Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The odds, and the simply odd

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  • Russell Brown,

    O hai. I made a blog post, but it was a bit late.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Labour has so far run a flawless campaign. To use a rugby analogy, they are like an aging team of seasoned rugby players, the educated boot of Clark is making sure they are playing the game in the opposition half, their experienced pack has dictated the pace, and they've pounced on opposition mistakes. Now, with the try line in sight, they've upped the urgency.

    I've got no idea what to make of the polls, the observation I will make is that a variance in the National lead of 3-19% across three polls in one weekend will surely be ringing alarm bells within the polling companies themselves, because whoever is wrong is going to be seriously dicredited post election.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Kerry Weston,

    I noticed on the English/Cullen interview on 9 to noon this morning, that English was careful to impress that Key had been an Investment Bank Manager, rather than one of those financial wheeler dealers responsible for bringing down capitalism as we know it. "I understand and was successful in international finance" used to carry some clout, it doesn't anymore.

    Manawatu • Since Jan 2008 • 494 posts Report Reply

  • LegBreak,

    And to continue the rugby analogy.

    Now that the match is being played out in very slippery and windy conditions, the experience of the Labour forward pack is proving to be very useful.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 1162 posts Report Reply

  • Tim Croft,

    I attended an Obama rally in Columbus, Ohio over the weekend and while I can't speak for a McCain rally, I found the Obama rally to be a really inspiring event.

    A much larger crowd than expected turned out. Everyone was cheerful, enthusiastic and positive. The police merely stood back and allowed the crowd to flow and security was, for security, pleasant. People there came to hear something positive and upbeat, and that's what Obama delivered.

    Certainly, Columbus is a predominantly Democrat town as opposed to Cincinnati where McCain has a large presence, but I couldn't help notice that there was no presence of McCain anywhere in the city. You would have thought only Obama was running.

    Tuscaloosa • Since May 2008 • 23 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Labour has so far run a flawless campaign. To use a rugby analogy, they are like an aging team of seasoned rugby players, the educated boot of Clark is making sure they are playing the game in the opposition half, their experienced pack has dictated the pace, and they've pounced on opposition mistakes. Now, with the try line in sight, they've upped the urgency.

    Okay, I'll play ...

    The first half of the game has been played in excellent conditions, and National has run up a big lead against a an ageing side that seems past its best and lately struggling to do the basics.

    The crowd applauds as the untested first-five Key -- his combination with the nuggety Southland halfback English finally firing -- slides through gaps.

    But with half an hour to go, the worst southerly storm in years comes through. It's sleeting and treacherous. Clark pulls a Martin Johnson -- calling herself in all the lineouts and leading the drives. Cullen, the cocksure flyhalf, responds by running the ball at Key, or booting it in the air for Trevor Mallard to chase.

    National's players start to tire -- too many nights out gossiping with Bridget Saunders? -- and English fires a pass straight over Key's head.

    But what's this? Mallard has been yellow-carded! The drama continues!

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Key's relative inexperience comes through at all the wrong moments. He's often assured and clear but that's usually when he's simply speaking and not being questioned. He's got a tendency to talk in in-complete sentences, to half-agree during questioning and to shuffle about on the spot; his discomfort is palpable. Whether Clark's experience and judgment is enough for Labour to recover is uncertain though...

    On Hooten, earlier a commentator here wondered if Franks would provide the macaca moment, I think it's now clear its all Matthew's. Willie Jackson used him as a fluffer for Winnie and he fully embraced the role.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Poor Trevor! He was just retaliating after Henare put in a cheap shot.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The latest delightful video from the McCain-Palin campaign trail.

    A funny man has an Obama doll he calls "LIttle Hussein". It's a ... a monkey doll.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • Conal Tuohy,

    Russell, it's worth remembering that the polls are only samples, and biased samples at that - you have to have a phone, you have to answer the phone when the pollster calls, you have to have made up your mind, you have to be inclined to tell the pollster what you think. If one of those doesn't apply, you are excluded from the result (but not, of course, excluded from voting in the actual election).

    If you call on different days of the week, or at different times of the week, you'll get results which are different - systematically and consistently different.

    That's also why these polls generally can't be just "translated into parliamentary seats" as the media can't seem to help itself doing.
    The Colmar Brunton poll, for instance, includes this disclaimer (blithely ignored by Guyon Espiner on One News!):

    NOTE: The data does (sic) not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election.

    Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise

    One News Colmar Brunton Poll Method Summary

    Melbourne • Since Oct 2008 • 14 posts Report Reply

  • Nat Torkington,

    But but ... but ... Peters is a fucking cunt! I concur with the last paragraph of Hooton's blog entry that you point to:

    Finally, I am very proud that I have looked Peters in the eye and called him a liar, a crook and a fucking cunt. He has been a most evil influence on New Zealand politics since he first began telling lies, scaremongering and attacking minorities in the 1980s. And I also feel a little guilty that I have been able to look him in the eye and tell him the truth when so many other New Zealanders don’t get the same opportunity.

    That said, the real scandal isn't who called who a cunt (there seem plenty of worthy recipients of that approbation) but rather that as the world economic markets melt down, our fake wealth and bogus lifestyles begin to gently orbit the plug hole that they'll eventually go down, and we look set for the biggest and hardest market-induced lifestyle correction since the 1930s ... the best NZ television can think to do for current affairs is to trot out a venal politician and a vapid waste of biomass (sorry, "centre-right political commentator") and have them handbag it on air.

