Polity by Rob Salmond

Indeed, the whole government agenda, their budgets and whole laissez faire direction are mere fantasy to most of us. The so called “Kiwi dream” is also a fake, it is not what most think it is, as it is simply nothing but a modern day snake oil salesman’s pitch to entice people into economic activity that will in the end not deliver what the dream is supposed to deliver.

There is NO ‘Kiwi Dream’, it is as fake as the “American Dream”, as it relies on immigration, on population growth, and getting new residents and citizens do the hard and dirty work, to “lift” the born and bred ones higher. We see this in a perfect example with the Auckland housing market, as those Kiwis who own a home, who may have been working long and hard enough, to pay a deposit, pay debt off, to have such investment, get lifted up by equity increases, allowing them to use that wealth growth to go shopping on more credit, or to expand a property portfolio they have themselves.

You are “in” if you got that far, you have to “prove yourself” if you are a newcomer, and more and more newcomers, apart from those highly qualified and already well off, that come here, they are the servants and mercenaries, that keep the machinery going, to enable the earlier mentioned ones to get wealthier and better off by the day.

The newbies, that is those that do not come with wealth themselves, they fuel the system, they deliver the work, to keep it all going, to keep a dream alive, that remains to be nothing but a dream to most.

That is how the capitalist system works, selling dreams, and hence even the lowest paid, the unemployed, the disadvantaged, they do not challenge the system, they do not rebel, as they cling to some ridiculous dream that will most likely never deliver for them.

And this is where New Zealand is right now, a fake economy, built on a BS dream, that seems to still serve and benefit enough, who have some stake-hold in all this, but the ones not part of the winners are growing by the day.

It is time to end the dream and BS, as only hard work, saving and investment in the New Zealand future will ensure this nation and economy survives, but most still cling to nonsensical illusions, that it can all be provided by selling this country out, selling real estate, selling farms, selling investment and selling themselves.

Sorry, the time will come where this system will hit the wall, it is simply not a plan, it is a fake dream and illusion, that most will wake up soon like from a bad dream.

Bill English has only done as much to keep this BS “dream” going, for those that dream they are still in control and doing well. All this could be over if the ones that are cheated stand up tomorrow and say, enough is enough, we have no more of this BS.

The first thing needed then is a major new economic and social plan and direction for this country, and to make sure those that want to take part commit themselves, as we cannot have endless immigration, open trade and hope that all this will guarantee us a solid future for generations. Without a firm commitment to where you live, where you work, where you raise your kids, where you believe your future lies, there is no secure plan for any country. The modern day transitional nature of people working and living in different places and hoping all goes well, results in every one to themselves, saving for him or herself and perhaps direct offspring, that is carried away any time and day, and that is not committed to any geographic location. You cannot plan any economy like this being the norm we have. I regret, most do not see this and do not get it.

Why does the media report 'over production in Europe' when talking about the global milk market?

Meanwhile, the government continues to put money into irrigation schemes.

I'm so old I remember when public address wasn't Rob Salmond's personal NATIONAL IS BAD MMMKAY blog

I’m so old I remember when public address wasn’t Rob Salmond’s personal NATIONAL IS BAD MMMKAY blog

I did wonder if three seperate budget posts from Rob was really necessary. One considered post would probably be more effective and keep the related discussion in one place.

beyond the pale?

three separate budget posts from Rob

it has been 'Salmond chanted evening' indeed...
any more posts and one could take a fence!
;- )

And a lovely tactful spelling correction in your quoted text, Ian! (A word that trips up an awful lot of people...)

Whoops!

Would that all go into policing the laws that prevent polluting them, paying policy people to write more policy, and or actually filtering the water?

In the meantime, the "farmer" found guilty of diverting a Taranaki stream turns out to be a "landfarmer", i.e. his "farm" was a toxic waste dump.

Would that all go into policing the laws that prevent polluting them, paying policy people to write more policy, and or actually filtering the water?

None of the above, according to Russell Norman.

OK, what about water? There's the $100 million allocated to the "Freshwater Improvement Fund".

Sounds good?

