Hard News: Five further thoughts
446 Responses
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Greg Dawson, in reply to
I was thinking that might be a way to manage both the voter impact of implementation, and insulation from the necessary market adjustment tied to continued investment. like you said, interesting.
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bmk,
On the talk of a moratorium on public polling prior to an election. I personally hate the idea.
I think the more freedom in terms of what the press can report the better. I enjoy and find the polling interesting.
But lastly and most importantly it helps people make informed decisions about who to vote for. If there are no published polls and you want to vote for a party that isn't one of the main two you may well be too scared to vote in case your vote is wasted by your party not making the threshold. I know I wouldn't vote for a small party if I didn't know they were going to clear the 5% threshold.
I think if the left is going to do well again it needs to stop blaming the media, the polls etc and find out what people actually want.
That's what I found most infuriating about Cunliffe's speech. It came across as a victory speech. No acknowledgement that they were wrong, that the public had spoken, that they would listen, that they would learn. Instead we got more of the same and the idea that people want a change despite a million voting for National and another million not voting at all.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
But they have no one to blame but themselves.
I don’t like word on this thread saying Labour did a deal with National. That taints Labour in my book. It’s also understandable now that Willow Prime (she’s Labour) was missing in action up in the North. I guess Labour were concentrating on Davis.
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bmk,
Living in the north I got no impression of a deal between Labour and National. What I heard was a lot of respect for Kelvin Davis and a huge amount of dis-illusionment with Hone.
Hone can't claim he was outspent either. For every Kelvin billboard I saw, there were at least two for Hone. Plus big internet mana leaflet drops.
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Dismal Soyanz, in reply to
I also think it’s a good idea but it shouldn’t be viewed as a source of revenue – more as a way of changing investment behaviour.
Ben and I kicked this around a bit here. It's not a given that behaviour will change but personally I quite like the idea that homeowners stop seeing the housing market as a one-way bet.
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mark taslov, in reply to
I never liked Kim is he’s a shifty bastard who has previous convictions Ignore what they say, watch what they do.
Yeah, those Jews, oops sorry Germans, oops sorry immigrants, shifty bastards. spy on them, arrest them, take their shit.
Na ZiBut your probably right Craig:
He didn’t deliver, by any rational metric, and it’s a tad rich to complain that people noticed.
Right to the heart of the matter, that’s the real issue, that’s the one that needs the media beat up and your obedient chanting, Kim Dot Com didn’t deliver. Not that the PM pissed independence and neutrality down the river and had full knowledge that New Zealand was sending 70 armed paramilitary to traumatise a family, and arrest a resident and his colleagues on trumped up charges issued 12,000km away. Say it loud!
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
the idea that homeowners stop seeing the housing market as a one-way bet
What price/benefit is put on simply living in your own home, post mortgage...
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Greg Dawson, in reply to
I'd love to know, but my wife and I have been planning on a thirty percent value drop. I may yet be proved overly optimistic. Ah the joys of buying a house when you're too young for the party years.
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mark taslov, in reply to
And some people try to say there was no, or not really very much at all, xenophobia in the opposition to Internet Mana?
Heh, at least moving from The Peoples Republic of China, your family aren’t going to have to make any an adjustment for things like media bias, corruption, unaccountability, mass surveillance, police brutality etc
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
For every Kelvin billboard I saw, there were at least two for Hone. Plus big internet mana leaflet drops.
So you don't believe that there was a Winston National and Labour effort 2 days out? Winston did call for Maori to back Davis which goes against his never backing other Parties but Was there a deal done with National and Labour or not?
Who started that rumour then? I'd like to know the truth. -
mark taslov, in reply to
That evidence is now, theoretically, going thru the appropriate authentication process.
