Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Prospects

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  • Paul Williams,

    @Robyn: me too.

    I don't begrudge the Nat's their win. I'm thankful for the last nine years (of course I have some worries for the next three years). I'm pleased however, that Labour's renewal is well advanced. 12 new members, some exceptional, will ensure the Opposition is energetic.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • millsy,

    Hi all, long time reader, first time poster.

    Well, I have been famous for my so-called rants over the past few years, especially since 2004/2005. I dropped off a little after that, but life kinda got in the way...

    Anyway, I just want to share my thoughts on what happened. Firstly, I am fearful greatly for this nation. National alone, or even with Peter Dunne, I could live with. Barely. Its what ACT will extract out of National that worries me. I saw Roger Douglas' rant on TV3 last night and though, here we go its going to be a nasty few years. Then you have plutocrats like Boscowen, who seems to think that multi-millionaires giving cash to political parties in exchange for policy concessions somehow equates to freedom of speech. And you also have David Garrett, who if he had his way, will turn New Zealand into a Clockwork Orange style police state. The Maori Party I wouldnt trust that much either....to me its all about the brown ripping off the brown. All this talk about unbundling to me is just about handing buckets of taxpayer funds to the Maori elite to provide a substandard service to poor Maori who quite frankly deserve better than patronisation. I really hope I am proved wrong, but if you take the economic crisis into account, we are going to see Roger-nomics and Ruthanasia part 2.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    On Winston, like him or loathe him, he does bring forth issues that really need to be debated, such as immigration, and the level of foriegn control over our economy. And it has to be conceded that he has delivered on a few of his promises over the course of his time on the political scene. He has also been a competent foriegn minister,establishing a good relationship with the USA. I actually belive that the reason behind his concession and bowing out is because John Key might have promised him the role of Ambassador to the USA if National won the election behind the scenes. I might be wrong, and it is simply because he realised that his time had come to do. I dont have any strong feelings about him either way, I think he has been both a blessing and a curse, and his departure will be a loss. I would expect to see NZF dissolve and bleed off its membership to Labour and National (Ron Mark I think will end up on a National party ticket in 2011).

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Labour looks to have been left in good shape for the next 3 years. There has been a lot of young people coming in, and a lot of them have progressive left views, as well as a smattering of centerists. Also looks to be a broad base of people, from unionists like Carol Beaumont, to centerist businesspeople like Shane Jones. Labour has firmly closed the door on Rogernomics, and might just tack slightly more to the left, indeed as it had done over the past 18 months or so...Helen Clark knew what she was doing when she stepped down, she wanted a fast bloodless transition in the leadership, rather than one dragged out till 2009/2010..A new Labour leadership team will take some time out to have a break over summer, and then get stuck into taking on National in the new year. Labour are going to go all out to make sure that National only last one term. I am picking that Phill Goff will be leader (he has the experience if nothing else), Maryan Street will be deputy, and Cunliffe will be finance spokesperson. I think a lot of the old gaurd such as Mallard who have been liabilites will be shunted off to the back bench and out the door in 2011.

    I dont think that Helen and Michael will go their full term. Ill give them both 18 months. (I wonder if Andrew Little will contest Mt Albert after Helen goes?)

    As for Jim Anderton, the guy has spent 15 years rotting on the opposition benches. He says that he intends to serve out his full term, but some how I doubt it. He will be gone in 18 months time.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The smacking parties (Kiwi, Family and so on) fizzilled, which can only be good. It goes to show really, when push comes to shove smacking isnt actually a big deal.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Its also a good result for MMP, as we have a clear indication of what sort of result we are going to have. Without the uncertainty of previous elections, I think that this result is going to give MMP a better reputation among the voters, and if a referendum is held like it has been suggested, I think MMP will stay, if only by a small margin

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It would be fair to say that the Maori Party is here to stay, and they might be able get all 7 seats in future, and pick up a few party votes as well...without HC, Labour may be more receptive to the idea of working with the Maori Party in future. And despite what the right may think, Maori party, especially those on lower imcomes or from a working class backgrounds go for Labour. Their system of owning land and the like is collective, In Maoridom it is generally about sharing.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The right won this election, fair and square, no doubt about that. John Key has run a good campaign, selling himself as the ordinary bloke, the man of the people, His wife is beautiful, and his children are well mannered, he is an ordinary family man, as opposed to the dowdy childless and emotionless Helen Clark. He has presented himself well on television, and lets face it, he holds himself well. Hes going to have a hell of a time handling Roger Douglas though...

