Posts by Neil Morrison
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To move onto something less controversial, US politics, it's not hard to understand why Hillary is ahead of Obama with Democrat supporters but is edged out by Obama in a race against Guiliani with voters in general.
Hillary is unpopular with one group of voters - men between the ages of 18 and 49. Add to that the popularity she has with blacks and the less well off then the primary demographic that is anti-Hillary is white middle class 18 to 49 yr old men. That's most likely the make up of swing voters who shift to Guiliana or Obama.
But with those that will determine the Democrat nominaton Hillary is consistantly ahead and looks to be increasing that lead.
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Could you tell the farmers I'm happy to pay 1% more for milk if that helps?
This is in jest I know but I think it's important to be clear that it's not the effect on our domestic economy but on our exports which is most important.
Decreasing the competitive advantage of our primary industry exports may be a price we are prepared to pay but given how important those exports are to our standard of living, to our ability to import computers, it's a price we need to at least acknowledge.
Farmers may only be 1% of the population but they make by far the greatest contribution to our wealth. If anyone is to blame for primary industry green house gas emissions it's the majority of NZers who benefit from those exports.
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Neil: The number you're looking for is that agriculture is responsible for 50% of export earnings.
I wasn't looking for the number, that was the information you left out when making the case that farming was of little econmic value any more -
And before anyone gets on their high horse about how valuable farming is, this isn't the nineteenth century anymore. Agriculture contributes only 5% of total GDP and 3.3% of total employment
The “agriculture contributes only 5% of total GDP" was a statistical sleight of hand. The important figure is how much agricutlure contributes to our exports, which you didn't include.
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if climatologists are so confident in predicting negative climate change in 50 years time, how come they couldn't get the forecast right for Easter Weekend?
Paradoxically long term prediction can indeed be more accurate than short term prediction. I can predict with a reasonable chance of success that the Dow Jones will be higher in ten years time than now. But I wouldn't make the same call with as much certainty for one month’s time.
The short term can be dramatically effected by noise, long term trends are by definition not so prone. (Still, the scale problem is one reason that some scientists have remained skeptical of global warming).
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And before anyone gets on their high horse about how valuable farming is, this isn't the nineteenth century anymore. Agriculture contributes only 5% of total GDP and 3.3% of total employment
There's no need for a high horse to point this out.
The importance of primary industry is not so much its contribution to GDP but its contribution to our exports - which is where we get our quality of living from. That is why farming remains so valuable.
Check out the export stats for Dec 2006. The first three big earners are all in the primary sector. Dairy remains by far our biggest export sector and the major contributor to NZ's wealth.
Blaming farmers for this situation is a bit counter productive.
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I think the psychology behind it is partly "I don't like people telling me what to think". Bloody mindedness in the guise of independent thinking.
On the other hand a close friend who's a palynologist (with impeccable left wing credentials) and researches past climate change was a climate change skeptic for quite a while. I'm not sure of his position now. It's not hard to see how people who have studied the history of the earth, like geologists, could be skeptical.
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There's three trems that I know of used in France for refering to Arabs.
"Les Arabs" - has negative connotations if refering to people living in France. Neutral to positive if refering to Arabs not in France such as in the Israel/Palestinian conflict.
"Les Beurres" - young, urban, usually male, 2nd to 3rd generation of North African descent. Also "Beurrettes" for young females (who often fight their Beurre relatives since they are treated very badly - caught between two cultures).
"Maghreban" - from one of the 3 former French North African colonies.
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Derbyshire's comments are pretty in ya-face-odious but another ridiculous line of reasoning he and others are making is that this is some sort of defeat for Blair and Britain.
My reading of this is that Blair stood his ground and the Iranians blinked. Blair gave nothing away and warned of serious consequences if the sailors weren't returned. I don't think the more level headed people in the Iranian leadership would have got the upper hand if Blair was not taken seriously at his word.
To accuse him of being overly dovish is ludicrous.
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John Derbyshire supporting the British sailors:
Once again, it's me and Ralph Peters on the same wavelength, deploring the cowardice of the British sailors and marines kidnapped by Iran. When it happened, I said I hoped the ones who'd shamed their country would be court-martialed on return to Blighty, and given dishonorable discharges after a couple years breaking rocks in the Outer Hebrides (which, believe me—I've been there—have a LOT of rocks). Now, I confess, I wouldn't shed a tear if some worse fate befell them.
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Rob, the two views aren't mutually exclusive. There was a hard left element that set out to orchestrate confrontations with the police because of their own domestic political agenda that had nothing to do with apartheid.
But I suppose I'm just tired of the "I was a protestor so I don't like the police" line.
ron, I agree with you about the Christchurch crèche business but I don't see its relevance. Ironically the Police were responding to the wilder-eyed feminist guff going around at the time. Swinging to far the other way as it were.