Hard News: Prospects
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Steve has been drinking?
and it's having absolutely no effect whatsoever. Craig, It has little to do with cheek, more to do with being misguided. We shall, no doubt, be discussing the fallout from this in the months to come. Enjoy your trip to the Bridgeway. I played a fisherman in "Peter Grimes" at school, had to have a lusty wench sit on my knee for hours of rehearsals. I liked that.
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At the after-opening soiree, a couple of young (16 and 17) members of the show were saying how wonderful it is that Helen's gone. They seemed to miss the significance of TB occurring in the resident population at the end of National's last term. They don't even remember the last time, but they're happy to see the back of Helen.
Kinda like the anecdote earlier about the would-be Rodders voter.
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Keri, what's your take on Okeroa losing?
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Craig,
I saw and heard Teddy Tahu Rhodes sing beautifully this evening with the NZSO at the Michael Fowler Centre. Hope you enjoy the Peter Grimes, which is less my cup of tea than the Handel and Mozart that Rhodes was singing this evening.
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Craig, I'm hearing unhappiness, but not really bitterness - and certainly not the rude boo-ing your partyfolk gave tonight at the mention of the demoness Helen.
Sacha: I heard applause, but I was watching Three and guess that audio was digitally altered by Duncan Garner sucking up for a job as John Key's chief arse-licker.
I'd respectfully suggest you know fuckall about South Island politics, paticularly Kai Tahu politics.
Islander: I respectfully -- no, with NO RESPECT WHATSOEVER -- suggest you know fuck nothing about me or my partner. And I do know enough about Kai Tahu that I would not walk onto any marae, into any hui or whare, and make insulting, stupid and obnoxiously ignorant generalisations about Kai Tahu being "greedy", "stupid" or "bad people". Well, not unless I wanted to go away with a radical ego reduction.
Yeah, we do get the government we deserve. We get the government that is elected by the citizens of the country in a free, fair and orderly election. We change our government at the ballot box, not by whoever can get the support of the military.
And if you knew a fucking thing about me, dear, you'd know that I've not really liked the outcome more often than not. I'd like to think, however, that I've respect our democracy and the will of my fellow citizens.
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And can we all agree, without reservations, that it is a very very good thing Winston Peters and New Zealand First are gone? I'm certainly rather pleased that Chris Hipkins -- who I knew, and got on with, when we were both at Vic -- won Rimutaka and (along with National candidate Richard Whiteside) gave Ron Mark the kind of spanking most of us would have to pay for.
I don't know if Chris would welcome the tribute from this quarter, but I always found him a congenial and thoughtful presence in any political debate. And I'm sure he will continue to be so as a Member of Parliament.
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This is a serious question (and I am drunk so it may make no sense or be totally irrelevent),
but who came up with the 5% threshold and why (it doesn't seem fair when party vote seems far more important than electorate votes and yet we reward electorate votes ahead of party votes) ???
Another question, does anybody know.... IF Peters won Tauranga, OR if NZ First hit 5.0% would Labour then have had enough to govern?
NZ First ideas appear to be more popular than those of ACTs and yet we get ACT with 5 in parliament and NZ First with 0.
Although I do feel like dancing naked round the hosue at the prospect of no Peters or Marks in the next parliament.
ahh, yes, I remmber fondly dancing naked outside (apart from some gumboots) at the last election.
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Craig, I may sometimes disagree with your conclusions but I applaud your integrity - in the same way I respected Key disowning Peters even if it risked losing.
Us kiwis take it for granted but I felt honoured today to be part of a fair and easy process. We really do need to grasp the international market advantage of being one of the least corrupt countries in the world.
Actually Obama made today feel more special for me after a frankly un-engaging local campaign. Saw a brief mention tonight on teh news that the White house was built by slaves. He visits on Monday..
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Craig- get a grip. When i have I made any comment about you or your partner? Let alone the kind of crap statements you are spewing?
I know very little about you except you've had an alchohol problem (so have many of my family) and you are on meds for depression (so are several of my family.)
E hoa, I dont know your tribe or *anything* other about you except you're Tory, gay. very literate, funny in wordplay, bawdy, and intemperate. -
Actually, I'd have to admit being similarly mystified over any comments being made about your man.
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Bugger, i think this $@@##!#$ machine has swallowed my earlier reply to Sacha-
Okeroa lost because he was a lazy incumbent. I go to quite a few Kai Tahu gatherings. Her just wasnt there for the ones I attended.
I am saddened that the South has gone away from an old promise...
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So I take it that Katene can't honour that promise?
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i guess we still have a lot of sheep in this country,(albeit some are now cows) Helen is a hard act to follow for anyone and I suspect Key hasn't understood that. I am saddened that after 9 years of building a respected country for its citizens and, on the world stage, we have just given National carte blanche. One step forward two steps back. It is just how I felt when John Banks got back in the Auckland City Council. Same shit, different day :( (my jaw is dropping)
On that note, who's keeping count on the new flip/flops? We got one already. :) -
He's from the north - I dont know whether he is Ratana or not... and *that* is the problen. He hasnt ever had a real *oresence* among us ordinary Kai Tahu- and he cretainly hasnt worked on giving one.
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Craig- get a grip. When i have I made any comment about you or your partner?
