Jack I said at the outset that I don't belong here.
If you think that policy was not a big factor in the routing of the left, then just say that.
The odd thing is that by my accounting, National’s share of the total available vote dropped.
Warning: extreme geekdom ahead…
In 2006 the potential voting population (i.e. NZ resident aged 18+) was 2,974,272.
In 2013 it was 3,198,495 (Source: StatsNZ).
If we average the population growth across the 7 years, we get a 2011 potential voting population of 3,134,431. If we assume population growth continued at the same rate, we get a 2014 potential voting population of 3,230,527.
(I know population doesn’t increase linearly like that, but it’s the best I can do for now).
In 2012, the prison population was 10,160. I’m going to assume that population didn’t change much, and apply it to both 2011 and 2014.
There were also overseas voters. I’m not going to even attempt to estimate how many eligible overseas voters – too hard – so I’m just going to limit that population to those who actually voted: 21,496 in 2011. Again, I’m going to assume the same number for 2014 until the real number becomes available.
Subtracting the prison population, and adding the overseas voters, that gives potential voting populations of 3,145,767 in 2011, and 3,241,863 in 2014.
In 2011 National got 1,058,636 votes, or 33.7% of the available vote. In 2014 it got 1,010,464 votes, or 31.2% of the the available vote.
I’d call that a drop in support, not a rise.
The percentage of potential voters not voting rose – from 32.9% to 34.8%. I don’t yet know what part of the 2014 non-voters were enrolled vs non-enrolled.
Yes, the drop was worse – much worse – for Labour than for National (from 19.6% to 16.0%), and also dropped for the Greens(from 7.9% to 6.5%) but I don’t want to see this reported as a surge in support for National, because it’s not.
I’m in the Rangitikei electorate
I'm curious if you voted Beetham back in the day?
jack and mark , if you are trying to tell me that politics are dirtier today than they have ever been, then I'll just say that it has never been so easy to play that game. I don't believe that anything has changed except for the means to play in the dirt.
I’m hopeful that Hone will get over his lover’s quarrel with the Maori Party ; are they really so far apart?
I understood he approached them before the election got underway and tried to get them to work together to keep the independent Maori voice in the Maori electorates strong. They refused. And that independence was (largely) lost to Maori.
I'm hoping against hope they stay Internet Mana. Laila and Hone are great together...
I was very impressed with Laila Harre throughout the campaign. It would be great to have her in parliament... a staunch but compassionate woman, unlike the Nats' frontline of staunch and notably uncompassionate women.
And I'm also hoping that Dotcom's legal team keep him in NZ and he stays with IMP in that visionary role. We have an internet-age Einstein on our shores here. I hope we can benefit from him building one tech company after another, based in NZ and wildly successful worldwide.
Dotcom might have been a real asset to the potenial tech industry in NZ, but I fear that his brand has attracted too much vitriol from the powers-that-be to make that happen. Watch out for the "Deport the Fat German" law to be passed under urgency in the near future.
And I ask again... 'where is Jason Ede?'
I may have misunderstood, could you clarify it in any way?
Sorry mark - can't help you with that - wouldn't affect me so didn't pay much attention. Details lost in the fog of war perhaps?
I get the idea of learning from how an opposition did well, but…
Did anyone notice that National was NOT promising tax cuts?
…did National promise anything besides some kind of non-specific thing about obviously being brilliant economic managers and taking the country in the "right" direction?
No Ben, but I did save his life one day when he was rolling backwards down a a bloody near vertical slope on a three-wheeler. I was lower down, so I rammed him from below and brought him to a stop.
And you know what.. he was pissed about the grease that had ruined his suit trousers.
All you talk about is keeping an economic status quo, a status quo which doesn't hold water for 52% of the population.
There was no mandate for our current economic direction. There was a New Zealand MMP state election and National have won the governance rights for three years. Lots of problems to solve and 52% of the voting population yesterday wanted someone else to do it. So there's debate. No one belongs here.
OK, no worries, I think it's about then that I began to wonder exactly what the object was, I'll keep asking around.
Farmer, have you escaped from Kiwiblog by any chance?
His style is very similar to a troll from the Hot Topic climate change blog.
Somebody get a hockey stick and we can have at him...
That doesn't sound like the Tariana Turia that I know.
Too much testosterone in the new leadership?
Someone I never heard of until he became a transitory media idol.
the whole episode was irrelevant
I've yet to meat anyone who habitually took any direct notice of Cameron Slater, but if you've had any exposure to media in NZ, chances are you've been very subject to the consequences of his involvement.
I did save his life one day
That’s even better than the one about the guy who pulled Corporal Muldoon out of a wadi in the North African desert, using a grappling iron that stuck in his left cheek.
The opposition has a lot of ammo, if aimed correctly, who knows.
Indeed. And they also have the three Offices of Parliament and the privileges committee. WP is the most constitutionally informed. He needs to be given the reigns to lead this for the whole of the opposition.
I’m also keen to see all of these stats, Lucy. David Hood already gave this link on the Time To Vote thread which has some figures that might help you. It’s got the eligible voter stats. You’re actually a little under on the estimated eligible population, which is 3,391,100. I’d expect that when linearly extrapolating an exponential model.
I’ve yet to meat anyone who habitually took any direct notice of Cameron Slater, but if you’ve had any exposure to media in NZ, chances are you’ve been very subject to the consequences of his involvement.
And that includes teachers and principals who had the temerity to oppose National Standards. What David Slack said about the purpose of the whole Dirty Politics thing being to silence people was apposite. You might never have heard of Slater, but what you saw and heard in the media was often a consequence of what he did on National’s behalf.
jack and mark , if you are trying to tell me that politics are dirtier today than they have ever been, then I’ll just say that it has never been so easy to play that game. I don’t believe that anything has changed except for the means to play in the dirt.
Not at all, just giving you the rough gist of the book as it appeared to have passed you by there in Rangitkei. I agree, the song remains the same.
his brand has attracted too much vitriol from the powers-that-be to make that happen.
No, the only powers-that-be that matter are the judiciary. And the judiciary is no fan of this government (and not just on the Dotcom issues). Read, for example, the judgement associated with the challenge associated with denying prisoners the right to a vote.
If we can't see him we can't start casting the movie.
You were his next door neighbor?
I think that you're right. If you asked me what National was seeking a mandate to do, I wouldn't be sure.
Maybe shift the tax brackets . . MAYBE.
Reform the RMA . . . some vague noises in that direction.
Can't think of anything else.
No . From recall , it was something to do with a farmer meeting about the sales tax on three-wheelers , which were a new tool. It might have been during the Muldoon era Ben.
I've always wondered whether I should have just let him go :-)
There's a choice bit in the book when they stop slandering the opposition and plot to slander themselves. It's a funny old book.