Hard News: The Letter
443 Responses
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Labour’s problem is it has a high profile coterie of other-generation has-beens and dinosaurs in safe electoral seats who dominate the public perception of the party.
Generational change was the stalking horse for the Douglas 'reforms', which the Party's left happily traded for the nuclear free policy. Like any party, Labour has always attracted career opportunists. It's the emerging Prebbles like Hipkins that are the real worry.
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nzlemming, in reply to
In case any Chchch folk missed Murray Horton’s CAFCA Talk at the WEA on Wednesday, new dates have been announced for the suburbs in July:
Who’s Running The Show?
And In Whose Interests?Phonetically speaking, that's so appropriate.
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nzlemming, in reply to
E-Day isn’t about the politicians, and the pollsters and the media. It’s about the electors.
This.
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nzlemming, in reply to
Also people don’t seem to be buying this- but some of the comments are classic trademe.
Does the book discuss the time Key swam with the Dolphins off Maui?
Yes but the dolphins don't remember it. -
BenWilson, in reply to
Well, it’s not so I struggle to see the point of the whole exercise
We have nothing better to go on, and want to know the answer, for any number of reasons? Because one can adjust strategy to optimize the chance of winning? Because one might want to know if it's worth putting their vote in one or other place due to the chance that a threshold might make it count for nothing? Because we might have investments that will be affected by the outcome? Because it bolsters a case that it has some form of roughly known support? Because we want to know what our compatriots think?
It can actually be quite informative. The huff and puff by each party about how much support they have for their views, and by everyone else for that matter, is dragged at least somewhat towards reality by data, however imperfect.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Thanks Rob ,the comments are fantastic. On par with the washing Machine. :)
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The Herald seems determined to find a story in this:
Aucklander Paul Davison, QC, is heading a team of advisers for Liu reviewing the property developer's records following the comments of David Cunliffe this week.
The Weekend Herald understands this includes more than 30 photographs taken over 18 months linking Liu to Labour, including a fundraiser at an Auckland restaurant and a trip to China, where he hosted a Cabinet minister in 2007.
Liu is also seeking to retrieve financial records held in China.
And Fran O'Sullivan, in not copying that discipline of Key's she writes about, offers this:
The Prime Minister wasn't the direct source of the Liu "revelations" (I use that word advisedly as many of the more hyperbolic Liu claims have since proved to be a mirage).
Herald investigative journalist Jared Savage, who broke the story which led to Williamson's resignation, had already sought Liu's immigration file under the Official Information Act. But it is instructive in that it was sources close to National who shopped the story of Liu's anonymous donations to Labour elsewhere after Woodhouse had accessed the file.
National has not played a straight bat on this story.
So how long is this going to drag out for?
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BenWilson, in reply to
Considering that O'Sullivan and Savage are in the same stable, it's interesting that she points the finger at National. Either she's guessing (and not talking to Savage) or she knows something. I think the latter is more likely here.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
it’s interesting that she points the finger at National.
I think she has finally been embarrassed enough to think about her credibility, you can only go down so far before your career is irretrievable. It is one thing towing the company line for the sake of your job but for a journalist that can be a one way ticket to oblivion.
I particularly liked the comment that “Thoughtful” people are questioning the veracity of the story as told, “wondering whether it was indeed Labour that had proven tricky — as National’s meme invites us to believe — or the governing party.”.
She could have added "with the help of this piece of tabloid trash I find myself whoring for" but small steps eh?. -
I must say the TradeMe Q+A for the Xion Qui tome is, possibly, more informative than the Herald when it comes to the public's perception of our PM. I was tempted to ask if the book was signed by a Helen Clark but the poor chap selling it seems to have been up all night answering questions.
Good on him eh?. -
Steve Barnes, in reply to
I do think we could do worse than have a serious discussion about the roll polling, especially the reporting of polls, plays in our political culture.
Indeed, it all seems a bit chicken and egg don't it?
But here is a thing...Mr Joyce urged delegates to take no comfort from recent polls showing National with a strong lead over other parties.
He said comparing the average of the main opinion polls now with 84 days out from the last election, National is now running about two points behind.Its almost like he is saying "The polls are rigged to make us look good, don't believe it" something I have suspected for years but if Steven Joyce says so then...
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Chris Waugh, in reply to
Its almost like he is saying “The polls are rigged to make us look good, don’t believe it” something I have suspected for years but if Steven Joyce says so then…
I saw that and I thought something similar, if slightly less conspiratorial sounding.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
if slightly less conspiratorial sounding.
Yes, it doesn't pay to mention conspiracy, you get labeled as a "theorist" and these days any theory is dismissed as unfounded rubbish.
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Chris Waugh, in reply to
You wrote "the polls are rigged to make us look good", which implies that somebody is deliberately designing them in such a way that they overstate National support. What does seem to be clear is that they are reported in such a way that makes it seem National is going to waltz back into the Beehive.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
You wrote “the polls are rigged to make us look good”, which implies that somebody is deliberately designing them in such a way that they overstate National support.
Yes I did and yes it does.
