Legal Beagle by Graeme Edgeler

Without a loss here, it may have been difficult for the Maori Party not to run in Te Tai Tokerau in November. They’re now in a better position to learn the lesson and take the deal.

Pita Sharples just indicated that he intends to stand an electorate candidate in Te Tai Tokerau in November.

Pita Sharples just indicated that he intends to stand an electorate candidate in Te Tai Tokerau in November.

Solomon Tipene: the Maori Party's Aaron Bhatnager.

What is the status of the Maori Party - Hone deal not to run against each other then? In the scrap bin?

What is the status of the Maori Party – Hone deal not to run against each other then? In the scrap bin?

The Maori Party intends to run against Hone. I suspect Mana does not intend to run against the Maori Party.

Two or three electorate seats is worthless for Mana except to avoid the ACT "problem" of relying on an electorate seat for your political survival. Parties need alternatives. Except for that reason, Mana should, if they are smart, focus on as many party votes as possible. That signifies success with a sole electorate seat, not another electorate seat (or 2).

the values both Mana and the Maori Party attest

Isn't part of the reason for Mana existing a sense that the Maori Party was not acting consistently with such claimed values? And are they the same anyway?

I am very interested to see the Mana party list, when it comes out. The main parties' selection processes tend to filter out ideologues -- while capable and pragmatic operators are necessary to broker the deals that ultimately get shit done, I would love to see some more people with unblunted principles in Parliament.

Sue Bradford and John Minto have been previously approached to stand for the Mana Party. They're best to keep their distance and operate outside party politics like Matt McCarten, or maybe even resurrect the Alliance instead.

John Armstrong offers some wishful opining from within the Thorndon bubble.

He wanted the voters of Te Tai Tokerau to give him and his Mana Party a fresh and sizeable mandate. They have instead sent Hone Harawira an ultimatum.

Their message is clear. They want something more than someone who seems to see his role as an MP purely as a lone conscience in a parliamentary den of compromise.

They want less of playing the outsider and more supping with the devil to get some gains for his constituents.

Without a hint of irony he then castigates the Maori Party for their deal with National. But our out-of-touch honky still hasn't finished reading those Tai Tokerau tea-leaves.

In swinging in behind Davis in comparatively large number, voters have put Harawira firmly on notice.

More than half of those who voted yesterday obviously don't care for his brand of confrontational politics.

They now expect him to shape up as a constructive politician working inside the parliamentary process or he will be shipped out in November.

No, John, you're the one who had better lift your game and stop making shit up or regurgitating National Party talking points.

Sacha, I have never understood this school of analysis which presents the aggregate vote as somehow a unified voice of the voters sending a message together, as though we all rang each other and said "you vote for him, I'll vote for her, I've arranged for just two of my mates to vote for candidate Z so they feel a bit supported but not too cocky".

It's bullshit to read any intention into the collective of all voters and it makes me grind my teeth to read it, no matter who does it.

Also, thanks for using "Thorndon Bubble" instead of "beltway".

Ah, rorting MMP. Be interesting if they split the Mana-Maori for that end, but not good for the system at a time when everyone else gets a chance to throw it away.

Still, great thing to see the left rise once more, and here's hoping they get rid of that bloody 5% threshold in few years. Enough with all this hanging your party on one electorate; Winston, Jim, Peter, Rodney, Hone, or anyone else. 0.625% all the way, half of two seats for one.

I think one of the interesting wrinkles will be what happens with the party vote in the Māori seats.

Graeme, you seem to be suggesting that (wittingly or not) the Māori and Mana parties are pursuing something like this strategy (with two parties, rather than with one party and lots of independents). And if so, they're doing it in a way that doesn't look like they're gaming the system, so it doesn't give other parties an excuse to also pursue the same strategy.

Is that by chance because ether you don’t think they should endorse Hone, the Maori seats, the Maori people as a collective or what?

The Hone factor. I suspect anyone who works with him probably won't take long to do a Peoples Front of Judea on him.

Graeme, you seem to be suggesting that (wittingly or not) the Māori and Mana parties are pursuing something like this strategy (with two parties, rather than with one party and lots of independents).

Yep. Although the Māori Party may not be in on it. It doesn't require collusion, and Hone doesn't need the Māori Party's permission. They make it easier for him if they don't run in Northland, but it's mostly up to Mana and their choice over whether to run candidates in Māori Party-held electorates.

Phil Goff thinks he can win all seven Maori seats and that "[Hone's] his ideology was different from Labour's and he was not a stable partner".

So, if after that election Labour have 50 seats, Greens 8 and Mana 4, we'll be seeing a National-led minority government? One hopes the rest of Labour will finally have the sense to roll Goff, should that eventuate.

Actually I believe Goff ruled out a coalition agreement. That doesn't mean they couldn't cut a more limited deal for confidence and supply,

following this in the media,
it seems that the by-election is over
but the bile action continues...

I don't think this is good news for Labour, and here is my reasoning.

Yes, it gives them more of a chance of "coming through the middle" in the Maori electorates, but this has to be balanced by the possible loss of party votes, and for a big party like Labour party votes are what determine their eventual power in parliament.

Many Maori party electorate voters in 2008 split their votes between Maori and Labour, ( Labour won the party vote in all the Maori seats in 2008), If Hone can come to some understanding, formal or otherwise, that Mana will go after the party vote, and leave the electorate vote for the Maori Party, then these party votes may coming from Labour.

From Labour's point of view I suspect that they would not call the swapping of a couple of list MPs for two or three Maori electorates a good trade if their total number of seats in the house were reduced by 2-3.

Well, there haven't been many coalition agreements recently. Labour/Progressive? Apart from that confidence-and-supply has been the main way parties have worked together.

Yes, it gives them more of a chance of “coming through the middle” in the Maori electorates, but this has to be balanced by the possible loss of party votes, and for a big party like Labour party votes are what determine their eventual power in parliament.

Personally I think even if Labour does take back some Maori seats, it's of limited value.

It will mean more to the party and the Maori wing of it, but in terms of parliament it won't mean any difference at all - just less list MPs.

I can see a future where Labour cedes the electoral vote in Maori seats to Maori party once they've got some sort of likely coalition understanding with them.

even if Labour does take back some Maori seats, it’s of limited value.

I think the value is not having the Maori/National party in a position of influence, really.