Hard News: Earning Confidence
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The bogus polls which relate to the debate have given us a textbook example of why all self selected polls are not likely to be representative of the general population -- no matter how big the sample size. And if one of them were representative of the general population which one might it be? We have no way of knowing.
http://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/08/28/bogus-clicky-polls/
Note also that based on the variation in results, Thomas Lumley says the accuracy equates to a properly conducted random sample of about 40 people. That my be just a quick back of the envelope calculation, but I think you get the idea of just how bogus self selected polls can be.
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Bogus or not, I think polls can effect people's perception of a party. Just like one or two emotive words in a headline and article can, if used over time be used to create a perception and attitude which is hard to shake.
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I see you were referring specifically to the 'debate polls'. I was meaning the general election polls. But yes those polls - specifically and arguably the most prominent one - the tvnz poll which was posted immediately after the 'debate when many 'on the fencers' would have been making up there minds, was absurd. Since it was going from the start of the 'debate, and had a large gap in the middle, it hardly seemed worth posting it at all as any kind of gauge of who actually 'won'.
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Herald says Facebookers mentioned Cunliffe slightly more than Key.
Story also says what minor parties want you to think about the debate, but does not ask the medium party who was slagged by the PM. Just as well they ran their own event..
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Yes but what does Facebook mean. Look at that funny Cunliffe he has such puppy dog eyes.
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Sacha, in reply to
cmon, he's so a cat.
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I cannot claim to be a dog person but I see him as one of those types of dogs whose faces seem to fold in on itself with hangy downy folds of skin. I'm going with dog.
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izogi, in reply to
It was a pointless addition to the debate, along with the dry ice. While TVNZ used their best efforts to turn the event into some sort of game show, the text poll was a bad joke.
But.. but… How can I possibly know what to think if TVNZ hadn’t provided a simplified interpretation of what other people thought???
I have to decide who I’m voting for somehow!
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N.Z political T.V Debates are historically cringeworthy. Possibly outdated, like billboards in the move towards more modern politics.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Mike Hosking will help you. He is your frend.
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Yes. Izogi I am not sure if you are critisising me but I AM claiming what you seek to satirize -that sadly people Do look for conformation from these idiots to tell them what they think. It is horrible and exasperating and baffling but I think that is the case - although I AM now slightly inebreiated. So maybe I AM unreliable. But anyhow that's why apparently pointless, meaningless things can in fact be important. Toast.
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izogi, in reply to
I am not sure if you are critisising me
Not at all. The debate seems pointless if the intent is for viewers to all be influenced by what other people thought instead of by what they actually heard. Having a poll that's fundamentally flawed and meaningless just makes it worse. Either party could probably have achieved better results by rigging the poll result than by actually arguing, and maybe they tried.
But yeah. It fits with the MSM's absurd need to impose the whole 'politics is a race' metaphor because it's probably easier to discuss who's ahead than to discuss policies. Also with TV's obsession of including the audience just for the hell of it, because they can, even in ways that add no value.
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
heavy petting…
I’m going with dog.
If we are opening the personification-of-animal-looks-or-traits floodgates, I’d offer up PM Key as a classic mustelidae
and MP Collins acts ‘Minx’ but is mostly cattus cum cremor
Gerry Brownlee* is all Badger (and thereby genetically linked to Key)
surrounded by a cast of inbred feral polecats, skunks and wolverine…
…and a whale**Animal farm this ain’t
- it’s way more Island of Dr Moreau
*Gerry Brownlee has a long letter to the editor in today’s Press (sat 30 aug) congratulating himself for the LURP – it must be close to the election.**I merely note in relation to Nationals ‘rowlocking’ good times TV ad – to whale means to beat or hit, an example might be ’they whaled the water with their paddles’
…and inversely ‘Dirty Politics’ might be part of a whole new specialist subset of literature: ‘Hagerography’ – transcribing the lives and actions of ‘non-saints’.
(as opposed to hagiography, natch):- )
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Nora Leggs, in reply to
Animal farm this ain’t
but closely related….. Mr Leggs had to put this nifty slogan in context for me, I thought it was just an astute description of Mr Key’s attitude.