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    And the last word is with the Greens. I look forward to seeing them go from strength to strength in the future, and I hope that Kennedy Graham gets in on the specials, that would give them a strong voice.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It was always going to be a big ask for a 4th term, and I think the mood for change had been ingrained. There is an old saying that governments lose elections, and I think that Labour lost this election more than labour won it. I think people got sick of Helen and swapped her for John. Plus there is all that stuff about greed and that which I am not really going to go into there..

    Well then, that is that....hopefully Russell, National wont cancel your show on TV7 and replace it with some reality show about bachelorttes getting extreme makeovers or something....

    New Plymouth • Since Nov 2007 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • millsy,

    When I say " dowdy childless and emotionless Helen Clark." I mean that it what a lot of people perceive her to be.

    While I do not once for a moment think that she is the greatest prime minister NZ has had, I would have to say she is up there. I think my biggest regret is that she went to UF in 2002 rather than the greens. I think things would have panned out very differently.

    New Plymouth • Since Nov 2007 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    huff huff huff...

    just caught up on the posts I missed last night/this morning.

    Craig:

    BY the way folks, if you're expecting me to counter bitter, nasty and patronising with equally bitter and nasty gloating, I'll be happy to oblige with the following...

    Have a nice morning nursing the hangover and pissing on the hundreds of thousands of your fellow citizens who had the unmitigated cheek to vote in a manner which you, in your infinite wisdom, do not approve of.

    Fixed it for you!


    (On the other hand) Islander:

    I am a reserved and non-public person...

    ...who made abrasive statements on a public forum, you do realise?

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1165 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    [Richard:] It would seem that New Zealand's long national nightmare of peace of prosperity is finally over.

    Nice.

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1165 posts Report Reply

  • Robyn Gallagher,

    It says that our main assets are food production, scenery and Kiwi ingenuity. That's why you'll never see a farmer on a bike.

    Ah, the old food, scenery and ingenuity speech. Where did the ideas in that come from? Some New Zealand tourism promo film from the '80s?

    In other news, JohnKey.co.nz still declares him to be "Leader of the Opposition".

    Considering how quickly the Democrats got the Change.gov website up and running, it's unacceptable that Key's website hasn't been updated. It's the interweb not a fax.

    Raglan • Since Nov 2006 • 1946 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Litterick,

    Ah, the old food, scenery and ingenuity speech. Where did the ideas in that come from? Some New Zealand tourism promo film from the '80s?

    The future is beige.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1000 posts Report Reply

  • Jake Pollock,

    Where did the ideas in that come from? Some New Zealand tourism promo film from the '80s?

    I think it came from a poster on Murray Hewitt's wall.

    Raumati South • Since Nov 2006 • 489 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace,

    Michael Cullen is stepping down from the deputy leadership of the LP according to the radio news. Sorry to lose these two great intellects from our country's leadership. I hope he and Helen find time to write their memoirs.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3218 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    @Paul

    I don't begrudge the Nat's their win. I'm thankful for the last nine years (of course I have some worries for the next three years). I'm pleased however, that Labour's renewal is well advanced. 12 new members, some exceptional, will ensure the Opposition is energetic.

    Quite. I'll post on this in the morning, but I hardly think the centre-left is bereft. As I've said all along, I'd like to have seen some of that new Labour talent enter three years ago, but the potential for refreshment and renewal is real. And, frankly, they needed refreshment and renewal whatever happened in the vote.

    And it certainly was helpful for Sir Roger to scare the piss out of everyone in his election-night interview. That new Act caucus is a chamber of horrors.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22839 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Michael Cullen is stepping down from the deputy leadership of the LP according to the radio news. Sorry to lose these two great intellects from our country's leadership. I hope he and Helen find time to write their memoirs.

    He'll be missed more if he decides he'd like a more sensible workload: Labour have leaned heavily on Cullen.

    But, again: refreshment and renewal.

    Cullen himself said it was "time to move on from a leadership position as the party rebuilds".

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22839 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    Ah, the old food, scenery and ingenuity speech.

    Yes indeed, the old speech.
    All three have another connection; they are all about "Brand New Zealand"

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4414 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew E,

    It says that our main assets are food production, scenery and Kiwi ingenuity.

    Anybody noticing the similarity with 'Our main weapons are...'?

    Key, Hide and Dunne - nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.

    174.77 x 41.28 • Since Sep 2008 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew E,

    Or is that Sue, Grabbit and Runne from Private Eye fame?

    174.77 x 41.28 • Since Sep 2008 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov,

    I'm left wondering if that smacking bill which so divided the nation, had been saved for a referendum, would this result be any different.

    probably not...but.... divisiveness is divisiveness and sometimes in the interests of political self preservation, it's just better letting the people decide.

