Up Front by Emma Hart

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Up Front: An Open Letter to the Labour Party from a People of Christchurch

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  • Sacha, in reply to Mikaere Curtis,

    Is someone who appears to have popularity with National voters really a potential candidate for Christchurch East ?

    Should stand him against Brownlee

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    If the Greens are running anyone, and have any sense, they'll stand Mathers. She's got profile in the seat, will be running there agin in 10 months time, and is a good advocate for Green issues.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    I thought someone had OOS given the way the poll turned around from the showing in the first couple of hours to the result later this afternoon. Why don't Stuff just stop multiple voting on polls -- or is that impossible?

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    Exactly why growing the name recognition of another person in a party with a small number of MPs is important when that party is the third-largest in Paliament by far and is likely to have more MPs after the 2014 election.

    The two big parties are so threatened by the Greens' slow but steady increase in support that the spotlight on the likes of United Future suits them very well. Ignore the pests and they'll go away: they won't.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Deborah,

    If you go with the ‘living in the electorate’ criterion, people can get ruled in or out by a street or two, which seems a little arbitrary. Better to look at their credentials

    You have never lived in Brighton. It is a little ... insular. When I first moved out there I met people proud to tell me they "only went over the bridge" (ie to town) a couple of times a year. Neighbourhood factionalism is so entrenched that South Shore. South Brighton, New Brighton, North Beach and North Shore all regard themselves as totally separate tribes, even though they are parked next to each other down a 10km (? maybe a little more or less) stretch by the beach.

    Not the kind of place to welcome incomers (after 12 years living there I was only just being accepted as "from round here'' ).

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Hebe,

    North Shore

    cute

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Hebe,

    online polls are bollocks, technically speaking

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Hebe,

    They could try and stop multiple voting with IP, cookie and browser profile tracking, or use a Captcha which would probably reduce their voting totals down to double figures.

    But the "poll" would still be horribly unrepresentative - Stuff did an alternative census which, IIRC (they've deleted the results) showed 35% of NZers earning more than $100k a year and a similarly out of kilter percentage being male.

    It's just part of a deliberate policy of convincing us that everyone thinks the along the same lines as Dead White Men.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Lilith __, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    I note that the Stuff article carefully says “there is speculation” and does not say who is doing the speculating.

    Someone told them in the pub.

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3894 posts Report Reply

  • Moz, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    I note that the Stuff article carefully says “there is speculation” and does not say who is doing the speculating.

    “My colleague thought it would be funny if Labour put up a Claytons candidate”.

    Sydney, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 1233 posts Report Reply

  • FletcherB, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    If the Greens are running anyone, and have any sense, they’ll stand Mathers.

    You know, I'm not in ch-ch, and who stands and who gets elected doesnt affect me much at all...

    But I really dont like the practise of any party standing people who are already in parliament on their list, as candidates in a by-election.... because if/when they win... the person 'elected' doesnt get to enter parliament... someone else from the party list does.

    If you want person X to get into parliament by winning that seat, then stand them in that seat.... and if they are relatively unknown... have all your "names" out there supporting them on the hustings.

    West Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 893 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Deborah,

    I don’t think that ‘living in the electorate’ is a necessary criterion to meet.

    It really doesn't, but if you're making an argument that the other bastards are out of touch, elitist douche wagons it's a factor you might want to think about.

    But I really dont like the practise of any party standing people who are already in parliament on their list,

    Fletcher: You have my sympathies, but in the end I think the best place to punish parties that use their lists for incumbent insurance or hack recycling is at the only poll that really matters. Otherwise, as they say in Texas, you dance with the one who brung you.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Hebe,

    Another possibility is John Kelcher, who stood against Cosgrove in Waimak (costing Labour the seat), and who lives nearby.

    You're going to need some pretty solid evidence to back up this claim. Why is it you believe Kelcher supporters would have gone over to Cosgrove if the Greens had stood someone else, or no-one at all? 11% of Green Party voters in Waimakariri voted for Kate Wilkinson, would some not have voted for someone else, or the National candidate, or not at all?

    I'm not ruling out that you are right, but your implicit claim that the 1197 people who voted for John Kelcher rather than Clayton Cosgrove, knowing that their choice couldn't win, and knowing that Clayton Cosgrove might not win if they didn't support him, really wanted Clayton Cosgrove to be their MP that much more than they wanted Kate Wilkinson doesn't strike me as obviously true.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Graeme Edgeler,

    John Kelcher's aimed for his supporters to give the Greens the party vote and to vote for Cosgrove for the electorate (thereby having Wilkinson come in on the National list rather than winning another seat). The message was not entirely taken on board by the voters. I don't know what the Greens' official position on that was.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • David Moorhouse, in reply to Emma Hart,

    Welcome on board, Emma

    Since Oct 2012 • 1 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Hebe,

    The message was not entirely taken on board by the voters.

