Posts by Bart Janssen
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I found it interesting that the virologist on Morning Report the other day said that catching the virus from eating pork was unlikely. He didn't say it was impossible, or that it's not the way it works.
That was because he was speaking in the media as a virologist. There is indeed a non-zero chance that you can catch flu from eating pork. There is also a non-zero chance that you can win lotto three weeks in a row (if you buy a ticket each week).
As someone posting on a comments thread (and not representing anyone but myself) I feel comfortable in saying there is simply no way flu would survive through the cooking process and if it did you would have to somehow get the virus onto your mucosal membranes (nose, lungs, eyes) since your stomach acid would kill any virus that got down there.
So not possible and no it doesn't work that way - unless you believe winning lotto 3 weeks in a row is plausible.
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Rich
Sadly it's stats. All you do by washing your hands is reduce the probability by an enormous amount - but you can't get to zero.
So if enough surfaces are contaminated then you probably can't avoid it.
Same for staying away from sick people.
BUT in practical terms yes washing your hands will work.
BTW endemic isn't the right word
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Ian, that's a dangerous amount of awesome for one post.
Seconded! That is very special.
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I hope you have a waterproof keyboard Jan
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Has anyone started a PhageBook yet?
That would just be wrong...
Unless you think of us as mere vehicles for the perpetuation of the billions of bacteria that inhabit us all.
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Regarding aerosol vs contact transmission.
I'm very aware that flu is transmitted by aerosol (coughing etc) and that most sites you visit will talk about this transmission as being the dominant.
The reason I talk about contact as being the dominant is from my time as a virology MSc student. Which is to say some time ago and feel free to listen to practicing virologists and not me.
At the time we had a number of conversations about transmission of viruses and the consensus amongst the people I trust was that yes you get flu from aerosols - but only if you happen to be around when someone coughs or sneezes. The virus does not hang in the air for hours and hours and you can't really walk into a room that someone sneezed in an hour ago and get infected. Same for planes, which filter the air pretty well.
But you can touch a door handle (say on an airplane toilet) and transfer infective virus several hours after the infected person was there. The virus is now on your hands and will die there unless you touch your nose eyes or mouth, at which point, bingo you win the prize of 3-10 days of feeling miserable.
So in the end us virologists decided that about the best thing you can do is wash your hands - lots. It also helps to not rub your eyes or nose.
It is harder to avoid breathing.
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I refute those alligators, sir. Utterly.
Impossible! Only mammals have udders.
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For a moment I hesitated between demanding and germ free ("wash your hands and wipe down that card with germicide before you hand it back to me!") and polite (smile and take put wet card back in my wallet). Unfortunately I chose the latter and was sick for a week.
And if you had washed your card and hands before doing anything else you would have probably avoided it.
Most viruses including flu are transmitted by hand to mouth or hand to eye transfer from an infected person to an uninfected person. Aerosol infection is possible with flu but is the minor form of transmission.
And it most definitely is a news story. None of the media I have seen/heard have played it for more than is reasonable - yet. It would be ridiculous for the media to ignore the story. In my opinion it would be irresponsible for the WHO to NOT consider pandemic questions early and equally irresponsible for the media to not report it.
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Also, if you genuinely have got swine flu/marburg disease/lassa fever and you survive and your co-workers die, it's possible that the natural reduction in headcount might help you avoid redundancy.
ROFL
You're terrible Muriel -
Because "limited" doesn't mean "none",
Yes that's true. But most folks when they hear "limited" they don't think of it as a term that is used relative to the normal transmission rate for that virus. So Influenza is by it's nature is pretty damn infectious and this strain does not seem to be excessively highly transmitted, which gets it the title "limited". But that still leaves it as fairly easy to transmit. Just like any other flu.
Look, all I'm saying is that it might be wise not to drive up the free floating paranoia levels without good reason.
Ok fair enough. It is unlikely that we will see 20 million deaths. We have much better health systems and can treat severe cases much better now than was possible in 1918. We don't even know for sure it is a new strain (although it does seem likely). And most importantly for me is we now have the ability to generate a vaccine specific for this strain very quickly and distribute it very quickly.
But even a non-lethal flu outbreak is a royal pain in the butt. Even non-lethal flu makes most folks feel like shit for a week. And even a slightly wider spread flu outbreak than normal in winter can play havoc with schools etc. So a little simple caution isn't too paranoid is it?
And the single simplest way to reduce the spread is to encourage sick people to not go and associate with lots of other people.
Actually that's not entirely true the single best way to limit the spread is for people to wash their hands with soap and water for one rendition of Happy Birthday. Seriously :).