    I'm hoping to see more referendums in NZ. Hoping Key's emphasis on technology and the internet will give NZ a greater share and stake in the
    reality of what NZ represents.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • philipmatthews,

    This has probably been said, but the key (sorry) thing is that this is not a victory for the right, but a victory for the centre. I think it was Steven Joyce on Agenda, certainly someone from the Nats, who said that this wasn't won in the provinces -- which the Nats already owned -- but in the suburbs of Auckland and Chch. In electorates like Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, or Wigram and Port Hills, you saw Labour MPs comfortably re-elected (call Jim Anderton Labour for the purposes of this) but a National party vote coming in surprisingly high. In Roskill, National's party vote was higher than Labour's; in Wigram, National's party vote was within hundreds of Labour's. Clearly, people were splitting their vote, one red and one blue, and I'd be interested to know if that's ever happened like this before. And so it's nothing other than a vote for the exact middle. Definitely not a vote for Act, and esp not for Douglas. If Act exerts any influence, then Key will disappoint a lot of people who thought nothing would be very different under this kinder, gentler National government.

    Christchurch • Since Nov 2007 • 656 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie,

    Shep:

    There should be a bloody great kick up the bum to the Labour Party Central Body who've inflicted Burns on Christchurch Central.
    They passed over the best candidate for their Wellington insider and almost lost it.

    Forgive me if I'm a little slow here, who's this best candidate you mention?

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Williams,

    Good god, up until Saturday morning we were being told that there was serious economic crisis that necessitated new leadership but watching Campbell Live the new PM's not talking about the reform agenda... we're having family homes movies. This interview's not got a happy ending has it.

    Sydney • Since Nov 2006 • 2273 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    It's all very exiting, I've been reading the National party policies, now there the Government proper.

    Im a bit intrigued as to how the literacy and numeracy crusade is actually going to workout, without the extra bureaucrats. But more so, how the ingenious students are going to develop there "kiwi ingenuity skills" while being humiliated by endless reading writing and numeracy evaluations.

    As I've mentioned here before, I didn't attempt school certificate because I am dyslexic. This is not an illness, nor is it a learning disability. It simply means, reading and writing is not my strength. My real strength, my contribution to society "Brand New Zealand" if you like, is in my finding alternative method's of learning then applying my knowledge, its called, I n n o v a t i o n... Mr Key.

    But there is a bit of better than Labor educational policy, in regard, special education, I think . Lets hope it's implemented, before the sensible:) penal policy, sucks the resources.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4414 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    call Jim Anderton Labour for the purposes of this

    A quick hand-poll at the Young Labour Christchurch election party ("Be honest, you all voted for Jim, didn't you?") demonstrated that this opinion was rather widely held.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2105 posts Report Reply

  • Blake Monkley,

    In electorates like Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, or Wigram and Port Hills, you saw Labour MPs comfortably re-elected (call Jim Anderton Labour for the purposes of this) but a National party vote coming in surprisingly high. In Roskill, National's party vote was higher than Labour's; in Wigram, National's party vote was within hundreds of Labour's. Clearly, people were splitting their vote, one red and one blue

    Indeed,I still can't get my head around the way some people voted like that.

    Auckland • Since Jul 2008 • 215 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Rodney Hide and John Key together now on Sunday, revealing that their policies and plans are very different.

    Er, shouldn't this interview / debate have happened on TV One before we voted?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1330 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew E,

    I still can't get my head around the way some people voted like that.

    It's easier if you see Labour and National as centrist parties with only minor variation on how they want to run the show.

    MMP has enabled those who no longer feel comfortable putting more radical views inside the tent of those two parties to move outside (or be forced out) and present their own offering.

    So, if you want some policies based on ideology, vote Green, Progressive or Act. If you slightly varying flavours of 'this is how we're going to manage a capitalist mixed economy', vote Labour or National. Ergo, easy to rationalise splitting your vote between Labour and National. Less easy to rationalise a split between Progressives and National, Green and National, Act and Green etc.

    174.77 x 41.28 • Since Sep 2008 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • Raymond A Francis,

    Well it has been reported to me (and we see the numbers tomorrow) that at my voting place some voters voted for the national candidate (she was the one that got sucked into banning water) and then gave their party vote to the Greens..go figure that!

    45' South • Since Nov 2006 • 577 posts Report Reply

  • Ian MacKay,

    The effect of National Testing in the USA is to dampen the innovative teaching and learning. Some exclude other aspects to concentrate on teaching to the tests. USA and Britain envy our targeted testing' learning. There is plenty of disaster evidence around National Testing standards.
    Wonder if Private Schools will be included?

    Bleheim • Since Nov 2006 • 498 posts Report Reply

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