Well, Islander, believe it or not, we both voted two ticks for National. Which might put us in a minority in these parts, but please take it as read that we are not "stupid", "greedy" or "bad guys". We take voting seriously, and cast ours in good faith.
I've also never claimed any particular expertise in South Island politics -- entirely the wrong end of the wrong island for that -- or Kai Tahu, a tribe with which my connections are weak. But the Kai Tahu I know will argue their point from sunrise to dawn the next day, but I'd never make the mistake of ever treating them as dishonourable people. Because they're not, whether I agree with them or not.
But like the outcome or not, isn't it bloody wonderful that over 2.3 million people voted today. And thanks to the efforts of our electoral agencies -- which have a well-deserved international reputation for their political independence and integrity -- and the fifteen thousand or so election workers, that process was an orderly, free, fair and credible general election. Sure, we didn't have American style scenes of hundreds of people lined up at six o'clock on a wet winter morning. Or people casting votes with tears in their eyes; or 95 year old women voting for the very first time and so on. But I don't think what New Zealand did yesterday was any the less remarkable. Sacha is right -- we can take that for granted.
And I mentioned Clark because I was enormously moved by human empathy -- and she could have been graceless as a Ted Heath or Mark Latham, but chose not to do so. (I expect any memoirs to be a damn sight less cringe-inducing and vile, and significantly better written, than Latham's 'Diaries'.)
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please take it as read that we are not "stupid", "greedy" or "bad guys
Well, stupid, debatable (but its's late so not now, greedy, perhaps not, or bad?, I would suggest gullible, and I take comfort that you will learn.
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I was really okay with voting after someone assured me that that I wouldn't turn into a little orange person.
More seriously I had a student ask me how he should vote and I was able to say - " think carefully and vote according to your beliefs". I guess that's something you get to say in a functioning (albeit imperfect democracy).
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Craig- I'm still not sure where your earlier outburst came from but i totally agree that "Kai Tahu will argue" etc. - man, I am a Kai Tahu!
I know us!But - I concur and tautoko all your commentary after "But like the outcome or not..."
I dont like the outcome but yes, our own didnt let us down- all our own - kia ora tatao katoa- -
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When my students find out I'm from New Zealand they tell me how much they love Flight of the Conchords. I have friends who know more about Flying Nun than I do, and colleagues who, over the past few years, have waxed lyrical about the quality of New Zealand public institutions and our principled stand against the Iraq War. And whenever I hear people talk about all these wonderful things, I always stop them, and tell them that it rests on three great qualities: Our ingenuity, our scenery, and our capacity to produce food.
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And we won't have Winston Peters to kick around anymore. Which, when you put it this way, sounds like less of a good thing than it actually is.
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That is a great article Richard. Eight years down the track, reading it almost makes you forget that "The Onion" is supposed to be satire.
Now I'm off to my own personal darkness, still sober after all these beers. Goodnight, god bless and god fuckin' 'elp us. -
And I mentioned Clark because I was enormously moved by human empathy
Heh. All I did was cry like a big girl.
By my rough calculations and guesses (which have thus far been wildly inaccurate), the specials are heavy in the po' seats, and will shift a seat to Labour (it's currently .37 Nat rounding uup, .36 Lab rounding down).
Greens are .26 down maybe get that over Labs, left either way, Act are safe at .78 up, Jim .27 down wont climb quite enough, Dunne .14 down. The rounding is favoring the right by 1, but shouldn't hold that way. Māori .87 up, but no special votes in the Māori seats shown?
With no threshold, Bill would get in, as would Larry Baldoc. I've always suggested a modified initial divisor though, 1.4 rather than 1, which would keep both out by 1000+ votes. Kiwi party did well, really. Winston would get ...
Grn 7.86 = 8
Pro 1.14 = 1
Lab 41.28 = 41
NZF 5.14 = 5
Māo 2.74 = 3+2
Ufy 1.09 = 1
Nat 55.56 = 56
Act 4.55 = 562 NAU, 60 Other. No change in government, but they'd need Dunne. Specials very unlikely to change that.
If Bill and Larry also got in, they'd steal from Nat and Act (which is a bit random, but there you go). Bill would do the decent thing and constantly abstain (61-60) leaving us with another small Christian element to ban teh gays in parliament. Hmm. Stable enough, and at least leaves National looking more like a 45% vote catcher than a 50% one.
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It would seem that New Zealand's long national nightmare of peace of prosperity is finally over.
That Onion article is a classic. So funny at the time, and in retrospect... ouch.
Ironically (or not) I woke up to hear the NZ election results being reported on NPR this morning in more or less the same terms. The correspondent (from the BBC, that central purveyor of all news Commonwealth) all but said "New Zealand voters, who have rocks in their heads..." I'll see if I can find the link.
Off to watch the Key/Clark speeches on YouTube. There will be no cupcakes today.
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And no, I'm not happy that Winston's gone. 88 thousand people's voices said he should stay and on a day when we're all supposed to be equal, that should be enough. 10% of our new parliament has less support.
The threshold distorts the left/right choice of the populace, distorts people's real preferences at the ballot, and is only really there to kill parties until we're back to three or maybe four.
How long 'till the greens go? How long will the Nats keep saving Act? Why aren't people allowed to vote Outdoor Rec, ALCP, Christian, Alliance, ...?
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