    I've had bad mussels that caused liquid diarrhoea more compelling than that kind of bullshit "great tv". It's all connected: we indulged our individual greed, bankrolled ultimately by opaque hedge fund greed, and didn't want to hear anything that might deny that it was our innate and inalienable god-given right to get 110% loans with 0% down because we were just so fucking CLEVER to be riding this wave of 12% year on year property appreciation. So we demanded and got piss-weak newspapers and this kind of mindless televisual drivel that barely functions as entertainment and fails miserably to be any kind of informative.

    In short, we got the media we deserve. Now can we realize the mistake and figure out how to get a good inquisitive feet-to-the-fire press back?

    Ti Point • Since Nov 2006 • 100 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    *yawn* Meanwhile, does any have any fucking thing to say about the depressing lack of actual substance on display? While out of town, I was mulling over whether my PAR piece was a wee bit harsh. Nah... when the analysis is on the level of "Labour had way cooler sounds, and didn't Hillary Clark fuck up the Tories" I just despair nobody should be surprised that, as things stand, if this campaign was a coma patient you'd just smother it with a pillow and move on.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Caleb D'Anvers,

    And National can't even look to the bench for inspiration. It's full of wizened veterans of the 1991 World Cup, rather than fresh new faces from the Provinces ...

    London SE16 • Since Mar 2008 • 482 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Imagine if National ended up emulating the All Blacks; the best team every year except the World Cup one?

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen Judd,

    The McCain campaign is telling its canvassers to go out and tell people, "from the heart", that Obama is a terrorist, and so on:

    With so much at stake, and time running short, Frederick did not feel he had the luxury of subtlety. He climbed atop a folding chair to give 30 campaign volunteers who were about to go canvassing door to door their talking points — for instance, the connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden: "Both have friends that bombed the Pentagon," he said. "That is scary." It is also not exactly true — though that distorted reference to Obama's controversial association with William Ayers, a former 60s radical, was enough to get the volunteers stoked. "And he won't salute the flag," one woman added, repeating another myth about Obama. She was quickly topped by a man who called out, "We don't even know where Senator Obama was really born." Actually, we do; it's Hawaii.

    From here.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3122 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    as my kids old primary school teacher would say "words! use your words kids" - Hooten claims to be one of the best and brightest, he writes for a living - he should be able to come up with better adjectives

    Of course the real reason is that he's a blowhard - he thrives on the attention, it's how he makes his living and without it he'd shrivel up and die - most journalists want a byline, he needs to be the story - I bet he's already tried to land an O'Reilly-like show somewhere

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2623 posts Report Reply

  • Jeremy Eade,

    Gayle Quinnel, a John McCain supporter says at a McCain Rally that "Obama is an Arab..etc"

    That interview with gayle quinnel is amazing, she's terrified.

    auckland • Since Mar 2008 • 1112 posts Report Reply

  • Mark Graham,

    McCain might be fighting dirty but a story just launched in the latest Rolling Stone should help balance things up...

    McCain - reckless and dishonest

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 218 posts Report Reply

  • Idiot Savant,

    So, are the minor parties' opening addresses on YouTube? Sadly, I missed them - which means I missed the highly amusing NWO one...

    Palmerston North • Since Nov 2006 • 1717 posts Report Reply

  • Conor Roberts,

    I noticed on the English/Cullen interview on 9 to noon this morning, that English was careful to impress that Key had been an Investment Bank Manager, rather than one of those financial wheeler dealers responsible for bringing down capitalism as we know it. "I understand and was successful in international finance" used to carry some clout, it doesn't anymore.

    At my first candidates' debate yesterday Lockwood Smith made the point that Key has loads of experience in international finance and can lead us through the current economic crisis.

    A fair number of people in the crowd actually laughed out loud...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 57 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    On Hooten, earlier a commentator here wondered if Franks would provide the macaca moment, I think it's now clear its all Matthew's.

    Paul Williams: Could you at least trot out the Yankee political clichés with some precision? I would fault Matthew for the grotesque libel on vaginas -- that most functional, aesthetically pleasing and pleasure-giving of orifices. But I don't think "cunt" is a rather recondite racial slur, even on Oxford Street. :)

    Of course the real reason is that he's a blowhard - he thrives on the attention, it's how he makes his living and without it he'd shrivel up and die -

    Couldn't agree with you more, regarding Willie Jackson. But he doesn't need to try to "land an O'Reilly-like show" - he's already got one on TV, and another on radio (where the likes of Clint Rickards and Winston Peters will always have a uncritical shoulder to cry on).

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Simon Grigg,

    And Palin has decided that the way to deal with the Troopergate report is simply to lie again. This woman can't help it.

    Just another klong... • Since Nov 2006 • 3284 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    Craig: I call unfair out of context quoting

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2623 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Litterick,

    I am not playing until the rugby analogies stop.

    Why do all the children in those advertisements (Ansell's as well as the Greens') look so odd? The obvious answer - that they probably go to Steiner schools - is not enough to explain their curious faces.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1000 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    Meanwhile... I've got to give Kathryn Ryan kudos for at least trying to get Michael Cullen and Bill English to cash a reality check this morning by asking whether there'd be any spending cuts (or cancelled tax cuts) if the books end up in even worse shape than current projections... (Given Treasury's track record, I don't think that's undue pessimism either.)

    Sure, she failed utterly to knock either man off their talking point psychosis, but big ups for at least trying. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but Cullen and English are either very very stupid or they're lying and hoping nobody is going to call them both out before it's too damn late.

    I don't believe either man is stupid.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

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