Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Media Take: The selling of the campaign

136 Responses

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  • BenWilson,

    I also think that Labour is likely to be aware of this. They're big enough that they get strong statistical analysis done. The question of the coalition is not how Labour can get along with NZF (that's been done before, for starters), it's how they can broker a relationship between NZF and the Greens. Which means they sit in the middle, really, and they are the ones holding the cards. At the end of the day, they are going to be the Lion's share of the government, they will have the PM, and it is on them to show how this fragmentation on the Left is not really over the issues that mainly concern their voters as much as their voters will to oppose the much more stark contrast with the option of another National government.

    My gut feeling is that Peters will want to make his last days as politician in NZ something to be proud of, a final vindication of the reason he formed his party in the first place, to oppose neoliberalism and all it's repulsive ilk, rather than spending 3 years as a junior partner to more of it.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    What I found was that NZF voters were very hard to distinguish from Labour voters. The most dividing question was not (as I’d predicted beforehand) something to do with immigration or opinions on gays. It was whether the person trusted internet banking. This was pretty clearly a proxy question to a demographic distinction (probably age).

    You sure it wasn't an indication of *who* they trust, more broadly? Private sector, state, community, family, self - that sort of thing. Did any other questions bear on that?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19695 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Tbh, it seems crazy tense out there in the public square. I hope the weather’s good this weekend.

    I was thinking about this last night. The insurgent left is increasingly on the march across the Angoshpere, and one of its defining characteristics is its rejection of third way centrism and along with that a rejection of even bothering to seek accommodations with the snake oil salesmen of neoliberalism in the establishment.

    Be it Corbynistas or the Young Turks talking up Bernie Saunders, the new left is far, far more willing to be confrontational and seek victory over, rather than compromise with, the current status quo.

    In other words, politics is back.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2213 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    You sure it wasn’t an indication of *who* they trust, more broadly?

    No, I'm not sure. Demographic info was in the survey, but I've never had the time to look more closely. Multiple factors will contribute to distrusting internet banking, but I'd be willing to bet that age would be very strongly correlated, and it is a completely unambiguous measure as well. There's very little nuance the question of how old you are.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    National Wear Your Heart On Your Sleeve Week – pt III
    I note that Fran O'Sullivan at least managed to not invoke the 'holding the country to ransom' meme - she went straight for 'tyranny'!

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7893 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    Before MMP, majority governments resulted from every FPP election in New Zealand from 1935 to 1993.

    FFS, how can a senior journalist not grasp the basic concept of majority.

    One of the reasons we ditched FPP was the way it allowed parties with a minority of votes to be the government. How do we make the editors and producers who let such lies into print or on-screen accountable?

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19695 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    That post-election coverage in full:

    All five parties in Parliament:

    "We will now proceed to form alignments, as promised to our respective voters. Two on each side, opposing each other, and one in between, negotiating. In other words, we will do exactly what we said we would do, before the election."

    Sundry commentators: "Do something else!"

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1324 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to Sacha,

    How do we make the editors and producers who let such lies into print or on-screen accountable?

    It's probably the media owners and politicians who should be accountable for making their cosy relationships explicit.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 310 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    How do we make the editors and producers who let such lies into print or on-screen accountable?

    Time will take them from us, I think. It won't be long before everyone with fond memories of FPP is at least gone from any kind of political influence.

    FFS, how can a senior journalist not grasp the basic concept of majority.

    She grasps it. But when you're out of material and have to get to print, you rerun old stories. It works for a huge part of the readership who is feeling left out because essentially they voted National and haven't grasped that there's a good chance that more than half of the country has had enough of that and National swallowed up all the other options. Basically, they don't have the numbers, but they feel like they should. Like every loser of every close election ever thought.

    I well remember the feeling, from some time around 2007. I could tell that Labour was over, and that we faced 6-9 years at least of National. It sucked because I personally found it hard to believe so many people thought that National was a goer. However, the more National voters I met, many of whom were old friends swinging to National, the clearer it was to me that in a representative democracy, eventually people tire of every leadership choice. If your life isn't peaches, who else can be held accountable but the most powerful people for the last decade? And for many it wasn't peaches. And now, it's still not peaches, and back it swings.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    It works for a huge part of the readership who is feeling left out because essentially they voted National and haven't grasped that there's a good chance that more than half of the country has had enough of that and National swallowed up all the other options. Basically, they don't have the numbers, but they feel like they should. Like every loser of every close election ever thought.

    They're also up against a global sea-change in the air on par with the formation of Bretton Woods (driven by the Great Depression and WW2), and the Supply-Side era spearheaded by Thatcher & Reagan in the 1980s (which came out of Bretton Woods being thrown into disarray). The Great Recession threw supply-side economics itself into disarray, and Brexit & President Trump have sadly filled a void left by mainstream social democrats who've worn blue clothes for too long.

    Those IGMFY types profiting big from the current order won't go quietly - expect them to relitigate the outcome of the election for the next 3 years if they find their self-declared monopoly on power suddenly loosened.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5423 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to BenWilson,

    But when you’re out of material and have to get to print, you rerun old stories.

    So true.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

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