Public Address | Cafe | Hard News: Earning Confidence

James George

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 22:02:44 +1200

It is moderately interesting to speculate on Peters' role in this. He sent a very clear message last week that Key had to choose between a government with him in it or one with Collins in it.
That was the public position anyhow, who knows what else has gone down…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 19:12:47 +1200

Even Patrick Gower is essentially saying this.

Tell you what tho', I find it's disgusting (after watching a Puk Henry ad with an interview with Colin Craig) that the smaller Parties have to accept an opportunity for airtime by being interviewed by that disgusting man. How insulting to suggest he…

Steve Parks

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 19:04:36 +1200

The whole thing is ridiculous. Key refused to sack Collins for several acts of corrupt behaviour that had her dabs all over em, but he flicks her for an issue where she is involved 3rd hand & circumspectly?
C’mon give me a break.

It’s not like this hasn’t been suggested by…

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 18:49:23 +1200

Key is opening the door for Crushed already should she come out smelling like shit. I suspect the average voter wont be happy about that. I'd like to think most haven't got Alzheimers yet. No one has taken any responsibility for any thing and still Hager gets the blame. Unfuckingbelievable…

tussock

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 18:30:20 +1200

C'mon give me a break.
What do you want? Another last chance? A story about how this is just a distraction for the Monday papers so people aren't talking about ... what?

Good on Judith Collins for stepping down in the face of serious allegations of abusing her position. Or…

Angela Hart

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 16:51:30 +1200

yup, there's truth here. Such deviousness demands continued secrecy for success. Bring out the bright lights and strong independent journalists, we need the 4th estate to work properly.

SteveH

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 16:40:53 +1200

Those criteria: that the issue which brought Collins undone be both completely unconnected with any of the revelations in Nicky Hager’s book, and that there be no real evidence connecting Collins to the alleged conspiracy she was dismissed for, are so transparently of help to the National Party long term…

James George

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 15:38:16 +1200

Well this is a depressing little thread. So many self appointed cognscenti slandering the voting public for being sheep like and easily led. If that were true why is it political experts of any allegiance claim their job is so demanding and they have such a need to continually pat…

Angela Hart

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 15:22:06 +1200

wonderful, hope they keep popping up and spread

Steve Barnes

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 11:34:06 +1200

Even the blood doesn’t trickle down with this one, Key to a tee Siphonaptera. more precisely, Pulex irritans.

Nora Leggs

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 10:41:53 +1200

one more then

linger

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 10:16:12 +1200

Island of Dr Moreausomething the Greens wouldn't have a bar of
(mmm, chocolate meaty goodness)

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 09:53:37 +1200

I thought it was just an astute description of Mr Key’s attitude.

Ha, either you are correct or Mr leggs thinks Key got to you. ;)
It's a goodie tho' , would love to see the others you are spotting around town.

Sofie Bribiesca

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 09:42:16 +1200

I just took
this Vote Compass 2014
Found it quite helpful in discovering where I am on the political Spectrum. Thought it was quite a good personal indicator.
214,000 odd have taken it too so cant be all bad.

Nora Leggs

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 09:35:53 +1200

Animal farm this ain’t

but closely related….. Mr Leggs had to put this nifty slogan in context for me, I thought it was just an astute description of Mr Key’s attitude.

There’s a lot of these little cartoons around town at the moment

(hope this doesn't count as some sort…

Ian Dalziel

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 08:07:18 +1200

heavy petting…
I’m going with dog.
If we are opening the personification-of-animal-looks-or-traits floodgates, I’d offer up PM Key as a classic mustelidae
and MP Collins acts ‘Minx’ but is mostly cattus cum cremor
Gerry Brownlee* is all Badger (and thereby genetically linked to Key)
surrounded by a cast of inbred…

izogi

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 07:19:46 +1200

I am not sure if you are critisising me

Not at all. The debate seems pointless if the intent is for viewers to all be influenced by what other people thought instead of by what they actually heard. Having a poll that's fundamentally flawed and meaningless just makes it worse.…

Simon Sjorn

Sat, 30 Aug 2014 00:46:32 +1200

Yes. Izogi I am not sure if you are critisising me but I AM claiming what you seek to satirize -that sadly people Do look for conformation from these idiots to tell them what they think. It is horrible and exasperating and baffling but I think that is the case…

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 22:56:13 +1200

Mike Hosking will help you. He is your frend.

