Posts by simon g
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Another TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.
I don't think it's too far-fetched to suggest that Steven Joyce's innumerate mud-chucking was at least partly motivated to influence this poll, although it would only cover the later stages of the polling period.
(Corin Dann soundbite bingo: "Labour's momentum has stalled ... National recover ... NZ First/Greens struggling for oxygen ..." etc).
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Hard News: Drugs and human rights, in reply to Katharine Moody,
Remember that they won't actually be voted back in, as currently constituted: they can (realistically) only form a government with NZ First. So that would actually be a more conservative/authoritarian government than Key's.
Since they won't want to hand over much influence on economic policy, National would throw Winston all the bones he wants on getting "tough" with PC liberal wimps.
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More small print: tonight's Newshub poll was Aug 22-30. Which makes some of the responses older than the TVNZ poll before the leaders' debate.
These details matter.
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Sir John Key may have to be arrested (without a warrant, obviously) for associating with gangs.
Really, there are dozens of confused and contradictory stories on this: National in opposition a decade ago pledging to win the War on P, National in government assuring us that the war is being won, National on the campaign trail promising to start the war again every 3 years and deal to National the useless government, etc, etc.
It would help if reporters could Google, rather than conduct pointless vox pops (looking at you, Lloyd Burr). Do we really have to pretend every election that this is something new?
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Fortunately last night's TVNZ debate was not accompanied by the text "poll" from previous campaigns that I mentioned above - so that was a plus.
On t'other hand, it was immediately preceded by a proper one. Although I liked the result, I don't think that it should have been used to frame the debate. A day earlier would have been better. And fairer to English, not that I worry too much about that.
Anyway, next gripe: time for commentators to stop annointing Winston as inevitable Kingmaker. e.g. Labour 40 + Greens 8 + Maori 1.5 (and electorate) = 61/121. Not saying it will happen (odds are it won't) but it's time to update some of that conventional wisdom.
(ETA: gave the Greens an extra point ... because I can!)
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Today Peter Dunne joins the long list of those who now decry the emptiness of Keyism, but only after Key has gone. If they wanted elevated political discourse, they should have got around to telling the former PM, maybe during one of those infantile rants on Budget day, or countless other eye-rolling performances.
In fact, I find this election campaign a good deal less cringeworthy than many previous ones (so far ... with fate duly tempted).
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To inflict maximum damage on Peters, the leaker would need to have acted before he paid the money back. Everyone would have been shouting "pay it back", and saying "of course I will" would not have defused the 'scandal', whereas "I already did" effectively has.
So this phantom nothing-to-do-with-National person inside MSD is a bit thick. Or, you know, not real. Because more people knew about it after he'd paid it back, and we know who they were.
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24 hours on, the "story shifts", says Patrick Gower.
No Paddy, the story is the one that it always was - who leaked and why? You and your colleagues simply chose the easier, noisier option instead. Not that Newshub is alone in this laziness - I'm sick to death of wannabe Woodsteins using words like "investigative" or "exclusive" when what they really mean is ...
"A politician has given this to me so I can be their patsy. This involves very little work for me, so I'm fine with that. Serving the public by digging further would mean doing actual journalism, but also staying late at the office, so nah."
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Updating the earlier discussion on the party lists, according to RNZ Checkpoint, Shane Jones is ranked no. 9 for NZ First. He'll miss out if they only get around 7%.
So now we have every incentive to vote for the Lab-Nat-Green-Maori Popular Front.
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As predicted ... the Herald has a "new poll" today.
Small print: it's still the same one. Same polling period (Aug 16-21). This really is not good enough.