Polity by Rob Salmond

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Polity: Poll Soup

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  • Sacha, in reply to Mr Mark,

    Grumpollie (Andrew R at Colmar Brunton ?)

    yes it is.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19735 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Overal about 70% of voters in the 11 survey gave the same answer for who they voted for in the last election compared with who they said they voted for in the 08 one.

    My impression is it is a lot about the "distance" people place parties from each other in the reconstruction of memory. National voters seemed to see it as a party by itself in '11, so were pretty good remembering if they voted National last time, but a majority of Act voters thought they had previously voted for National (but then a majority of Act voters liked National better than Act, so I suspect were just trying to vote strategically and don't remember the details). Green voters tended to think they voted for Labour, and Labour voters think they voted for National or Greens (among those remembering incorrectly). New Zealand First and United Future had National and Labour memories.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    70%?? Wow! That's shocking. I wonder if forgetting is correlated to any of the other variables. Low interest in politics, perhaps (jinterest). That would be a fun one to model.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to BenWilson,

    I might look into it- but I don't think it will be uniform on jinterest. For example there may be different levels of interest between people getting confused over did they vote for Labour or National, and the people who forget they voted strategically for National by actually voting for Act.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to David Hood,

    I might also investigate, although not any time soon.

    I wouldn't expect it to be "uniform" on jinterest! That was just a suggestion of one of the many variables that could contribute to political forgetfulness, that might have correlation. As I said, could be fun to model.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    How were these surveys conducted, and what motivation did those surveyed have to provide accurate information? Given that the ballot box is supposed to be confidential, and that survey-takers’ identity has to be known in order to follow up the same person later, we shouldn’t necessarily expect voters to give pollsters honest answers, so 30% disagreement on a follow-up survey doesn’t sound quite so unlikely.
    (But, to the extent that disagreement results from deliberate misinformation in one or both surveys, rather than forgetfulness, one might expect a correlation with variables related to concern for privacy. Was anything like that measured?)

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1938 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to linger,

    That's a problem with any survey at all, really. Either it's completely anonymous so you can't even check whether people are deliberately messing with it (as can happen with internet polls), or it's not and people might feel afraid in some way to answer honestly. I don't know how you can possibly control those things. Instead you caveat your knowledge to that limitation: "Given that the respondents answered honestly, to the best of their ability". Apart from that, presumably most of it rides on the surveyors stating that the identities of the respondents is not made public. I'd be surprised if 30% of the population is that distrustful of an academic study they agreed to, to the extent they'd deliberately muddle their responses.

    In other words, surely the null hypothesis is just that they forgot (we can't know which time).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Looking at the responses, it looks more to me like confusion than bloody mindedness- particular since people who support the same party tend to share misidentification with other members of the party (for example Green voters say Labour rather than ACT or National). I think it is just that we don't normally get to see how much memory is constructed.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • andin,

    But the analysis of the polls this week has been poor.

    not just that this ...thing?... appears in the entertainment? section of Stuff
    So Guy Williams ? Is he on TV or something? Is this an attempt at a joke? If it is its pretty lousy.
    The author is a very bad writer and shallow thinker judging by this load of dross, or maybe he's trying to come across as just that. Theres a lot of cliched whining about Greens not wearing shoes and Labour lacking charisma? FFS I would prefer someone who can do the job johnkey isnt Picking charisma is a mugs game usually indulged in by numbnuts and teenyboppers. Which are you Guy?

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1890 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to andin,

    So Guy Williams ? Is he on TV or something? Is this an attempt at a joke? If it is its pretty lousy.

    Fairfax still trying to grow their own Steve Braunias.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Fairfax still trying to grow their own Steve Braunias.

    A tad insulting to Steve Braunias ;) TV 3 at it again. I think since Jono and Ben shifted time slots, it deteriorated and Guy Williams really is their shock jock and that's all but he does insult MPs equally. I guess the TV format portrays that better than print.The clickbait shit really does annoy me in what's supposed to be our biggest newspapers. And also, 7 days starts with a plug for Dai Henwoods show on 3 with one on the panel recently being lambasted by Corbett for suggesting Joyce was a fuckwit. So I figure the new format is ' make the audience laugh at the expense of others '? Or they are just catering to the lowest common denominator, lager louts or John key fans, same, same.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Fairfax still trying to grow their own Steve Braunias.

    'The Braunias that wouldn't die'?

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7948 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    Fairfax still trying to grow their own Steve Braunias.

    'The Braunias that wouldn't die'?

    Perhaps it's their practice of slapping on a big fat "Satire" label - or sometimes not. Is it something they leave up to the subs?

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

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