Ah, yes the “appropriate authentication process”. The “appropriate authentication process” is grand, especially the “appropriate authentication process” that spies on New Zealanders, the “appropriate authentication process” that commands 70 armed police to arrest with an invalid warrant, the “appropriate authentication process” which discharges the GCSB for spying on New Zealanders, The “appropriate authentication process” that requisitions our possessions as evidence, the “appropriate authentication process” that freezes our assets, The “appropriate authentication process” which empowers the Government not to reveal the names of the other 88 spied on, The “appropriate authentication process” that has ignored iPCA findings time and time again, the “appropriate authentication process” that allows alleged rapists to leave the country but tows the line of the American dream.
Your “appropriate authentication process” is no longer appropriate Steven.
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Chris Waugh, in reply to
Heh, at least moving from The Peoples Republic of China, your family aren’t going to have to make any an adjustment for things like media bias, corruption, unaccountability, mass surveillance, police brutality etc
Yeah, the way things are going, I'm wondering if we'll even notice the difference.
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mark taslov, in reply to
I think you need to chill for a wee bit.
Of course you do, and as a moderate New Zealander you’re quite right. Anyone who thinks this is morally wrong just needs to chill for a wee bit, look the other way, turn a blind eye, shut out the noise, shut down the noise, head into sand, cross fingers, Hail Marys, hand on heart, drink the koolaid, sip the cup, cover the ears, cover the eyes, walk the walk, lie down, burn the bridge, roll over, touch your toes, reap what’s sown, board the gravy train, and flick off the confounded pest.
Quite evidently, it’s no longer acceptable to stand up to New Zealanders being spied on, raped, beaten, unjustly maligned and point out how far to shitsville they’ve let the country fall. Not in any meaningful way. That just wouldn’t be appropriate. March with the beast steven, march with the beast.
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Dismal Soyanz, in reply to
What price/benefit is put on simply living in your own home, post mortgage…
I remember reading an article a few years back that said the average time a household spent in one house was only 5 years. Churn and earn, folks, churn and earn.
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linger, in reply to
That’s the figure I saw too – but note that that average residence time includes rentals, which almost certainly change somewhat more frequently than self-owned homes.
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Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
going thru the appropriate authentication process
Well, we have been told so many times that the PM is "authentic", that I expect that tells us what the appropriate authentication process is going to reveal.
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brin murray, in reply to
I’m not convinced the foreignness is a *huge* part of it… I think the bigger part is his questionable moral/criminal history (and present) and how conspicuously he was trying to influence the election
I think the point would be, not that Dotcom would not have been targeted in any case, but that xenophobia is recognized as an effective and acceptable way to do that.
As for his criminal present - it depends on your definition of criminality. Laws are only ever as good as the people who make them, and national have already started changing ours (GCSB) to fit with the American agenda.
Dotcom is simply competition to American media interests, which are global media interests. My understanding is he hasn't even broken copyright law, but that others can use Upload to do so. Corporates don't want to chase hundreds of millions of individual (poor) downloaders around the globe. It's all about the money: John Key is afraid not to give America what it wants. There is no real moral disapprobation here. The blacker he can paint Dotcom now, the less pusillanimous it will seem when he hands America his head on a plate. -
brin murray, in reply to
what Mana said, before the election, is a huge sum of money and people got dumped on the wider region two days out from the polls, busses and signs and radio and newspaper adds, after Mana had spent theirs and couldn’t respond. That it came from all of New Zealand First, National, and Labour. Every single bit of it focused on killing the Mana party with bullshit attack slogans that they had no chance to respond to.
What is interesting to me - bigger picture person here, not that interested in the internecine in-the-trenches- caucus stuff - is where Cunliffe was coming from. I don't buy that he simply doesn't like minority far left parties very much. National were whooping and punching the air when Hone lost: you would think Cunliffe would enjoy having people beside him who can discomfit Key in a way he himself has signally failed to do. I also don't buy that he did the clever thing and dissociated himself from a party which he knew the voters would reject - unless he was in on the media hate campaign before it happened, unlikely.
