Posts by simon g
Last ←Newer Page 1 2 3 4 5 Older→ First
-
The problem for the Greens is not that they will fall under the threshold, but that they - and therefore all of us - will miss out on some very good potential new MPs.
By contrast, if NZ First get the dozen or so MPs currently predicted, the best we can hope for is that seats will be warmed by non-entities. The worst is yet another talkback-recycling third-rater (see previous Winston Lists, since 1996).
Ignoring the party lists is an endemic failure in our election coverage, and every term we go through it all again ... when we suddenly discover that we elected a headline-in-waiting.
-
I'm sure the Greens will get over 5%. There will be some headless chickenry in the media for a few days, but in the mad, logic-free way of these things, when the next poll has the Greens at 6 or 7, the headlines will be "Poll boost for Greens". Meanwhile, everyone can decide (no evidence required) that the Greens' slump is because 1) Little quit or 2) Turei revealed or 3) Turei quit. A counter-factual (Little quits, Turei doesn't) could have put the Greens at 10% or 2%. We'll never know, but who needs knowledge?
Worth remembering (to tie in with the 'Chinese names' discussion elsewhere) that approximately 100% of Conventional Wisdom Experts have been telling us for years that Labour had to do stuff like that - go all blue-collar, non-PC blokey to get votes from Winston. That was their best shot at clawing back into contention. In short, more or less the opposite of what has happened.
-
The Barnaby Joyce scrap has really shown up the difference between the Australian (plus international) media, and some of our own local hacks. Basically everyone outside NZ (from the NYT to the BBC) has reported the story as "Aussie Foreign Minister loses plot", because that's the bigger player making the bigger news. Meanwhile those trapped in the little Wellington village of Pressgallery think it's all about Chris Hipkins.
They are so immersed in their world they can't see the wide one. (Next up: North Korea attacks USA, WW3 begins, Soper and Gower say this is bad news for the Greens).
-
Everybody relax, she's gone, we're safe. Meanwhile ...
-
An almost audible groan would rumble along the National Party’s benches at Parliament every time she rose to ask a question.
They knew it was a cue for another sanctimonious lecture on National’s failures.
Opposition MP in Criticising Government Shock! The nerve of the woman.
If nothing else, the past few days have shown us what a real Derangement Syndrome looks like.
-
Audrey Young's throwaway line in the Herald says it all, really:
One of my colleagues spent several hours buried in the National Library this week trying to track down her flatmates from that time.
While all this was happening, the Panama Papers fallout continued, reported by a few (Matt Nippert), ignored by most. TLDR: Key was wrong, his critics were right, and many millions of dollars were at stake. Sir John could not be reached for comment (because nobody bothered).
-
Let me just illustrate what I mean about historical perspective, and the need to stand back from the mob.
Here are the names of all the MPs in Parliament when Metiria entered, after the 2002 election.
If you take a moment to scroll down that list, you will find about 25-30 MPs who were subsequently making headlines for legal/ethical wrongdoing while they were MPs. Some ended up in court and resigning, others survived. (I'm not naming them all, because it's not my blog and there are defamation laws, and of course there is a difference between being in "trouble" and being convicted of a crime. Lest we forget, Metiria is the former, not the latter). But if anyone needs to refresh their memory ... there it is.
Screaming "Worst. Person. Ever" just doesn't cut it, or come anywhere close. And not everyone has joined that chorus - but far too many have.
-
Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to Lynn Yum,
On the other hand, her vote fraud was unjustifible and just plain stupid.
If anybody from the electoral commisssion, a law professor, or anyone else with relevant perspective held that view, I would listen. So far, all I've heard is sanity - we'd lose a hundred MPs overnight if that level of pre-MP misdemeanour required resignation. They drank, they drove, they weren't caught. That's all.
-
It's a very sad day. Forget the insane soap opera, we've all lost, public discourse has lost, and no doubt future documentary makers and historians will be saying "WTF?". The madness took hold, and like so many such episodes in the past, it won't be long before Metiria Turei will be getting the accolades and the mob will be forgotten - or pretending they were never part of it.
I'll be voting Green at the election - because, um, policies. Remember them?
-
Hard News: Metiria's Problem, in reply to Mr Mark,
I'd say the "chaos" is mostly being perpetuated by people shouting "chaos". Some of them (like Patrick Gower) have a vested interest in the "chaos". (As I commented upthread, I don't think Metiria handled it well, but I don't feel the need to repeat that opinion daily as some kind of substitute for actual news).
Oliver Hartwich speaks for me, and more eloquently than I can.
Let's not lose sight of the real issue, which is of course that Brad Butterworth and Russell Coutts are disgraceful traitors to New Zealand, and we should all be furious, and have lots of reckons. Eh, who, what? Well, exactly.
A story dominating media noise doesn't mean it's vital to the future of the country. The country will struggle to remember it soon enough.