    Which means either it was not communicated terribly well, or those damn pesky voters kicked Cosgrove's tyres, looked under the hood and didn't much like what they saw.

    This might be a dangerous thing to say on line among politics nerds, but we can come up with all the clever "strategic" votes we like. Doesn't mean anyone does, or should, take a blind bit of notice. Having seen what happened in Wellington Central after Bolger very public fucked our candidate over in 1996, I've come to the conclusion that there is such a thing as being so smart you're stupid. Bolger may well have thought gutting the electorate organization and activist base in Wellington Central was acceptable collateral damage, but it sure didn't seem that way from the flaxroots.

    From a very different perspective, I totally agree with Emma. It's very easy for the media/party elite to get fixated on the 'big picture', but elections are fought - and won - on the ground. You want people to engage, do the scut work and (most importantly) turn out on E-Day to vote taking your base for granted - and treating everyone else like idiots who will just come to their senses eventually -- isn't going to get the job done.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Which means either it was not communicated terribly well, or those damn pesky voters kicked Cosgrove's tyres, looked under the hood and didn't much like what they saw.

    Green voters don't seem terribly strategic on the whole. They can be irritatingly principled; I'm willing to hold my nose and vote for the bigger picture at times, but most Greens I know won't.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Hebe,

    Or we realize that while electorate contests might be terribly fun for the media, who like nothing better than to reduce politics to a rugby game as to whether the guy from one end of town can out run the guy from the other end, the party vote is really the only thing that counts.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    I've come to the conclusion that there is such a thing as being so smart you're stupid.

    The Americans would likely call it "too smart to fail". Chris Hayes' Twilight of the Elites immediately comes to mind.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5443 posts Report Reply

  • Darel Hall,

    There are plenty of good Labour candidates for selection who come from “round here”. Clayton isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but he has done a good job for Labour in an electorate which is National/ NZ First. But it is difficult to jump electorates just because it is difficult. Either you’re from there or you aren’t.

    In defence of Brendan Burns. The reason he lost CHCH Central is because his margin left the city. By August 2011 it was on public record that there were 2323 fewer voters in CHCH Central. These people were primarily from earthquake affected areas of Avonside and some Richmond and the White zone in the central city.

    In 2008 Brendon netted 647 votes against Wagner in Avonside and Richmond scoring 62% of the head to head vote in both suburbs. The central city was a tie. He had a majority of 935.

    Avonside and Richmond have deprivation index 9. These are largely poorer people that are usually attracted to Labour.

    The central city was a strong party vote Green but electorate vote Brendon. Three of the best booths for the PV Green netted Brendon 210 votes in 2008.

    I believe that Brendon over focused on his earthquake affected constituents and suffered the consequences because most of his electorate were moderately affected to not much affected. Many of those that were affected left the electorate.

    He lost by 47.

    Christchurch • Since May 2007 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Darel Hall,

    Brendan did a great job in Chch Central, and it was a shame he lost. Incidentally, what was the turnout of still-resident voters like in Central last time? Maybe a higher turn-out would unseat Nicky Wagner.

    All the Christchurch Labour MPs -- and National and Green MPs -- have worked like buggery since the earthquakes started and deserve to be thanked for it.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

  • Darel Hall, in reply to Hebe,

    The loss was through lack of attention to Shirley and Papnui. The lower turnout wasn't The key.

    Christchurch • Since May 2007 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • peterpeasant,

    You are so correct!
    The LP does not connect with voters. Voters do not turn up.
    LP caucus continues shifting deck chairs on sinking ship.

    No wonder Dalziell wants out like a lot of very disillusioned ex and soon to be ex LP members

    new zealand • Since Oct 2010 • 39 posts Report Reply

  • Darel Hall, in reply to peterpeasant,

    The type of person we need is someone credible to the people of the electorate such that they will work for the candidate to get them elected. That probably means someone from the area, or someone with a very good claim to be connected with the area. Given everything, it seems more likely to be someone who has been through the worst of it.

    The Party would do better by not trying to finesse an outcome and parachute in a candidate to remedy a perceived "strategic" representative deficiency, such as a particular demographic.

    The strategic deficiency is someone credible from and to CHCH East.

    Christchurch • Since May 2007 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • Hebe, in reply to Darel Hall,

    The Party would do better by not trying to finesse an outcome and parachute in a candidate to remedy a perceived "strategic" representative deficiency, such as a particular demographic

    The Labour hierarchy would be surprised at the hammering they would get in East if they tried that approach. Might not lose the seat this time but it would be possible next year.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report Reply

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