Cunliffe is as frightened of Dotcom as John Key. Last week talking to Katherine Ryan he failed to correct her time and again when she insisted that Key had exonerated himself with his cortex revelations: Cunliffe's either inconceivably dim and did not pay attention at the moment of truth, or he was perfectly happy to let that disinformation slide into the public consciousness. I suspect the latter. The only reason I can think of for the pure antipathy he has consistently shown here, is that he knows that if he does get in, he will be the one at the top with full knowledge that mass surveillance is going on (if he doesn't know already), and he has no intention of taking on America over five eyes. Similarly it will be him handing Dotcom over to America, and that's awkward to do to a former ally.
Or - last explanation and least likely, but kind of funny - he knows Dotcom is a whole lot smarter than him (Key certainly does) and they both find that scary.
But in one way that backfired for Dotcom. One and a half hours of solid well-argued cogently presented convincing evidence is too much for the soundbite generation, or maybe even the average person. What they heard were the 3news headlines next day, 'Dotcom bellyflop etc.' All you had to do was listen people.... -
bmk, in reply to
So you don't believe that there was a Winston National and Labour effort 2 days out? Winston did call for Maori to back Davis which goes against his never backing other Parties but Was there a deal done with National and Labour or not?
As far as I'm aware of there was no deal done between National and Labour and besides I think any previous Hone voters who National told to vote for Kelvin would probably only reinforce their vote for Hone. The part about Winston is true and had a huge impact, probably the decisive one. In all the Northland electorates NZ First got a huge vote - often nearly equal to the Labour party. I think the number of voters who voted party NZ First and candidate Kelvin Davis will probably make the difference.
But I see nothing nefarious in this. Winston knows Northland and knows Kelvin Davis and in his opinion (whether you agree with it or not) he would honestly believe that Kelvin Davis would do more to help the region and be the better person for the job.
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llew40, in reply to
Blairism will destroy that party, and I mean that literally.
Jose Pagani's vision of a grand coalition with National must be the only reason she continues to drag out the rancid carcass of Blair's legacy
Blair is/was all kind of odious things and failed/corrupted promise incarnate, but he was also very electable. And after the misery of a generation of Thatcherism (and Majorism) electability counted more than anything at the time. My read of the election results here is that like it or not the electorate have rejected the Labour parties leftward shift. One can argue that this is only because the message wasnt delivered with enough clarity or the messenger was a bit shit. Or one could argue that the people didnt like the message. So does Labour double-down or look for a centrist leader?
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Rob Stowell, in reply to
My read of the election results here is that like it or not the electorate have rejected the Labour parties leftward shift.
I don't think so. Public polling tends to reveal a majority acceptance of much of Labour's policy. Labour/we-the-left definitely need more data-driven campaigning. But I reckon it's much more about how it's framed than the content being unpalatable.
Plus: Labour (again, sigh) seem to be divided internally. That's electoral poison. -
Rob Stowell, in reply to
any previous Hone voters who National told to vote for Kelvin
My jaw dropped (biggest surprise of the night!) when Tau Henare revealed he'd voted for Hone every time until now.
The real issue here is not that National and NZ First jumped in. It's that Labour failed yet again to think strategically. So we have NZ Future and ACT MPs (and probably ministers- wtf re: Seymour) who took almost none of National's party vote.
But no IMP, no Mana - who Labour could have counted on to vote for almost anything Labour wanted, and to eg float legislation they'd like to see entertained, but don't want their name on, a la ACT/National.
It's stupid. Should be deeply embarrassing to Labour when the ACT party applaud a Labour candidate winning. -
Rob Stowell, in reply to
Cunliffe is as frightened of Dotcom as John Key.
There's something in this. Labour sure as hell weren't campaigning on an end to 5-eyes. They've gone along with it whenever they've been in govt. I'm not even sure it's something they could change, without self-destructing.
And that's a worry. -
Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Russell Norman has skirted that also.5 eyes is just an extension of what has always been around our Govt. It's just that it's now more invasive than ever.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Labour sure as hell weren’t campaigning on an end to 5-eyes. They’ve gone along with it whenever they’ve been in govt. I’m not even sure it’s something they could change, without self-destructing.
And that’s a worry.I know it's a different issue, but Labour have been at best lukewarm on their opposition to the TPPA. In fact Phil Goff's practically a cheerleader.
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