Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Watching World

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  • Paul Williams, in reply to David Hood,

    I think most of the technical issues are solvable, the main issues to me are "the tyranny of the majority" issues (though it is argued how much a problem this would be under a direct democracy system).

    Unlike the tyranny of the voters of Epsom?

    I understand, but need to do more investigation, that some English counties and Scotish regions devoled arrangements allowing residents more direct input into resource allocations (relative to the House of Commons I mean). Certainly, getting sustained and informed participation is a challenge, and there'll be much more besides, I guess the interesting point of difference is the, as Carne says, taking back of 'agency'. Not electing a representative to govern, but to be directly engaged in governance (beyond petitions and submissions etc).

    Anyway, this might be straying into a threadjack, it was the tech angle that distracted me.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Andre Alessi, in reply to Kyle Matthews,

    Exciting American Presidential elections where it's not clear what's going to happen come election day is a recent phenomena.

    Perhaps not coincidentally, this has coincided with reduced voter participation and a consequent need from campaigns (and pundits) to frame every race as close to encourage people to vote. People are less likely to think their own vote is meaningless in a race that is already decided.

    Devonport, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 864 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Paul Williams,

    Uk local authorities (counties, districts, cities) have roughly the same amount of autonomy as NZ ones. I believe that some/all of them are education providers, but health is run nationally, for instance. They don't have the kind of independent competence that US municipalities do.

    Scotland and Wales have devolved assemblies, which can legislate in certain areas and in the case of Scotland, levy taxes.

    All of those bodies, down to parish councils, operate almost entirely on a representative model. There have been very few referenda in the UK, and (I think) all have been on constitutional arrangements, not policy.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    I'm kinda transfixed by the Chris Christie thing today. New Jersey's Republican governor, who has attended 100+ Springsteen shows but has never been acknowledged by The Boss, on account of his politics, got to meet Bruce after Sunday night's fundraising concert -- and got a hug. The next day Obama calls him and puts Springsteen on the line.

    Christie, no doubt shattered by the effort of trying to put his smashed-up state back together, is genuinely moved. The wingnut-o-sphere proceeds to cover him in pure hate for being a human being.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    I see fivethirtyeight are now at 92.5% chance of an Obama victory with a "most likely" result of 315.3 Electoral College votes.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to David Hood,

    I see fivethirtyeight are now at 92.5% chance of an Obama victory with a “most likely” result of 315.3 Electoral College votes.

    The closer to the election, the more the polls (snapshots of an ever-moving present) become snapshots of election day. Plus a small but definite trend towards Obama in the last week-10 days.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2110 posts Report Reply

  • George Darroch,

    The Noise circles my camp - teeth bared, haunches raised. I toss the final Gallup poll onto the fire. Dawn approaches.

    '
    I'm well behind on this one, but parody account FiveThirtyNate is killing it handsomely.

    WLG • Since Nov 2006 • 2264 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams, in reply to Russell Brown,

    New Jersey's Republican governor, who has attended 100+ Springsteen shows but has never been acknowledged by The Boss, on account of his politics, got to meet Bruce after Sunday night's fundraising concert -- and got a hug.

    I'm loving this story, sure for partisan reasons, but mostly for human ones.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • Islander, in reply to George Darroch,

    I’m well behind on this one, but parody account FiveThirtyNate is killing it handsome

    O! Quirky fun! Love it-

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    A good who's who article about the poll stats people.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Pete,

    Early uncorroborated signs from Florida are that the GOP/Tea Party attempts to disenfranchise the queuing voters are leading to a surge amongst black and latinos supporting Obama

    Democrats extend Florida early voting lead wapo.st/YL0VCQ

    The story that the Republicans may be telling themselves after they lose is that Sandy interrupted Romney's late surge. Grasping at straws in the wind?
    Hopefully this will be the end of the tea party eedjits



    TWO TERMS, BITCHES!!

    Since Apr 2008 • 106 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    US elections (federal and state) are governed partly by federal law ( Bush v Gore , obviously), and partly by state law. Where it's a federal issue, states often have choices about how they implement the federal law.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • FletcherB, in reply to Sacha,

    winning party in each state runs the following election



    Actually that’s wrong – think it’s the one currently in govt at state level. Sorry.

    David hood has already addressed how it's not this simple....

    But I'm suffering from a logic fail issue... Surely you've just re-iterated the point you appeared to be debating/questioning?

    How would the party in govt NOT be the one that won the last election for that state?

    West Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 893 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX, in reply to Pete,

    Actually it is going to be a conservative wetdream with all the swing states going to Romney.

    http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The wingnut-o-sphere proceeds to cover him in pure hate for being a human being.

    Yeah, it’s been particularly revolting seeing Christie accused of opportunistically spite-fucking Romney because he was passed over for the Vice-Presidential nomination. Hey, just ignore that was doing a pretty good job as a Romney surrogate pre-Sandy, I know this might be really hard for the usual suspects to grasp, but they really need to stop driving away people like Christie (an extremely popular GOP governor in a deep-blue state with approval ratings both Obama & Romney would kill for). And you know what -- if Christie decides to run for a second-term next year, deciding to behave like a functional adult instead of a party hack hasn't done him any harm. With anyone.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to FletcherB,

    State govt gets to run federal election. Depends who won last state election, not federal one. Parties the same.

    In Auckland, it would be like a Council dominated by C&R (Nat/Act) or City Vision (Lab/Grn) getting to decide how our national general election happens in the region.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    For my money, the single best thing they could do to ease up the logistics of US elections (apart from making vote-by-mail widely possible, like it has been in Oregon for fourteen years without any noticeable signs of the apocalypse) is separate out the elections for state government/judges/environmental boards/dogcatchers from the federal-level elections. Even discounting often lengthy ballot questions/referenda, it's quite usual to be presented with a ballot asking you to make decisions in ten or more races. That's going to lengthen waiting times no matter how well-run the election.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2105 posts Report Reply

  • Ben Austin,

    Hi Lucy,

    I take it you are living in the US. What is the mood like if so? Have you been past any voting booths so far?

    London • Since Nov 2006 • 1025 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    I've kicked off an election-day thread.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Russell Brown,

    So, how many are rigged then? Only if you notice it and can prove it you get to call the police or an 0800 number? I am not surprised that it prefers Romney to Obama when the same or another machine is being brushed off as a oncer and if their past performance is anything to go by.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart, in reply to Ben Austin,

    I take it you are living in the US. What is the mood like if so? Have you been past any voting booths so far?

    Apparently turnout here (in our area of Mass) is crazy - really long lines, running out of parking spaces, etc, and this was at 8.30 in the morning. The local bet is that it's the senate race driving the turnout - Warren has very strong support here, as you'd expect in a college area. There's nothing else on the ballot that would get people out like that, unless it's the medical marijuana ballot question (referendum).

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2105 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    That voting machine has been taken offline.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    US elections (federal and state) are governed partly by federal law ( Bush v Gore , obviously)

    Bush v. Gore did not involve a question of federal law.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3207 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Russell Brown,

    That voting machine has been taken offline.

    .....recalibrated and back online as your link updates.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

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