Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip

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  • BenWilson, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    First brexit now this – polling is completely broken in the post MSM age.

    Nah, it's a couple of unlucky chances, and forget about all the times things went exactly as the polls said. If anyone can think of a better method, go for it. Hindsight will be 20:20, as usual. But that's not much use for predicting the future. Betting markets weren't doing a better job.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel,

    Attachment Attachment

    The NZ Herald article on the Trump ‘victory party’ has a shot of the sombre looking cake above – looks like they just reworked a cake that Christopher Walken forgot to pick up…

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Rosemary McDonald,

    His face was cold. His mouth trembled, asking:
    “Who—who won the presidential election yesterday?”
    The man behind the desk laughed. “You joking? You know
    very well. Deutscher, of course! Who else? Not that fool weakling
    Keith. We got an iron man now, a man with guts!” The official stopped. “What’s wrong?”
    Eckels moaned. He dropped to his knees. He scrabbled at
    the golden butterfly with shaking fingers. “Can’t we,” he pleaded
    to the world, to himself, to the officials, to the Machine, “can’t
    we take it back, can’t we make it alive again? Can’t we start over?
    Can’t we—”
    He did not move. Eyes shut, he waited, shivering. He heard
    Travis breathe loud in the room; he heard Travis shift his rifle,
    click the safety catch, and raise the weapon.
    There was a sound of thunder.

    aka The Butterfly Effect

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1346 posts Report

  • David Hood, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    First brexit now this – polling is completely broken

    It looks like Clinton will likely be with 2% of the popular vote estimate. National polls were pretty accurate in that respect.

    People had been pointing out for some time that being very popular in places like Texas and Alabama (for a Democrat) and California and New York might help you win the primary, but those votes aren't of any use in a general election because they don't alter any state results.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel,

    I'm not seeing the benefit to us the viewers of TV1 (or whatever it calls itself these days) of indulging in the expense of having both Jack Tame and Mike Hosking metres away from each other covering the Clinton campaign's party venue.
    Seems to me there are better things for them to spend their money on than indulging Hosking's need to be seen to be on the spot - he strikes me as more of a Trump man anyway...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • simon g, in reply to David Hood,

    But the polls were wrong by some margin, across a range of individual states, each with their own characteristics.

    Michigan, for example.

    There's much more involved here than margin of error.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report

  • BenWilson, in reply to simon g,

    There’s much more involved here than margin of error.

    Can't say I'm convinced. The event was unlikely, but not outrageously so.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Carol Stewart,

    And this was the NZ Herald as of yesterday: But according to online lecturer in politics and PhD candidate at Swinburne University, Bryan Cranston, polling aside, it is actually mathematically impossible for Trump to win the US election.

    Wellington • Since Jul 2008 • 830 posts Report

  • BenWilson, in reply to Carol Stewart,

    Yeah, I saw that and had to chuckle. The phrase "mathematically impossible" is usually reserved for things like proving 1+1=3. Not making spurious statistical claims, in massive disagreement with the opinions of actual statisticians.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Tom Semmens,

    Oh well, Michelle Obama will save America in 2020.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report

  • Tom Johnson,

    Dirty elections always favour the right. This idea of two bad corrupt candidates sucked out all the vibrancy of "yes we can."

    "Crooked Hillary "campaigning worked. Remember Donny Brash nearly won here by calling clarks government, "the most corrupt in history" and Johnny K just fed on that . The smearing works.

    hamilton • Since Mar 2016 • 99 posts Report

  • Rob Stowell,

    The implications are slowly sinking in - a bit like Brexit, there's going to be some panic along the lines of: "what's the plan?" "I thought you had a plan?" "Does anyone know where we put the plans?"
    Goodbye TPP and Obamacare. Other trade implications are hard to judge. There's a strong chance China will quickly move to take some leadership positions, possibly joining Europe to lead on climate change. In some areas the US may simply get left behind.
    The wall, the deportation of undocumented immigrants - who knows. Probably a powerful wall committee will sit on the fence for four years. Tax and government finances will be run by Paul Ryan, who has a horrible agenda. I don't think it will make many Trump voters happy. The supreme court is fo-barred, abortion under threat, and gay marriage maybe too. In the meantime quite a few more states have voted to legalise pot - maybe the US will just end up with a very stoned populace :)
    It will be interesting to see how Trump spins his brilliant plan to defeat ISIS, and no doubt be alarming who he finds as new friends in a world where other major economic powers might just wave the US goodbye.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2120 posts Report

