Posts by Jack Harrison
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I would love to see John Key, pre- celebrity relieve a year 10 classroom. One year off 16, stroppy as hell in their uncomfortable hurds of 25- 30. Classrooms sizes are too big for many key learning years, years 9-11 especially.
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16 , school citizens. It would be an interesting poll on education policy. Real time voters on education.
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The "grim face or power" is a good watch. According to Sir George Chapman it took "six weeks" of debate to decide Muldoon over Jack Marshall in 1974.
Top table changes are heavy affairs. In the private sector the clash of egos , the removal of rivals and the forming of factions and favourites for control is very common.
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Cunliffe was championed early on by Big Russ. He is a great wonk.
He can't do election media 2014. It's a strange,fucked up circus. That's the realpolitik of 2014. Cunliffe needs to be cool about it. It kind of actually makes him cooler if he leaves. His passion looks like posing to some. Not his problem, but a T.V problem. D.C fights for justice. We know that. Keep on keeping on brother. You have a media problem and you hold the most important figure on the left. It's over but in a way thank god, some other martyr needs to step up and for the good of the country win.
Play the game, new strategy, leaders will always need you. Go back to the great politician you can be. The left have 800,000 voters.We want to win.
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I think the 2002 election result is still a very good breakdown of how left and right N.Z votes.
Nat Party 425,310 20.93, N.Z First 210,912 10.38, ACT Party 145,078 7.14
Green 142,250 7.00, United F 135,918 6.69, Jim's Prg 34,542 1.70, Kapill 27,492 1.35 , OdoorRec 25,985 1.28,
Alliance 25,888 1.27 , Cannabis 12,987 0.64, ManaMaori 4,980 0.25, OneNZ pty 1,782 0.09, Labour 838,219 41.26So the obvious solid right wing vote of Nat (21%), Act(7%) , United Future (7%) is 35% .The N.Z First Vote? Now at the time 70% I would say were Nat friendly so we ad in another 7%. Solid right wing vote = 42%. Kapills and outdoor rec votes, pretty rightish. Add them in , you have 45% for the right wing vote. So at Labours great day in the sun we still have a very solid 45% right wing vote.
Labours great day in the sun was built on Labours 41% and the greens 7% to get to 48%. However even in Labours great day in the sun they failed to form a govt with a pure left voting mandate, only just though ,and had to use less friendlier minority parties .So at its base you have a 3-4% ball game of pulling voters in 2002 , from one side to the other. Lots of right votes, just not with National.
Labour could need as little as 30,00 vote swings in 2017. So in 2002 terms they need the combined votes of the Marijuana Party and the Outdoor Recreational Party.,The difference of course is those 30,000 votes now need to come from 2014 National.
Labour goes to 28, 10 comes from the Greens, NZ first (labour friendly 2014 version) gives its 9 and then it’s a voting pack of 47%. Now it’s just knocking over Peter Dunne and working with all Maori parties.
Crosby- Textor shit bricks about those 30,000-40,000 voters and so should any party. Although its worth noting that such a small shift means that its worth anything politically to achieve that shift them, in America a good smear is always useful. Don Brash used racism.
2014
National Party 1,010,464 48.06
Labour Party 519,146 24.69
Green Party 210,764 10.02
New Zealand First Party 186,031 8.85
Māori Party 27,074 1.29
ACT New Zealand 14,510 0.69
United Future 4,533 0.22
Conservative 86,616 4.12
Internet MANA 26,539 1.26
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 8,539 0.41
Ban1080 4,368 0.21
Democrats for Social Credit 1,609 0.08
The Civilian Party 906 0.04
NZ Independent Coalition 895 0.04
Focus New Zealand 677 0.03 -
A lot of people seem so concerned about Labour now. As if Labour is sick and needs to get well or die.
Getting well involves media interviewing a wide range of labour wanna bes who seem to be massively concerned the party is not lead by a person like them.
The media opinion on this is out of control, it will drive your mentality wild with its underlying theme of “corrupt labour.”
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Milk is our money. It’s so important to our nation.
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Speaker: Compulsory voting and election turnout, in reply to Ben Austin,
I guess it's time to explore true democracy. The true mood of the nation. I vote for a party that I think is best out of the bunch, it doesn't mean I am one with everything they do. It does mean I have performed democracy. Our thing.
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OnPoint: Sunlight Resistance, in reply to krothville,
Politics historically : an arena of much manipulation.
Media: The peoples journal.
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Speaker: Compulsory voting and election turnout, in reply to Dismal Soyanz,
Well said.