'The Braunias that wouldn't die'?

A tad insulting to Steve Braunias ;) TV 3 at it again. I think since Jono and Ben shifted time slots, it deteriorated and Guy Williams really is their shock jock and that's all but he does insult MPs equally. I…

Fairfax still trying to grow their own Steve Braunias.

I wouldn't expect it to be "uniform" on jinterest! That was just a suggestion of one of the many variables that could contribute to political forgetfulness, that might have correlation. As I said, could be fun to model.

My impression is it is a lot about the "distance" people place parties from each other…

yes it is.

Yes, an actual study that asked them closer to the time is more reliable than getting them to dredge back. How much more reliable? One to look into, considering that a longitudinal study is more expensive and also the opportunity has…

What struck me was the frailty of human memory- the people who gave different answers to the question "who did you vote for in 2008?" between when they were asked the question in 2008, and…

There are 2 big clusters-

A bunch (42/367) of non-voters feel the same about National and Labour, neither liking nor disliking them.…

Just checked this and you're right. Thanks. It does still, I think, point to the complexity of the…

I'd have to look a bit harder to see if they're No-Vote or just NA (R-style), but yes, they should be accounted for. They could be…

My first thought as well, but it would tell you where people entering the political process were placing themselves.

No it’s not him (he seems like a very reasonable fellow though)

For the record, the Andrew R posting here is not the Andrew R from Colmar Brunton :)

When posting here I use my full name.

1) NZF voters that want to change the government. Think of them as 'Labour leaning NZF', or "anti-National NZF' or whatever.

2) National party voters who really don't like Winston Peters. There's a lot of them,…

Also looks like quite a big move from NZF to National.

Just some thoughts, David – it could also be handy to make a net flow tally which has only the upper triangle, because we…

Just another "Soundbite"

This…

So, at the decisive 2008 General Election:

About 140,000 former Labour voters swing to the Nats
20,000 Nats swing to Labour
23,000 Lab voters move to Non-Voting
10,000 Nats also stay at home on Election Day
33,000 former NZFers swing to the Nats…

I agree...

And their support is worthless anyway because they don’t vote. .

If they continue to not vote, then sure it's worth nothing... but many suspect it's easier to convert them from not voting to voting, (ie. from not counting to…

I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve been polled…

What this isn't showing, because I am just focusing on the L,H

Yes, there was a one off (not in 11) big move from Labour to National. There was also a big move of Greens to Labour of about the same order as a percentage, but the Green donor size was smaller.

Still a lot larger proportion going to no vote from Labour than National, which adds up over time.

Some very interesting Roy Morgan data on Non-Voters' Party preferences by Age 2014
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1409/S00256/busting-non-voter-pattern-myths-election-data-consortium.htm

And ... A few surveys on Non-Voter Characteristics

2008-11 New Zealand General Social Survey
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/people_and_communities/Well-being/civic-human-rights/non-voters-2008-2011-gen-elections.aspx

2014 Non-Voter Satisfaction Survey
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/election-results-and-reporting/voter-and-non-voter-satisfaction-survey

http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/research/voter-and-non-voter-surveys

Young Non-Voters
http://www.mm-research.com/Young+People's+Participation+in+the+Voting+Process

that's him, yes.

The 2008-11 stats are very interesting.

But, I'd especially like to see 2005-08. That's the bone-of-contention in this wee debate – the Election where the decisive Left-to-Right swing occurred.

Lab down 7 points
Left Bloc down 6 points
Clark Govt Bloc down 7 points

Nats up 6
Right…

It's always useful to be reminded that a question has been chewed over before.

A few posts from some years back ...

... Grumpollie (Andrew R at Colmar Brunton ?) analyses the New Zealand Election Study data on those of the missing million with a party preference in 2008 and 2011
https://grumpollie.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/if-everyone-got-out-to-vote-in-2011-what-difference-would-it-have-made/

He was responding to Danyl's Dim-Post discussion
https://dimpost.wordpress.com/2013/11/14/i-just-cannot-let-this-go-by/#comments

and to…

The movement between National and Labour is pretty much a wash, but Labour lost a lot more of their support to the Did Not Vote as a percentage than National lost to that group (it was about the…

But…

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Going from memory (I can't locate the stories I wrote at the time), the findings showed the split, while it favoured the left, was only of a small margin.

Unfortunately…

The post-mortem of the UK election by the polling companies confronted the question of why their…

I wouldn't have thought so. How do you figure that out?

National ran a well orchestrated campaign that delighted their followers and alienated their opponents, while the opposition – umm – didn't.

(1) Although I haven't checked, I'd say the December Herald-Digi outlier (Nat 51% / Govt 55% – a massive 10 points ahead of the Oppo) probably played a crucial role in the fall of the Nat/Govt Bloc average in Jan-Feb 2016.

(2) Bear in mind that there's a…

In the US at the moment, large turnout is seen as favouring Sanders and Trump (bringing in people who otherwise…

I'm curious if you know how many, and how you know. Longitudinal studies aren't that common. It's common to say "Labour lost…

I also hear there is a lot of National Party money (of which they…

Labour lost a whole swathe of voters to National at the 2008 General Election – and they weren't lifelong/core Lab voters who saw the…

The bad news: about half the missing million are probably National-leaning voters.

Parliament and politics kicks off in February every year, but the public don't welcome the return (by "public" I mean people whose idea of fun is music festivals and cricket and a swim, not watching points of order in the House).

These 'State…

Absolutely. It's close.

Yes, 1 in 12 National voters switching would get things closer. However, that's not the only way the gap could be closed, and…

Saying that Labour especially could really do with some serious work on their messaging – case…