Posts by Danyl Mclauchlan
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Sean Wilentz, professor of History at Princeton... lays out the case that Obama can't win.
Bob, did you read that before you posted it? The first paragraph contains an authoritative prediction that Clinton is on the verge of becoming the democratic nominee.
Clinton is now well poised to win the Puerto Rico primary on June 1 - and clinch a majority in this year's popular vote
I gotta admit I didn't read the rest of the article - it seemed a little dated.
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In my recollection ( I was working in the Beehive at the time), there was a war going on between Margaret Pope and Roger Douglas's chief political advisor, whose name I can't even remember - Bevan someone.
Bevan Burgess. God I wish there was footage of that guy on youtube; the Monty Python 'Upper class twit of the year' skit doesn't even come close.
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The anti-smacking bill would be up there, I'd suggest.
Good call Rob and Graeme - I think its fair to say Judith Collins didn't sign off on that one at least.
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In contrast, he says his successor John Key understands the strength stratospheric polls give him. Key has "made a few statements as leader which I strongly suspect haven't been through the whole party process".
Its a pity Brash didn't expand on this - I'd be fascinated to hear his examples of 'Key unplugged'. I guess the recent volte-face on Kiwisaver could have been a unilateral decision but everything else the National leader has come out with has struck me as pretty safe, focus-grouped poll-tested stuff.
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You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to link this bit of political deflection with National's gaffe over Kiwisaver and wonder how much comparing of notes there actually is between the Herald and the National Party these days.
I suspect it has more to do with National having a really sharp media team while Labour's has been a train wreck for over a year now.
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Me: Permanent/long term departures are up 12% over last year
Terence w: Yes__ but our population has grown too.__Okay, that's it. I'm outta here. Its been fun.
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most Australians don't live on the Gold Coast, and most pommes don't live in Chelsea.
I did in fact live in Chelsea and left my job in a merchant bank to come be a scientist back in New Zealand so I'm aware that not all life-decisions made are financial ones. All I can do is point out the statistics:
Permanent/long term departures are up 12% over last year.
44,000 people left for Australia.
The total number of permanent departures - 80,000 - is the highest since records began.
10% of all kiwis are considering moving to Australia in the next 12 months.Anecdotally I know that the difference in taxes and wages made a difference to the people I know who've left and if I go it'll be a factor there too. Wishing this wasn't the case won't make it so.
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I'm afraid that when people talk about going to Australia, my first, very immature and unspoken, thought is - well, go on then.
That's all very well until you need radiation therapy - or even a dentist or plumber - and find out those services are either prohibitively expensive or require very long wait times because the majority of people who provide them have left the country.
Last I looked people in the top tax bracket only paid about 1/3 of total tax
Look again, its now about 2/3rds of total income tax take.
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I think it unlikely that a modest raise in the top marginal tax rate is likely to lead to the problems you describe.
Since we're already experiencing the problems I describe this flies in the face of simple common sense. Surely another 'modest raise' is going to make the currently existing problem modestly worse?
I also think you run into the danger of tipping points when playing around with these ideas. If my wife and I move to Australia then our after-tax incomes increase by roughly 80% overnight, due to wage and tax disparities. This is enough to have us (and almost everyone we know) talking about leaving. You never know when yet another 'modest' imposition on the rather small demographic that pays almost all the bills is going to turn the current flood into a deluge.
Australia's top tax rate is (or was until recently?) considerably higher than ours and you don't see Australians flocking in this direction do you.
Sophistry - as you know their top tax rate is at $150,000 and their wages are WAY higher than ours. Anyone coming this way might pay less tax but would also suffer a massive pay cut.
brain drain is no larger problem for Sweden than it is for the UK.
Brain drain is a huge problem for Sweden but in our case it is conspicuously bad because we have a much larger, much warmer country right next door that speaks the same language, has no barriers to entry and pays workers a lot more while taxing them less. The situation is arguably unique.
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Given the hostility from the top 20% - the bourgeoise middle class - to programmes like WFF, what chance would any program of genuine wealth re-distribution for the "undeserving poor" enjoy in the new Chile that is New Zealand? My guess is zero . . . The question is, are we ready or willing for for a counter-revolution? Is there really any stomach for our version of a Bolivarian revolt against new right orthodoxy in New Zealand?
Okay, so here's where the whole prospect of a counter-revolution that finally sticks it to those greedy bastards in the top 20% falls down: they can simply leave.
The top 20% of taxpayers account for approximately 60% of income tax revenue and the reality is that New Zealand is competing with other countries - especially Australia - for those workers. If the counter-revolution involves additional wealth distribution - and I've no doubt it does - then instead of getting more money from the evil rich the states revenues will likely decline as high income earners leave the country.
This doesn't just have an effect on government revenue; people on high-incomes tend to provide desirable or crucial services and if the bulk of them leave your quality of life will decline pretty dramatically - as anyone who's tried to get an appointment to see their GP recently will testify.