Posts by BenWilson
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For starters, what would count as a good outcome from the Brexit negotiations? How could anyone achieve that?
Yes, obviously the whole world is waiting with bated breath to hear what either of the British main parties think about that. They could be excused for thinking that was perhaps the point of the election, since that is how mandate seeking elections are done in other democracies, although of course sensible democracies would have held another referendum to confirm the result first. They could also be excused for thinking that what actually happened shows a weakening political will to Brexit at all. But unfortunately May invoked Article 50 before getting her mandate, which very much destroyed the point of seeking the mandate at all.
Had the most extreme outside shot of Labour being actually elected happened, they could pretty much do as they please with Brexit, heaping all the blame for being shoved into it onto May’s choice to invoke the Article without any other apparent plans. Even now, there is still the possibility of not Brexiting, if we were talking about a nation with the slightest ability to eat humble pie. It could be treated as an open round of re-engagement with Europe on terms that have to be agreed with the member states. Public engagement about what exactly it is about the EU that (a majority of ) Brits don’t want could happen. Europe really wants to know what those are.
To say that Labour could not do a better job than the Tories is to me an admission that Labour is not ready to be the government of Britain. Only on those terms can I agree that it’s a good thing they didn’t win the election. Those are not terms I can celebrate. I do not understand what Labour hopes to achieve in Brexit other than point scoring over the Tories. That’s just embarrassing, IMHO.
But these options vanished. Brexit will be a Tory baby and I don't think acting like a spoiled rich brat is going to work out for Britain here. I doubt neoliberalism is going to be the victim of all of this. It may be two steps backwards for liberalism but it will be three steps forward for the neo part of that ideology.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Moz,
winning the election would have been a disaster for Labour, but a close second and a Conservative Party in disarray is a very good outcome.
I really don't agree. Winning the election and becoming the actual government for the next 5 years would have been a far, far superior outcome. Corbyn could have actually gone for his agenda. Health and education for the next 5 years could have received better funding. There would be almost zero chance of Britain becoming embroiled in any wars. There might even be a sea change in international politics. There would be zero chance of some crazy windfall in popularity for the incumbents, like a huge terror attack. Those kids who voted would feel that it made a difference.
Yes, Brexit is going to be a disaster. But I think that in a disaster I'd rather have my people doing the negotiating rather than my enemies. Every outcome is going to be negotiated on Tory terms.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Rich Lock,
But frankly, that’s a tomorrow problem, because at the moment, I am having the most fun I have had in ages.
Good on you, man, I guess celebration is all part of preparing for the next phase.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Rich Lock,
Eh, still high from last night. Normal service will be resumed soon.
Of course the jubilation is justified, given how things looked 6 weeks ago. It could have been so much worse. With the benefit of distance, I'm a lot less caught up in the headiness of the moment, despite being definitely pleased. High youth turnout is a really fantastic outcome, something that could give us hope here in NZ.
And yet the system and the stakes are so very different here that I'm very wary of the sweeping conclusions that Tom makes. I don't really think we look ahead to Britain at all any more. Many of the outcomes of this election just smack of everything wrong with FPP, things we haven't had to deal with for over 20 years. To someone from a proportional representation country, I look at the election as a whole, and see wins and losses everywhere, with the final outcome being a system artifact much more than a measure of a profound groundswell. I see profound unfairness in the outcome, something both Tories and Labour are beneficiaries of. I see a nation with its head in the sand over Brexit, and that includes Labour. It was the issue at hand, the whole purpose of the election. A year ago the nation was divided in two over it. Now, more than 80% of the political representation is fully committed to it. I look at Britain and see cray everywhere. I see very hard times ahead.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Rich Lock,
I wish I had your optimism. It's hard to believe that there are people who would be happy to risk severe public disorder for their own vain power ambitions, because I don't associate with people like that. But I think that the Tories are like that. I think May is like that. It's one of those things that sounds like it could never happen again because surely we learned from the last 20 times? But that's just it - if you learn anything from the last 20 times, its that it's almost bound to happen again and can only be stopped by a very concerted and coordinated effort. It doesn't matter that it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous that any humans alive are starving or homeless, given what it is our species has achieved technologically. It's ridiculous that your official head of state is an old lady, gifted the role by her birth. It's ridiculous that your judges wear powdered wigs in court. Many things are ridiculous, and happen all the time. Brexit is ridiculous, but it's going to happen, for sure.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Katharine Moody,
do I (and others) now see these two countries as such? Hmm.
Well, I'd say that other world leaders are starting to see them as laughing stocks. But it only takes one outbreak of hostilities for all of the humor to vanish. May has openly stated an intention to dispense with human rights. I don't think we'll all be laughing if she decides that in order to be taken seriously she starts throwing Britain's military weight around, nor do I think that this is a wild outside shot as an option, given Britain's recent history.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Tom Semmens,
The Tory vote went “up” because they hosed up SOME of the UKIP vote – but enough working class and precariat voters understood the Tories were just false friends to keep Labour seats safe, while Labour’s policies appealed far more to the lower middle class than the Tories and they hosed up heaps of those.
Not sure I agree with any of that. The Tory vote went up but the number of seats went down. They took a whole lot of UKIP, but Labour took an even bigger bite out of SNP (absolutely rather than proportionally). Since FPP is winner take all, this translated into a net gain for Labour and a net loss for the Tories, despite both of them having gained.
In overall "left" wing support the shift is considerably less than the Tory to Labour swing would imply. So it's good news for the Labour party as a party but not necessarily as good news for a shift of the political center. The balance of power now looks like it could be dictated to by DUP. For the next 5 years. They will basically work out Brexit between them.
So yes, I'm glad there was a swing away from May, since she was hopeless and scary. Whatever mandate that was sought by this election was seriously challenged. But now it's just going to be done without a mandate in a halfarsed and hopeless way. I don't see any more cause for jubilation in this, really, than I did in the election of Trump. The leadership of two of the world's most dangerous nations is now in the hands of barely mandated right wing fools with no apparent plans at all beyond the usual feathering of their own nests.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Zach Bagnall,
Tories will now scrounge up some compliant randoms to prop them up?
I presume DUP is a shoo in for their support?
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Zach Bagnall,
Not sure about embassy voting.. does NZ have such a thing in every US state?
NZ, I don't know, but I'd have thought the British would. You're in Colorado? There's a British Consulate in Denver according to Google.
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Hard News: Interesting Britain!, in reply to Zach Bagnall,
You couldn't go to the Embassy to vote?