Jack Harrison

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 22:35:34 +1200

N.Z political T.V Debates are historically cringeworthy. Possibly outdated, like billboards in the move towards more modern politics.

izogi

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 21:50:09 +1200

It was a pointless addition to the debate, along with the dry ice. While TVNZ used their best efforts to turn the event into some sort of game show, the text poll was a bad joke.

But.. but… How can I possibly know what to think if TVNZ hadn’t provided…

Simon Sjorn

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 20:08:54 +1200

I cannot claim to be a dog person but I see him as one of those types of dogs whose faces seem to fold in on itself with hangy downy folds of skin. I'm going with dog.

Sacha

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 19:57:25 +1200

cmon, he's so a cat.

Simon Sjorn

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 19:33:56 +1200

Yes but what does Facebook mean. Look at that funny Cunliffe he has such puppy dog eyes.

Sacha

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 18:09:10 +1200

Herald says Facebookers mentioned Cunliffe slightly more than Key.

Story also says what minor parties want you to think about the debate, but does not ask the medium party who was slagged by the PM. Just as well they ran their own event..

Simon Sjorn

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 17:23:22 +1200

I see you were referring specifically to the 'debate polls'. I was meaning the general election polls. But yes those polls – specifically and arguably the most prominent one – the tvnz poll which was posted immediately after the 'debate when many 'on the fencers' would have been making up…

Simon Sjorn

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 17:13:03 +1200

Bogus or not, I think polls can effect people's perception of a party. Just like one or two emotive words in a headline and article can, if used over time be used to create a perception and attitude which is hard to shake.

steve black

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 17:03:09 +1200

The bogus polls which relate to the debate have given us a textbook example of why all self selected polls are not likely to be representative of the general population — no matter how big the sample size. And if one of them were representative of the general population which…

Simon Sjorn

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 16:25:54 +1200

I know polls are but a small sample but I think voters like to back, almost apparently more than good policies, someone who is a winner. Labour has been beaten down and beaten up for so long that voters still seem to lack faith in what is in front of…

Hebe

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 12:07:42 +1200

Yep. It's about the kind of country we all want to live in: whatever it takes as the motto, or one with communal vision and responsibility.

I would be appalled at any party, anywhere, using these tactics and supporting the use of them in any way.

Hebe

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 12:03:19 +1200

Two impressions – not words – stood out in the debate. David Cunliffe physically took over, moving into Key's space, defining his own and looking centred and confident, without overbearing. That's a big change. He came across on screen for the first time as he does in person.

The other…

Sacha

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 11:57:35 +1200

Lucy Lawless comes to similar conclusions.

If we do not require integrity in our representatives, we are basically ceding control of our policymakers.
...
This is our chance to reinforce our reputation as the least corrupt nation on earth. The Dirty Politics allegations are thankfully not on a par with the…

Sacha

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 11:51:48 +1200

I blogged about last night including some useful supporting links. Scroll to the bottom to watch the 15m clip of Hager’s masterful speech the previous day, even if you ignore the rest.

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 11:33:16 +1200

I thought the structure was odd: they seemed to spend an inordinate amount of time circling around land/immigration/investment.

I thought that was a bit odd too, because Winston's usual Yellow Peril dog-whistle bullshit aside is it really that big an issue for anyone? Still, I think Cunliffe (to his credit)…

Alfie

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 11:09:02 +1200

By focusing on the cost of the text-in / website 'poll', people are missing its true idiocy. The 'poll' asked 'who won the debate' (past tense), but people were able to vote right from the BEGINNING. So many did so that the online voting system crashed by the FIRST ad…

Sacha

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 10:35:27 +1200

I wonder if Hosking was just told to let them go at each other

Cunliffe says Hosking told them to "parry". Then the guy bitches about them doing exactly that in one of his smug ZB columns.

Dismal Soyanz

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 10:22:44 +1200

Steven, Steven, Steven. When are are going to realise that an opportunity to make money always trumps public interest?

Nora Leggs

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 09:33:55 +1200

Afterwards joined the crowds wandering around the wonderful Lux light sculpture displays along the Wellington waterfront and along the little lanes. …. It’s on till Sunday night so those who can should go.

and pop some pictures up on the old Capture, Dark Arts thread – for election campaign 'light…

Gavin White

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 09:26:22 +1200

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 09:26:05 +1200

an aside...
Some were activated by screaming...
Key was right on one thing in the debate, when he said there will be people screaming at their TV sets – mostly about him and Hosking though!

william blake

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 09:06:57 +1200

Some were activated by screaming

Nice analogy as to how I feel about politicians at the moment; the need to shriek to get the lights to come on.