I may, of course, be mistaken but that is a rare occurrence. I will never forget the time when I thought I had made a mistake and realised that I hadn't and had to admit that I was wrong, a humbling experience. -
Mr Mark, in reply to
I hope you all saw this interesting post about that mysterious undecided tribe at The Political Scientist
Hate to be self-promotional here (well, no, actually that's not true - I quite like it), but can I just point out that - as Puddleglum at The Political Scientist very generously made clear - his/her post was inspired by a post of mine here...http://sub-z-p.blogspot.co.nz/ as well as by one or two comments I made on The Standard a few weeks ago. Have a look at some of the stats I set-out in the top post at Sub-Zero politics ( A Leap into the Unknown ) but also, in particular, click on the link I provide near the top of that post (the link is in blue immediately below: Fairfax-Ipsos Poll - February, May and June 2014 in red). (sorry, due to probs with my laptop - I can't get on to blogger at the moment, so can't link directly to the page).
It became clear to me a few months ago that while the Fairfax/Stuff-Ipsos Polls consistently put the Nats and the broader Right well ahead of the Left Bloc poll after poll (with all the associated 'Labour is Dog-Tucker' hyperbole from Fairfax journos that we've come to expect over the years), the elephant in the room was the Mood for a Change of Government measurement. In February, according to this Fairfax-Ipsos measurement, the Country was essentially evenly split on desire for a change of government (Yes, Change Government 47%, No, Keep Present Government 48%). Since then, the proportion supporting the status quo has remained the same (48%), but there's been a slight move from 'Yes" (down 3 points to 44%) into 'Don't Know' (up 3 to 8%).
But that's still a reasonably evenly split Country in a poll that made headlines (and generated all kinds of heated analysis) for suggesting National was soaring to unprecedented heights, with Labour supposedly plummeting to an all-time low.
Do the math and you'll find that, among Undecideds and Likely Non-Voters (both excluded from party support stats), those favouring a change of government massively out-number those supporting the status- quo. That's certainly true for the Fairfax-Ipsos at least.
Unfortunately, Undecideds disproportionately become Non-Voters. Vicious Circle.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
Its almost like he is saying “The polls are rigged to make us look good, don’t believe it” something I have suspected for years but if Steven Joyce says so then…
Oh, come on Steve. Sounds precisely like exactly the same message National was sending at the last election year conference: “Take a deep breath, don’t be complacent and stay focused on the only poll that’s going to deliver this Government a third term.”
Which sounds exactly what Joyce should be saying to an election year party conference. I also have no doubts that unless the polls start moving sharply in Labour's favour, every speaker at that conference is going to be ringing equally unsurprising variations on “bugger the pollsters with a well-lubricated horse cock, we’re in this to win it.”
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
“bugger the pollsters with a well-lubricated horse cock, we’re in this to win it.”
I was almost with you up until that last bit, Craig, you worry me sometimes but then I remember you are a National supporter so...
;-) -
Sacha, in reply to
Which sounds exactly what Joyce should be saying to an election year party conference.
Yep. They're even setting electorate-level targets as bodies rather than percentages.
"It is not enough to get a certain percentage of whoever turns out," Mr Joyce said. "It's important to get as many as possible people to turn out."
The percentage of votes in the electorate was not as important as the number of people who actually voted."
Mr Joyce urged delegates to take no comfort from recent polls showing National with a strong lead over other parties.
He said comparing the average of the main opinion polls now with 84 days out from the last election, National is now running about two points behind.
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Unless the Herald has suddenly found evidence for a 100k bottle of wine and 150k in donations, then that story remains unraveled. And even if they have found rock solid evidence for that, they didn't have it when they ran it. So attacking their critics is still lame.
Funny how they complain of shooting the messenger, when the messenger happens to be wearing a brightly coloured crosshair jersey and has been caught leaking troop movements to the opposing force.
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Chris Waugh, in reply to
They’re even setting electorate-level targets as bodies rather than percentages.
I'm curious. What's the rationale behind that? Surely the seats in parliament are divvied up by the percentages of those who voted, so why the sudden interest in boosting absolute numbers?
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Sacha, in reply to
Joyce knows about the numbers including undecideds being closer than media is telling the rest of us. Getting each electorate to focus on an absolute target is insurance against low turnout which might shift percentages enough to win or lose at national level.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
I don't know about the first sentence there, Sacha, but the math on the rest is hardly that complicated. I'm in one of the safest National electorates in the country, and anyone who thinks Maggie Barry is going to lose this seat need to step away from the P pipe, the magic 'shrooms and the three martini liquid breakfasts.
But there's the other column to think about.
Three years ago Barry managed to increase both National's party vote and the party vote share on a very slightly higher turn out. Winning 62% of the party vote on a 50% turnout... not so useful. It's really not rocket science that National can't take North Sore for granted any more than Labour can Mangere.
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Festerville City...
North Sore
is that part of the Suppurating City?
How the new suburb names trip off the tongue:
Aarrgh Hill, Blockhead Bay, Bowelmorale, Ellersleaze, Greyer Lynn, Hernia Bay, Missing Bay, Mourninginside, Mount Roadkills, Painmure, Poisonby, St Hellions, Wartview, Wetsmear - even Down town sucks...Not some horror Hollywood,
it's ... Auckwood(land).;- )
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