Legal Beagle: Election '11: the special votes
80 Responses
First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 Newer→ Last
-
As a geek, I just revised and improved my Saint Lague calculator, and note that national have seat 121 at the moment, and that NZ First are closest to pinching this. It would take a modest swing in the specials of half a percent from National for this to occur. Luckily for Key & National, specials historically don't favour NZ First. The Greens are quite far back. They'd need an extra 3.5% or so, plus a half percent loss from National.
(All these percentages are of special votes only, which would be a very small nudge of the overall percentages)
-
stephen walker, in reply to
so in effect you are saying that the Greens need about 14% of the Special votes to get their 14th MP? how does that compare with their Special vote performance in 2008?
-
Posts about specials and Sainte-Lague rankings at Te Standard - with detailed numbers - and Kiwipolitico.
-
I think the bulk of the special votes may be people in my position rather than advance and out of electorate votes.
Yes you're correct - the highest number of special votes within any electorate are likely to be for that electorate - for the unpublished roll, and late enrolments, plus take-home votes.
But Christchurch Central's diaspora of residents temporarily resident elsewhere may mean that there are more special votes than normal coming there from elsewhere.
-
stephen walker, in reply to
thanks.
-
Most fun with Sainte-Laguë is the odd rounding when you shift the total.
124 MPs = 62 v 62.
120 MPs = 61 v 59.
116 MPs = 58 v 58.Bullshit, eh. That's why we need preferences on the party vote, stop the left-right rounding errors on these close ones, even though Conservative would push right in this case. 8]
-
It depends on how many special votes are valid, and how other things change relatively speaking. Maybe more useful to think that of the 220000 special votes, the Greens would expect to get a bit over 20000 of those, buy somewhere like 25000 might get them an MP. Not currently near a spreadsheet but that’s my sense of it. Whereas NZ First need maybe only 16000 not 15000 to get an extra. But it does depends who suffers for these losses to occur.
I think the Green swing last time was less than expected. It was a pretty similar scenario IIRC.
-
stephen walker, in reply to
thanks.
-
Sacha, in reply to
of the 220000 special votes, the Greens would expect to get a bit over 20000 of those
They have tended to get more than their overall general vote share, haven't they? Especially from overseas voters.
-
I think the Greens may have done amazingly in the post but it was more muted in 2008. They got 8.5% in specials (I think) versus 6.6% on election night. It's a bit hard to find provisional counts for old elections. That was enough to get Kennedy Graham as an extra from election night.
-
Kumara Republic, in reply to
Yup - and it's also worth remembering that New Zealand does things like this because our electoral system is internationally respected and the results taken seriously. Getting the basics of a credible election result done right rather than done right now is important in ways far beyond the obvious.
Too true. While not the fastest process, I'll have old-fashioned pen & paper voting over politically compromised or otherwise defective voting machines any day.
-
As I just said on Dim Post - if it all breaks as expected in your forecast, National add ONE seat and their current loose coalition pals loses 5 between them. Where they could govern just with ACT last time, that now leaves them short.
It just doesn't feel like the huge victory it seems to be getting painted as? Or am I missing something? Incumbent Government adding a seat rather than losing them maybe?
-
Sacha, in reply to
It just doesn't feel like the huge victory it seems to be getting painted as
it's not. many media still haven't adjusted to MMP rather than FPP.
-
2008:
National + ACT + Dunne = 64/122
2011 (if Greens take one off National with the Special votes):
National + Banks + Dunne = 61/121
majority reduced from six to one.
the media duopoly’s headline writers seem to have had too much gin on the night. -
Hebe, in reply to
Most have never understood it. Media tend to think in black and white (with honourable exceptions of course). MMP results are a thousand shades of grey.
-
Hebe, in reply to
2008:
National + ACT + Dunne = 64/122
2011 (if Greens take one off National with the Special votes):
National + Banks + Dunne = 61/121
majority reduced from six to one.
the media duopoly’s headline writers seem to have had too much gin on the nightSub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.
-
Islander, in reply to
sub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.
ur, really really?
-
Chris Waugh, in reply to
sub-editors are useless at maths (well-known fact) with or without gin. They are good at English.
ur, really really?
Um, yeah... Cos I frequently find myself ranting at basic spelling and grammatical mistakes in the pages of the Herald and Stuff.
And now to mark some essays.
-
Islander, in reply to
And me to my other 3 dailies (“Press”, “Greymouth Evening Star” and the “ODT” (that latter not nearly so much…)
-
Hebe, in reply to
Or should I say "they were good at English at school" ;-)
-
Islander, in reply to
Very probably!
-
Lilith __, in reply to
many media still haven’t adjusted to MMP rather than FPP
With MMP and the rise of the Greens I think everyone has to lose the mindset that elections are a 2-horse race.
-
Chris Waugh, in reply to
I think everyone should have lost that mindset a long time ago.
-
I read that a recent poll (cannot find it now sorry) found that 40% of people choose their party vote based on who they would like to see as Prime Minister. It is people like these that haven't truly understood MMP (imho).
-
Kumara Republic, in reply to
I read that a recent poll (cannot find it now sorry) found that 40% of people choose their party vote based on who they would like to see as Prime Minister. It is people like these that haven’t truly understood MMP (imho).
You're probably also thinking of presidentialism or personality cultism. Or both.
Post your response…
This topic is closed.