Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland
506 Responses
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There's no way to win this.
Either you're right, and people in China seeking foreign property *are* buying Auckland houses in great numbers.
Or you're wrong, and people in China seeking foreign property *are not* buying Auckland houses in great numbers.
Twyford and Salmond have been far too smart for their own good.
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Jim Cathcart, in reply to
Yes, one of the problems looking through a consideration funnel is that you still need an outcome to make an accurate estimate. As for BNZ, I would their estimate is based on their own customer base, which they then extrapolate based on their estimated relative share of customers by ethnicity.
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Alfie, in reply to
__Stats from BNZ__ indicate numbers of overseas buyers relatively small and Chinese overseas buyers only portion of that.
What makes you think the BNZ stats show the full picture?
When the Chinese government is supporting overseas land purchases by making loans easy to get, it's unlikely that the BNZ would get a look in. Why take out an expensive mortgage from an Aussie bank when money from home is cheaper and much easier to obtain.
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Lilith __, in reply to
How long should we wait before making things up??
The government has started collecting the data, and now require a NZ IRD number for people buying property.
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Alfie, in reply to
The government has started collecting the data, and now require a NZ IRD number for people buying property.
True. But I wonder how many resident Chinese students will effectively "own" NZ property while having little or no visible income. The requirement to have an IRD number is just National's way of appearing to do something about the problem whilst sitting on their hands.
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Katharine Moody, in reply to
The government has started collecting the data, and now require a NZ IRD number for people buying property.
That doesn't tell us where we are at but rather where we might get to with respect to foreign ownership. Question is: are we happy with where we are at with Auckland market prices and private mortgage debt.
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Labour would have been far better advised to turn their guns on; the inefficient and expensive construction industry, the “Australian” banks, or the parasitic real estate industry. Almost everyone distrusts or dislikes those industries.
Many people dislike or distrust foreign investors too, but Labour/we can’t win because if they’re successful they’ll end up bringing the hate back to immigrants who live here. (This dislike already exists, but they’ll succeed in spreading and intensifying it). That isn’t what Phil wants, it isn’t what Rob wants, and it’s not what their party wants.
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David Tong, in reply to
Exactly. Apparently I'm Chinese now?
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Sacha, in reply to
That isn’t what Phil wants, it isn’t what Rob wants, and it’s not what their party wants.
Yet they've done it anyway. Geniuses.
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The question for Rob/Phil is simple: Do you know how this game works?
Given your experience, the question would seem rhetorical. So you have sat down, discussed your strategy and decided to do this, in (we have to assume) the full knowledge of how this would go down in the media (note: that's the media which most voters consume, not lengthy Public Address posts).
The explanation I'd like is not the methodology, but the motivation. What the hell are you doing?
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Steve Curtis, in reply to
Exactly. Apparently I’m Chinese now?
No one has said that, A large group has been allocated ethnicity based on surnames.
A similar method is used for decile ratings of schools. Student addresses are matched to mesh blocks, which then provide an average income. This method matches an income based on the street you live in. It DOESNT presume to know your household income.
Your neighbours may be ‘dinks’ ( the demographic kind) but you are a single income with 3 kids. Its average over all the pupils to give a rating ( 1-10).
The problems with school decile ratings are that parents presume it means ethnicity.
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Jan Rivers, in reply to
If you're explaining, you're losing
What a spectacularly silly comment. So debate, clarification and argument are all superfluous making a case? Are you also proposing that public address is therefore populated by losers on all sides or are some kinds of explanation valid?
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At the very least, Twyford could have kept out or minimised the race thing, just by staying on message with 'absentee non-residents', which a stamp duty could partially fix. And in Aussie, non-residents can buy a house if they build it from scratch.
Then again, Twyford might really be pitching for the Winston vote. If so, there's a real risk it could push the 'model minority' vote to the Blue Team.
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It is the only data anyone has. How else could they have used it? The fact is that they have highlighted a huge problem. It is impossible to argue against their findings when no other data is available.
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Swan,
If Labour are correct in their analysis, then this shows two things. One we are recieving foreign direct investment in an area where we have a shortage of investment - housing. That's pretty much an entirely good news story.
Two, the price response shows the supply side of the market is broken - that is the problem here.However, even if the supply curve was vertical, foreign buyers purchasing is good for renters. Being against investors is really the same as being against renters which is pretty regressive.
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Alfie, in reply to
If Labour are correct in their analysis, then this shows two things. One we are recieving foreign direct investment in an area where we have a shortage of investment - housing. That's pretty much an entirely good news story.
