Posts by Bart Janssen
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Which begs the questions as to why the WHO still seem to think it has "limited" human-to-human transmission.
Yeah that struck me as odd. The fact that some kiwi tourists have picked it up suggests human transmission is pretty good.
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The second wave of infected less likely to be living with pigs.
I know this is said in a light tone, but it has absolutely nothing to do with subsequent spread.
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Hi boss, I think I might be coming down with the flue...
Actually just about the best thing that people could do is stay home if they feel sick.
Lots of studies have shown that the pillock who struggles valiantly into work does stuff all that is useful themselves and infects the whole workplace.
Really seriously, if you're sick the best thing you can do for your workplace is stay home.
It just doesn't seem to make sense that a virus would become less virulent as it spreads.
Assuming this is really a significant genetic shift in flu then as the virus spreads it will undergo genetic drift. The initial genetic shift is a large change in the sequence of the proteins on the surface of the virus. This seems to occur by shuffling genes between viruses in a host that has been infected with multiple viruses. In this case Mexican pigs.
With a large change the virus is completely different to strains that have been doing the rounds over the last 10-20 years. So the flu that you had last year won't be similar enough to this flu for your immune system to recognise it and then defend you. And the flu vaccine won't be much help (some help yes, just not much) either until they make a vaccine from this new virus. Of course as soon as they make a vaccine for this strain then it will protect you.
But as the virus spreads small changes occur, genetic drift. These small changes can make the virus more or less like other strains people have been exposed to. It is pretty much random. Sometimes strains can become more similar in which case you have some resistance and suffer less severe symptoms and last years vaccine will help more. Sometimes they become more different in which case they become more deadly.
However any change that makes the transmission easier tends to spread faster. Which makes very good sense.
While it does make evolutionary sense for viruses to not kill their hosts - over this kind of short period of time that evolutionary pressure has no effect. Any change in virulence we see over the next month or so is just random.
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You say having the rest of the country empty - like it's a bad thing?
Having most of NZ empty is one of the best things about NZ. I can drive out of Auckland and go to place that aren't buried under people and their stuff. Seriously we don't want high density urban populations all over our country.
But yeah I admit in some cases it makes sense for some stuff to move south. But be careful what you wish for. If that really came to pass it is probably the dirtiest stuff that would want to move.
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Paul
you wrote
What I'd like to see is an electricity scheme that includes the cost of pushing those electrons across Cook Straight
And as a Jaffa I just wanted to say "bite me".
But you are being serious. So it's a serious answer. If as you suggest you encourage industries, those that use lots of electricity to set up in the SI the yes you will use the electricity more efficiently.
That is after all the logic behind the Aluminium smelter.
BUT if you do that then you have to transport the raw materials to the factory. Note most times that will mean from the Port of Auckland to the SI at huge energy costs. And then when you've made your widget you have to ship it back to Auckland where it either gets sold to the one third of consumers in NZ or shipped overseas.
There are a few industries where the energy costs work out in favour of using the energy in SI. But for most it's a colossal waste of energy and it is much more energy efficient to move electrons down a wire.
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Ok on a more serious note.
I don't think there is much wrong with Super Rugby in terms of the rules. There will always be some dicking around with the rules as admins adapt to improving player skill and technology. It is actually a better game now than it used to be.
What I've seen of the games is fine too. The chiefs play nice rugby that is athletic and entertaining. It is an athletic spectacle the in a way that Rugby wasn't in the past.
The issue is getting the public interested right?
But the dominant feeling I get amongst the few of my friends that care anything about sports, is that it's too early for Rugby.
This isn't just me being a cricket nut. There is something inherent about Rugby that makes it a winter sport. It's like strawberries at Christmas time, it may not make sense but it's part of the culture. Rugby just ought to be played in winter.
So along comes February with it's long beautiful summer days spent painting the house or at the beach listening to the radio and hearing a Rugby game seems odd. Turning on the TV and seeing Rugby while the BBQ is still hot is wrong. And no amount of marketing can change that.
So now it is starting to feel like winter and I'm starting to think about Rugby and there is this competition that is half over? How am I going to get interested in that? The answer for me is that I'm not interested. League is just starting their comp and I can join in and feel like I'm engaged, same for Netball but the Super 14 comp, why bother it's almost over already.
The NZRU et al all want to get more money and so they've gone down the path of Super 14. It sells well in England (in winter BTW) and they get pots of cash from TV rights. But they've failed to engage the general NZ public and so they have empty stadia which looks bad on TV and makes the product less valuable. Oh dear.
So give up and play Super 14 in smaller stadia or only open a quarter of the stands and make sure the cameras focus on the packed crowd rather than the bare seats.
OR
Play Super 14 in winter, when kiwis give a damn about Rugby and play games at 2:30 pm. That will get you packed stadia. But won't get you good TV payments.
Two choices really.
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The most interesting thing about the Super 14 is the uniforms.
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Regarding Susan Boyle. She does have a lovely voice.
I still wonder whether the web we use so much will create a space where people who, like her, would never normally be touched by marketing types, can present their skills.
It always seemed to me that the web should open up entertainment but it doesn't seem to have happened as much as I thought it would.
I guess I'd hoped that having "the web" discover talent might get us away from the idea that you have to be pretty to be successful.
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Besides, it is distasteful
Out of context, I know and my apologies for that.
Gio and you Paul don't want speculation about Veitch's mental health and I understand that.
But I applaud Kracklite et al for talking about suicide and depression. I've been depressed and I don't really think I'll ever be completely free of it. What I know is that it was those of my friends who were able to talk with me that helped the most. But many of my friends (whom I love just as much) simply could not talk about such a subject.
I think talking about suicide and depression and our mental health is very important. Too often people shy away from discussing it as distasteful. But talking helps, it really does, and it saddens me that we tend not to talk much about what really is a very important thing in our lives - our mental health and the mental health of our friends.
That said, guessing as to Veitch's mental health is tough. Where it is purely gossip, I'd say yes it is distasteful blather. But I think Kracklite et al were not gossiping but instead discussing real experiences and trying to draw from their own knowledge to try and clarify what is going on so publicly for Mr Veitch. It may not help him but it may help someone who reads this thread.
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Stuart
Can you or someone else remember the name?
Good, cheap Malaysian food -
If they're good let us know so we can go too :).