But in an Orwellian twist the "Freshwater Improvement Fund" can be spent on subsidising irrigation schemes according to the Ministry 'for' the Environment. And irrigation schemes cause water pollution by reducing flows and increasing intensive dairying and its pollution.

So not only does the Government subsidise irrigation schemes through the Crown Irrigation Fund ($120 million) and the Irrigation Acceleration Fund ($60 million), but the Freshwater Improvement Fund, which could be cleaning up the pollution created by these irrigation schemes, can also be spent on ... more irrigation schemes.

If you don't laugh you'd cry.

This kind of forecast bias is due to the methodology of forecasting. Since Crystal ball gazing is considered unscientific the forecast is always for things to return to where they are normally. So in housing's case that means pre-housing inflation madness... (and there is plenty of evidence that NZ housing booms do eventually stop) .... and for Dairy Prices that means long run norms.

The consequence of higher than expected house price inflation is likely to mean a stronger than expected Auckland economy. The consequence of the Dairy price overestimation a weaker rural one. In the end these two things may roughly cancel each other out.

In the end these two things may roughly cancel each other out

A highly unlikely outcome if, guided by these forecasts, the government does precisely the wrong thing about both.

The last year where we have real data now is 2014/5 (released today), when house prices rose 11.1%. As late as May 2015, when that fiscal year was already over, Treasury was forecasting house prices or only 6.8%. They were miles out, even after the fact.

For this year and the 2016/7 year, Treasury have had to continualy revise their forecsts up and up and up as we draw nearer.

For the 2015/6 year just ended, Treasury currently thinks house prices rose by 8.9%. A year ago, they thought that number would be 5.2%. A year before that, 4.3%. It’s the same story for the 2016/7 year, with the forecast price rises changing from 2.5% to 3% to 7.7% as we get closer to the time.

Minor point, but this year Treasury moved its economic forecasts from the March to June year to match up with fiscal forecasts.

The 8.9% forecast for 15/16 and the 11.1% actual for 14/15 published this week are both June years, not March.

To enable comparison with previous forecasts, Treasury included an additional table at the end of the online BEFU, which has a forecast 9.9% for the year to March 2016, and an actual increase of 9.0% in the year to March 2015.

I'm so old I remember when public address wasn't Rob Salmond's personal NATIONAL IS BAD MMMKAY blog

I like Rob's articles much better when they don't seem like they have come from the printing presses of Labour's PR dept.

There is some good analysis and description of the issues here but I feel like many of his articles would be more at home on the Labour Party blog than on PA.

In terms of the actual Treasury estimates, the one I find most laughable it the expectation that net immigration will fall to 12,000 from 68,000 within three years. John Key keeps touting the immigration figure as a measure of his government's success. An 80% fall in immigration without any policy change seems like a joke.

I haven't posted here in a long time, but I always enjoy reading the posts - great range, well-written etc etc. But how bloody depressing to read the responses to this post. Every media report about National fucking up somehow turns into "but Labour is hopeless because they didn't take advantage of it" the reprinting of government press releases on the Dompost front page quickly turns into "Labour isn't doing well responding to the budget." And now it's happening on HERE. Let's debate the substance of a budget that was setting the country up for tax cuts and not addressing the reduction in support for the superannuation fund (Bill English was pathetic about that on RNZ - he couldn't recall the figures...), or housing or poverty or education (except more charter schools) or health (reducing funding) etc etc. Thanks Rob, for giving an alternative view, I don't care what your stripe is, keep it up. We need to hear from you.

One answer to the “why vote National Light?” question is, because otherwise we all get National Dark, and it can get extremely dark down at the bottom when they’re in. But that answer (like the question itself) assumes a FPP mindset. There are other alternatives, however much they may be diluted in government by the bland mess that Labour currently is. So if you don't like what National is doing, you don't have to vote Labour -- though you should vote for something.
(One thing that can be said about Labour – they won’t actively try to fuck people over as consistently as National does. But I’m not sure that’s a winning ad campaign for them.)

Today's Tremain

Breaking news on the Herald. Labour has finally realised that we operate under an MMP system.

YES! It's the beginning of possibility for change, and boy, do we need it.