Wow! Foreign investors driving up the price of housing in Auckland is now a good thing? That sort of logic makes me grateful that I live down south.
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Sacha, in reply to
Then again, Twyford might really be pitching for the Winston vote.
Unless him and his leader firmly say otherwise, that's a perfectly reasonable assumption. Was there anything on the TV news (not watching them anymore)?
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simon g, in reply to
The fact is that they have highlighted a huge problem.
No, they have completely re-defined a huge problem, in a way that is likely to come back and bite them on the bum. The problem was previously about capital gains tax, property speculation and assorted problems/solutions with the Auckland market. Now it's about people (voters, in fact) with names: "Mr Singh" and "Ms Lee". It was complex, now it's simple. Clearly that was what Labour wanted. They have cut through.
I assume they've calculated that X exceeds Y (X being angry Aucklanders of Winstonian tendencies, Y being Mr Singh, Ms Lee and their friends). I think those calculations are wrong.
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Swan,
Notwithstanding my comment above, this analysis does look highly speculative. The idea that we should be comparing the % of buyers to the total population is dubious. The latest surge in property prices in Auckland has correlated rather well, nlike it usually does with a boom of inward migration. The stats show that nearly 40% of immigrants are from Asia. A lot of those will be from China. So we can't draw much from the data.
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Danielle, in reply to
("If you're explaining, you're losing" is a quote by Ronald Reagan -- also used by the Turd Blossom himself, Karl Rove, I believe. I guess it means that if your political idea ends up putting you on the explanation-spiral-defensive it isn't a winning strategy.)
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Two, the price response shows the supply side of the market is broken – that is the problem here.
Much of the supply happens to be held back by those who want the RMA thrown on a bonfire, yet at the same time will invoke it when it suits them.
ACT leader David Seymour has a weird concept of property rights:
and they do not want to have their neighborhoods intensified with eight story towers next to their homes. And the kind of rates corruption that they get from Len Brown -
Genter: And this is interesting because this is supposedly the free market party arguing for regulation. Arguing for regulation, higher prices where land values are high, where people want to live.
Seymour: No, what I’m arguing for is if the people of Epsom have bought into certain property rights and the character of their community.
Dick Quax claims Auckland is more densely populated than Sydney, Melbourne and even Vancouver. Cameron Brewer claims
And of course, this brain-fart from Denise Krum.
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Rae Sott, in reply to
Investment in already existing housing is dreadful, and contributes nothing, and that is from anybody, the rentier class regardless of where they are from including here, need severely curtailing and NZ needs to again be a nation of home owner occupiers.
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Sacha, in reply to
So we can't draw much from the data.
not if we're being ethical, professional, etc.
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It does not surprise me that this data (such as it is) has been leaked. What does surprise me is that it has taken this long for the panic button to be pressed.
I have had conversations with three real estate agents over the past six months...from North Auckland, Alberta, and Los Angeles.
All have made the exact same observation. Their respective markets have been profoundly affected by Chinese nationals with seemingly bottomless pockets buying property at prices significantly higher than valuation.
Auctions figure prominently, with phone buyers from the Chinese mainland routinely beating the highest bid by offering ten percent higher than the last bid....it seems that that jump in price is enough to deter further bids from local prospective buyers...who are on a less elastic budget.
Despite the fact the these realtors have benefited from this upsurge in sales and house prices....all expressed dismay that house prices have become so artificially high that home ownership has gone beyond the reach of even those young people on moderately high incomes.
The real estate agent from North Auckland described the situation as "sheer and utter madness", and "suicide for the local economy". The spectre of Kiwis being tenants in our own country is very real. (A friend had a landlord, a Chinese banker, who owned 50 rental houses in Hamilton..)
Despite having, as I wrote earlier, benefited financially from these sales to non resident buyers with unlimited funds, the Kiwi agent simply could not understand how on earth this current government was re-elected when it had not only failed to acknowledge there is a severe problem but also failed to do take any measures to at least slow down the market.
He saw this as gross negligence and a failure to protect the interests of NZ citizens.
Such a pity that Labour handled this significant issue so clumsily...the path to hell and all that.
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"First, Chinese Aucklanders tend to be young, and tend to have low incomes."
But then...
"While the ethnically Chinese population makes up 9% of Aucklanders, it makes up only 5% of Aucklanders on high incomes."
Wouldn't that mean that more than half of (126,000) Chinese population in Auckland are on high incomes? How is that 'tend to have low incomes'?
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