Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Long, Strange Trip

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  • BenWilson,

    Even at the very lowest Trump got to in the last few months, around 11%, that's still not a shoo in, that's a chance you would not want to bet your savings on. Well, OK, depending on the payout and your taste for risk, of course.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Not saying Trump *will* win, but that there is a finite probability that he will.

    Well that's always true, no matter how he's polling. Zero is, after all, a finite number. But presumably you mean there is a non-zero chance. In which case note that 0.000000000000000000000000000001 is also non-zero. So again, that one is always true. Any event that is not completely impossible has a non-zero chance.

    But in the case of this election there's no need to be so pedantic. The chances of a Trump win are not insignificant. They're scarily high, considering what is at risk.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to BenWilson,

    True, although that will change if a swing state comes in blue. Especially if it’s Florida.

    Trump has been slightly ahead there, but that’s only the rural booths. His two-point lead just reversed on the latest update. That’s the city booths coming in.

    Update: 20 seconds after I wrote that, the NYT switched Florida to Trump …

    Update 2: And 30 seconds later, back to Clinton.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22850 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Yes, by nightfall the probability will most likely have settled at zero or one.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    It's looking very even in Florida. But Illinois going for Clinton just bumped her chances.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic,

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5443 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    I think I’ve reflected a large number of people’s thoughts with this one…

    ...and the hippos were boiled in their tanks?
    - Bullet hole aside, it kinda looks like two wannabe Houdinis trying to escape their water filling tanks...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    … and now viewed through a rising red mist…

    N.B. giving Trump a “40% chance of winning” is very emphatically not the same thing as saying Trump is polling at "40% of the popular vote" (among likely voters). I think these two very different types of measurement are getting confused in the current discussion.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1944 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    This is a nightmare. I can't even ...

    Sincere hugs to all decent Americans. For the rest, enjoy what you have done (hint: you really won't).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1332 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    Fuck. I wasn't trying to invoke anything...

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen,

    I was wrong

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4460 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen R,

    Republican House, Republican Senate, and Trump?

    Is it time to panic yet?

    Wellington • Since Jul 2009 • 259 posts Report Reply

  • Mikaere Curtis,

    Scary, fivethirtyeight.com now say the chances are 50% Clinton vs 48% Trump.

    Tamaki Makaurau • Since Nov 2006 • 528 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to Mikaere Curtis,

    It's more like 90-10 Trump, the states Clinton needed have almost all gone. Barring a Florida recount, or legal challenges anywhere, it's over.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1332 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to simon g,

    For the rest, enjoy what you have done (hint: you really won't)

    Guess who's going to be blamed.

    In unrelated news, I googled Randall County, Texas, where Trump's won a 43,000 to 8,000 victory over Hillary Clinton. Clicking through to the job opportunities page zat the top of their Quick Links, and then to the Randall County Sheriff's Office at the top in the list, I reckon that Office Recruiting video (on the page of the last link) is totally fascinating as a random insight.

    And the NZ Police reckoned they had Better Work Stories.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1142 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Mikaere Curtis,

    Scary, fivethirtyeight.com now say the chances are 50% Clinton vs 48% Trump.

    As of right now it's on 58% Trump, 40% Clinton.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1142 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    Probability is a bitch. When I saw yesterday that it was on about 67:33 for Clinton I reflected that rolling a dice and expecting it not to come up 1 or 2 is statistically correct but not something I'd bet my entire nation on willingly.

    However, even now, a 40% chance is still a shot. I'll watch it to the death before making sure I've hoarded enough gas and canned food.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens,

    Trump has won Florida.

    Time to pull out of all defense ties with the USA. I used to support the American alliance as the most rational realpolitik choice, but I'll be buggered if I'll agree to us supporting a fascist.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    I guess what I'm saying is that if someone offered you a loaded gun and told you it had two bullets in the chambers, and then spun it, and you put it to your head, just because your brains are on the floor is not a reason to dispute that there were, in fact, only 2 bullets in there. You just had bad luck.

    If the predictions had been more like 95:5, I'd be seriously doubting the methodology, thinking something very unlikely just happened. But 2:1 is really not that bad a chance for the underdog.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Those probability numbers were based (obviously) on the polls, which simply missed - or misread - millions of voters.

    A familiar story, and one that is constantly repeated, as per the definition of madness. Followed by an inquest, followed by ... nothing changing.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1332 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to simon g,

    Those probability numbers were based (obviously) on the polls, which simply missed – or misread – millions of voters.

    First brexit now this - polling is completely broken in the post MSM age.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2217 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    which simply missed – or misread – millions of voters

    I would guess it's the first of those options more than the second. The number of undecideds was high even until the last minute.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    Fuck. Wisconsin. How can anyone have trusted a state that elected Scott Walker. 3 times. Want to stop looking, can't stop looking ...

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2110 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to simon g,

    ...which simply missed – or misread – millions of voters.

    The Reality TV (Apprentice) fans decided to vote....?

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    Thinking they were supposed to vote someone off ?

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1944 posts Report Reply

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