There’s a lot of these little cartoons around town at the moment
(hope this doesn't count as some sort of party promotional thing)
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I just took
this Vote Compass 2014
Found it quite helpful in discovering where I am on the political Spectrum. Thought it was quite a good personal indicator.
214,000 odd have taken it too so cant be all bad. -
Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
I thought it was just an astute description of Mr Key’s attitude.
Ha, either you are correct or Mr leggs thinks Key got to you. ;)
It's a goodie tho' , would love to see the others you are spotting around town. -
linger, in reply to
Island of Dr Moreau
something the Greens wouldn't have a bar of
(mmm, chocolate meaty goodness) -
Nora Leggs, in reply to
one more then
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Even the blood doesn’t trickle down with this one, Key to a tee Siphonaptera. more precisely, Pulex irritans.
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Angela Hart, in reply to
wonderful, hope they keep popping up and spread
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Well this is a depressing little thread. So many self appointed cognscenti slandering the voting public for being sheep like and easily led. If that were true why is it political experts of any allegiance claim their job is so demanding and they have such a need to continually pat themselves on the back for a spin well done?
Take todays 'revelations' which have resulted in a minister's 'resignation'. The Slater slug may only have been back in country 48 hours in order to source the most apt email, but you can be sure that the criteria for which email is the right the email were established with much to and fro-ing over the last fortnight or even longer.
Those criteria: that the issue which brought Collins undone be both completely unconnected with any of the revelations in Nicky Hager's book, and that there be no real evidence connecting Collins to the alleged conspiracy she was dismissed for, are so transparently of help to the National Party long term that they would have taken quite some refining. There is the added frisson of embarrassing the NZ Herald whose loyalty seemed to be in question a little more than a week ago. Remember double is the rule. The Herald journo will be feeling that sting for years to come.
The whole thing is ridiculous. Key refused to sack Collins for several acts of corrupt behaviour that had her dabs all over em, but he flicks her for an issue where she is involved 3rd hand & circumspectly?
C'mon give me a break.If the Natz get back in; sometime early in the new year a commission of inquiry is going to find the charge of interfering in Feeley's dismissal unproven and the minister for Oravida will be back in cabinet.
Not because kiwis are stupid but because there is no real separation of object between the political spinners and the commercial media.
All those complicit who hang around sites like this or even worse the incestuous little 'twitterverse' that has evolved around NZ politics, will throw their hands in the air in outrage if and when angry NZers are forced to resort to political violence because all other options have been closed off - entirely as a result of bourgeois complacency. -
SteveH, in reply to
Those criteria: that the issue which brought Collins undone be both completely unconnected with any of the revelations in Nicky Hager’s book, and that there be no real evidence connecting Collins to the alleged conspiracy she was dismissed for, are so transparently of help to the National Party long term that they would have taken quite some refining. There is the added frisson of embarrassing the NZ Herald whose loyalty seemed to be in question a little more than a week ago. Remember double is the rule. The Herald journo will be feeling that sting for years to come.
The whole thing is ridiculous. Key refused to sack Collins for several acts of corrupt behaviour that had her dabs all over em, but he flicks her for an issue where she is involved 3rd hand & circumspectly?
C’mon give me a break.I think you might be right about this.
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yup, there's truth here. Such deviousness demands continued secrecy for success. Bring out the bright lights and strong independent journalists, we need the 4th estate to work properly.
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C'mon give me a break.
What do you want? Another last chance? A story about how this is just a distraction for the Monday papers so people aren't talking about ... what?
Good on Judith Collins for stepping down in the face of serious allegations of abusing her position. Or the people who answered the polls that said it was time, and also a good thing for everyone's office gossip next week, however it works at National.
Poor them, the victim of a smear campaign of all things. Nice of that young Mr. Slater to keep all those emails for so many years though, all those screenshots of conversations, about all the smear campaigns, all that power he held over so many very powerful people's heads for fear he might leak it ... and then someone goes and does it for him while he's not even here to gloat. It's all so tragic. Or comedic. Either way, really.
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Key is opening the door for Crushed already should she come out smelling like shit. I suspect the average voter wont be happy about that. I'd like to think most haven't got Alzheimers yet. No one has taken any responsibility for any thing and still Hager gets the blame. Unfuckingbelievable !
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