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:21:09 +1200

Quote of the morning!
‘Judas’ Collins on morning report:
"Susie you may be looking at the Parliamentary Manual,
but lets look at the facts…"

…what a woman!

Russell Brown

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:05:14 +1200

I lay the blame on both Hosking and whoever set the format with ad breaks. Hosking’s inability to stop them talking over each other so much and the short time available per answer gave little incentive to dwell on specifics.

I thought the structure was odd: they seemed to spend…

Russell Brown

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:01:51 +1200

Nah, that dog’s not going to hunt. You just don’t get to have it both ways, Sofie – perhaps I’m naive, but I expect party leaders to be able to clearly articulate the details of their own policy especially when (let’s be honest) they’re hardly missing an opportunity to call…

Hilary Stace

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:00:56 +1200

What happened to the worm? The Herald provided an interactive dial thing but not sure who monitored or who could see it. It was hard work watching the live streams from both TVNZ and the Green room and tapping the dial all on one computer screen!

Afterwards joined the crowds…

Russell Brown

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:57:42 +1200

Saw bits and pieces, while sitting around with our hosts and the television on the background. Seems to me both Key and Cunliffe should be reasonably happy about how it turned out – nobody came up with a soundbite gaffe that will haunt them for the rest of the campaign.…

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:41:27 +1200

Hosking’s inability to stop them talking over each other so much and the short time available per answer gave little incentive to dwell on specifics.

Fair point — I really don't know how politicians think talking over each other reads but it bugs the hell out of me. It all…

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:35:58 +1200

The detail he didn’t have on housing would require actually being in Government.

Nah, that dog’s not going to hunt. You just don’t get to have it both ways, Sofie – perhaps I’m naive, but I expect party leaders to be able to clearly articulate the details of their own…

Dismal Soyanz

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:28:42 +1200

That said: There were patches when they both seemed rather… vague on the details of their own policies. Really not an option, guys.

I lay the blame on both Hosking and whoever set the format with ad breaks. Hosking's inability to stop them talking over each other so much and…

Sofie Bribiesca

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:25:17 +1200

The worst of it was the dry ice . WTF? Cunliffe won. The detail he didn't have on housing would require actually being in Government. Key has bin there 6 years and he had no detail of any policy bar the deposit for middle income couples which was announced last…

Dismal Soyanz

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:22:04 +1200

Once again, Harold's reporting of poll results leaves a lot to be desired:

And while a slim majority believe the saturation media coverage of the claims in Nicky Hager's book was justified, a slightly larger majority say the furore was either unjustified or that it's time to move on.

Given the…

Craig Ranapia

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 07:16:34 +1200

I thought Cunliffe kept his cool and Key looked bitter and drained.

Meh, might be a bit of projection going on there? I really don’t want to harsh the holiday buzz by looking at the usual suspects, but I’m sure plenty of folks are going on about Cunliffe looking desperate…

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 06:59:56 +1200

...and all that too.

Ian Dalziel

Fri, 29 Aug 2014 06:33:03 +1200

Mike Hosking seemed impartial enough considering ....
...considering he got enough barbs and digs in.
Hosking can't moderate to save himself, let alone the country!

and Key keeps on telling us what Labour will do, it is so patronising and passive aggressive and such a waste of air and airtime,…

Sacha

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 23:13:04 +1200

cheers. fascinating process to watch, and I lucked into chatting with a feisty and forthright Lucy Lawless off-camera during the show. She reckoned Key looked like his mind was already on his next international job..

Russell Brown

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 22:22:38 +1200

Cool to put a face to Jolisa and to see you again Sacha. Nice work Russell and co.

Thanks. It was was very seat-of-the-pants, but it worked pretty well. It helped that the director, Matt Barrett, was our director for most of Media7 and Media3, so we kind of knew…

Craig Ranapia

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 21:55:08 +1200

I hereby retract all comments I made during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, all smug and mocking, along the lines of “Only in America …”

It would be fair to point out that unlike the United States, we don't directly elect our executive branch of government.…

chris

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 20:51:16 +1200

Great stuff! I was impressed by Cunliffe, Mike Hosking seemed impartial enough considering his circumstances, but it’s just noise when people are talking over one another, perhaps someone a bit more authoritative could rein that in more ably.

