor anyway, that they'd seriously consider electing someone else. Really she only needs to pull 1/3 of what would have been O'Connor's support and 1/3 of what would have been Hudson's support, and she has a chance.

    Anyway, I'm just throwing that out there. :)

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1141 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    So we learned on tonight's news that yesterday's poll showed that the 3 most important priorities for the sampled voters were: health, education and the environment. All issues that you would think favour the left. Very strange that this same poll gave National 47% of their support, wouldn't you think?

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    That's why we don't have government by referendum. People would vote for better health, education and the environment, and not the taxes to fund them. That's what they say in response to polls, and that's what we would get (i.e. broke American states).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to simon g,

    Very strange that this same poll gave National 47% of their support, wouldn’t you think?

    Nah, further evidence that policy is not the primary factor in people's voting choice. Also random error and unknown systematic error.

    i.e. broke American states

    Also very much not broke Switzerland.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    So we learned on tonight's news that yesterday's poll showed that the 3 most important priorities for the sampled voters were: health, education and the environment. All issues that you would think favour the left. Very strange that this same poll gave National 47% of their support, wouldn't you think?

    This result? http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/newshub-poll-new-zealand-s-top-election-concerns.html

    It says they asked people to rank important issues, but it's not clear (to me) how those rankings were converted to percentages... which add to exactly 100% (including 2% don't know).

    Whatever the method behind the numbers, I'm not convinced it's out of place. Is it so unreasonable to think that some people who identify with voting National might also introspectively consider the environment or health or housing to be really important to them? Maybe those are just the concerns everyone's thinking about, but some might just be more inclined to believe National's narrative about how best to approach them over the alternatives.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1141 posts Report Reply

  • David Bulog,

    Seriously question the Reid Research poll—I think the area that troubles me is the internet percentage—that is an area that can be targeted !!! –100% landline polling is safer. TV1s poll will be interesting tomorrow.

    Since Aug 2017 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to izogi,

    This result?

    Yes. Somehow between screen and brain and keyboard housing became switched with education. I don't think it changes the point I was making though; health, housing and the environment is still a good combination for the left.
    If you're somebody who is concerned about how the country has been coping with those three issues, why vote for more of the same? Because the right wing is not offering any real changes, their story is we've been managing pretty well, don't take the risk of a Labour/Green government.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • David Bulog,

    Tonights Colmar Brunton poll is the one to watch. Reid Research poll 25% internet panel -possible sampling error!!. Lets see at 6pm.

    Since Aug 2017 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    If you're somebody who is concerned about how the country has been coping with those three issues, why vote for more of the same?

    I can't look into people's heads and there could be a million individual reasons, but my simplistic guess would be that just because someone might think there's a problem somewhere doesn't necessarily mean they might think a change of government wouldn't make things worse than the status quo. Or perhaps they don't think that National's been a stagnant do-nothing government in the same way that some others do, and they perceive solutions to those problems will be here soon.

    Not everyone votes for National when they prioritise good economic management, either. Possibly not everyone thinks National make good and competent economic managers.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1141 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to izogi,

    The percentages are just for the first-ranked issue for each respondent, hence the 100% total. That's a very blunt-instrument metric, because of course for most respondents many of the other listed issues would also have been "important", and in some cases combinations of second- and third-ranked issues might actually have outweighed the first-ranked response.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1940 posts Report Reply

  • David Bulog, in reply to linger,

    Reid Research poll *reputation on line tonight* --- stay tuned for Colmar Brunton poll at 6pm TV One.

    Since Aug 2017 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    Well the disparities in these polls are unnerving...

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

  • stephen walker,

    nagano • Since Nov 2006 • 645 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank,

    Yes it does rather incline one to doubt the methodology used by polling companies. Corin Dann commented that Colmar Brunton is being consistent in putting Labour ahead three polls in a row. The margin in tonight's is four points - greater than the margin of error.

    Yet the National lead of ten points in the TV3 poll the other day was also greater than the margin of error! We're supposed to have confidence that both represent political reality, while they contradict each other. I did pass exams in statistics at the University of Auckland, but that was 48 years ago and my perception of the discipline as voodoo science hasn't changed since. Any reader who takes it seriously is welcome to explain why, if they reckon I'm wrong; I won't bother arguing! Interpretation of scientific results is inherently subjective - despite most scientists being addicted to their denial of this fact.

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    Every polling company has to decide how representative their sample is of the wider electorate. This is usually done with a few questions where the responses can be tested against known big statistics - race, gender, age, etc. Then they have to make assumptions as to how likely various subgroups in their sample/in the wider electorate are to actually vote, etc, etc. The dark arts of opinion pollsters. What we've got here is probably not due to a volatile electorate so much as it is the result of a big difference in the polling models of the two companies. And we won't know which one was right until election day (and even then we can't be certain!)

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 324 posts Report Reply

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