  • Angela Win,

    Like so many I have been perhaps a little obsessively following this election and while saddened, I was not surprised at the results that are coming out, when you look at what is happening around the world. I think the big questions are, globally how have we got to the stage where so many people feel so disenfranchised that they are voting this way? And how do we fix it? Can we even fix it? Is the reasoning that any change is better than the status quo, no matter the consequences or actual chance of election promises being fulfilled (I’d like to see how Trump is going to get Mexico to pay for that wall!) Brexit and now this are really making me look at how other people not aligned to my ideologies are living their lives and questioning why they feel so threatened and/or overlooked by their own governments.

    Dunedin • Since Dec 2015 • 2 posts Report

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    Goodbye TPP

    Thank God there's a silver lining.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Zach Bagnall,

    Well my state tipped blue, but managed to defeat a ballot proposal for universal healthcare funded by state taxes. I'm sure the thousands of vulnerable residents who are about to lose access to healthcare when the ACA is repealed will be pleased.

    Colorado • Since Nov 2006 • 121 posts Report

  • Tom Johnson,

    Well done the right wing, your monster has come, he is the greatest right winger ever. Trumped by your own ideology, the survival of the fittest, with fitness being determined by your winningness. This is history.

    hamilton • Since Mar 2016 • 99 posts Report

  • Rosemary McDonald, in reply to ,

    Reality TV, just got real bad.


    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1346 posts Report

  • Rich Lock,

    Just woke up here in the UK. At least, I assume I did, and this isn't some incredibly vivid fever dream.


    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report

  • Tom Johnson,

    Well the potential of a multitude of real lawsuits, a Republican party that may grow to hate their own “CEO” president and the mind blowing almost certainly Presidential ending reality if a link to Russian assistance and cohesion is established still remain.

    hamilton • Since Mar 2016 • 99 posts Report

  • izogi, in reply to BenWilson,

    The TPPA has already survived so much doubt and Trump is so much of an actor that I’ll not believe it’s truly dead until I see it actually happen. Don’t be too surprised if he somehow comes back and tries to sell it as a way to control other countries that owe Americans. Probably after some token renegotiations.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1142 posts Report

  • mark taslov, in reply to Angela Win,

    overlooked by their own governments.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report

  • Alfie,

    Steve Braunias: How Donald Trump won

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1440 posts Report

  • Rob Stowell,

    Its tough to realise Trump did this with far less money and organisation than Hillary had.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2120 posts Report

  • Russell Brown,

    This is a hell of a read from Beijing-based FT journalist James Palmer: China just won the U.S. election:

    But generally, these developments will only embolden China. After the 2008 financial crisis, Beijing was convinced the world was going its way, resulting in a spate of overconfident military moves in southeast Asia which pushed some countries more firmly into the U.S. camp. Now China’s confidence will return, and few in the region will have confidence in Washington’s ability to provide shelter from China’s nascent hegemony. Taiwan, already facing tough mainland rhetoric after electing anti-Beijing leader Tsai Ing-wen, will feel completely isolated — and perhaps be vulnerable to actual invasion — without the firm promise of U.S. protection.

    The second victory is in the contest between authoritarianism and democracy. From a Chinese point of view, an electoral system that produces somebody like Trump — utterly inexperienced in governance but a skilled demagogue — is an absurdity, the equivalent of picking a major company’s CEO through a horse race. In China, leaders need to be carefully chosen, groomed, and pushed, gaining experience at every level of the Communist Party system before being anointed for the top job. (That comes amid a flurry of brutally nasty and corrupt internal struggles at each level, mind you.)

    China aspires toward the Singaporean model of carefully controlled elitism, a country in which Trump represents, in the words of one writer, everything they were taught to fear about democracy. The crudity of Trump’s triumphant campaign gives credence to Chinese media’s criticisms of a “chaotic political farce.” The likely split between the popular vote and the Electoral College will only further the often-made case that U.S. democracy is a sham.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    Its tough to realise Trump did this with far less money and organisation than Hillary had.

    True. A lot of political wisdom about ground-games and suchlike was turfed in the dustbin today.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report

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