Joint Deputy Prime Ministers?! Indicative of the more progressive approach. I’m trying…

Russell Brown

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 16:40:48 +1200

Of course, the results show no significant change in Labour’s support from last week. Indeed, only the change in the Internet Mana support is near being statistically significant.

Yes. I've been thinking about that.

Brodie Davis

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 15:52:26 +1200

Just from reading the PDF from HorizonResearch I now understand where most of nationals support comes from.

The age tables are mostly telling, with them sitting in low 30% votes up to the 55-64yr bracket where they jump to 40% and up to 48% in the 65-74 bracket.

So like…

Some Stats

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 14:37:54 +1200

The Herald poll is up already. Labour slumps further.

Of course, the results show no significant change in Labour's support from last week. Indeed, only the change in the Internet Mana support is near being statistically significant.

simon g

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 14:17:21 +1200

"Mr Key's personal popularity is up 3 points to 67.8 per cent."

I hereby retract all comments I made during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, all smug and mocking, along the lines of "Only in America ..."

Russell Brown

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 14:01:39 +1200

The Herald poll is up already. Labour slumps further. This is just getting cruel.

Brodie Davis

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 13:28:08 +1200

Has anyone setup a youtubedoubler style page for this? to stream both tvnz and greenroom at the same time on the same screen?

Some Stats

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:59:18 +1200

If p is the proportion and n is the sample size, the margin of error is 2*sqrt(p*(1-p)/n). So at 3% (that is p = 0.03) in a poll of 1000 people (n = 1000), you get a margin of error of about 1.1%.

Stats Chat has a table…

Timmy H

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:58:26 +1200

Thanks guys.

Pete Sime

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:54:55 +1200

Don't know about geoblocking, you might have to use Hola but the One News twitter account said it would stream from http://tvnz.co.nz/news

Russell Brown

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:52:23 +1200

Is the main debate being streamed at all? I’m in the US at the mo so also hopefully not geoblocked.

Yes. Not geoblocked and available here.

Timmy H

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:37:52 +1200

Is the main debate being streamed at all? I'm in the US at the mo so also hopefully not geoblocked.

Myles Thomas

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:23:16 +1200

Margin of error is correct at the 50% point, it drops relative to distance from 50%, so when a party polls around 3-5% margin for error would be less than .5%. Yet another way reporters fail to correctly report polls.

Shaun Lott

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:20:33 +1200

And remember that the margin of error is bigger than the changes in the numbers. Which makes the apparent changes rather more 'noise' than 'signal'.

Myles Thomas

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:15:27 +1200

Guy Williams is moderating the Auckland Broadcasting Debate on Sunday at 6.30pm – Pioneer Women's Hall, High St, AK CBD

I'm expecting it to be a bit of a doozy as we have two new extra guests on the panel – Colin Craig and Laila Harre as well as broadcasting…

Ben Sinclair

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:13:39 +1200

Tonight’s TVNZ leaders’ debate is probably David Cunliffe’s best chance to change the public narrative around his party and more so – let’s be frank – around himself.
He's facing an uphill battle given the moderator.

simon g

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:04:59 +1200

When considering polls, I think it's a useful exercise to compare current predictions with past performance.

At the same stage of the last election campaign, a Herald DigiPoll had National 7% higher than the 47% they got in the election.

To be fair, they weren't alone in overestimating National's support (and…

Paul Williams

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 11:00:47 +1200

Even with unhelpful boundary changes, Jacinda Ardern could win Auckland Central if Denise Roche can communicate to Green voters that she neither wants or needs their electorate votes.

I sincerely hope they do. They did so in Wellington Central in 2008 when Grant Robertson first won the seat (by a…

Russell Brown

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 10:58:43 +1200

That would be an upset, given that Chris Tremain is quitting Parliament at this election! National’s candidate for Napier is Wayne Walford (which is, apparently, a real name!)

Yup, Wayne v Garth. I've already fixed that one.

Andrew Geddis

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 10:55:22 +1200

although it’s not out of the question that McVicar could pull enough votes from Tremain to let Nash squeak through.

That would be an upset, given that Chris Tremain is quitting Parliament at this election! National's candidate for Napier is Wayne Walford (which is, apparently, a real name!)

Pete Sime

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 10:46:56 +1200

There's a new poll(pdf) from Horizon looking specifically at Dirty Politics and it says in the executive summary:

While voting intention shifts from poll to poll, National’s level of retention this year of those who said they intended to cast their party vote for the National Party at the next…

Public Address

Thu, 28 Aug 2014 10:46:56 +1200

Discussion from blog post.